Toyota Motor Corporation (TM) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $213B · ISIN US8923313071
What is Toyota Motor Corporation really worth?
Below-average quality, trading 17% below our fair value of $228.25.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 28, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 7 days ago
Share price +5.7% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($196.77). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (46/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- A fairly wide model range ($196.77 to $434.32) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (12 months)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Aug 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
12‑month range $166.50 – $192.84 · fair‑value band $196.77 – $434.32 · the $188.78 price screens below the $228.25 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Aug 28, 2026.
Analysis
Toyota Motor Corporation (TM) currently trades at $188.78, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $228.25, implying the stock looks roughly 17.3% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $491.45 per share, and 15 of the 22 models we run sit above the $188.78 price. Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $109.03, and 7 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Toyota Motor Corporation generated revenue of ¥50.7T at a net margin of 7.6%. Revenue grew 1.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.2%. Net debt stands at ¥30.7T. Fundamentals as of Aug 28, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $196.77 (bear case) to $434.32 (bull case); at $188.78, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 15% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −17% fair-value upside, at 21%, TM screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($491.45) versus Economic Profit ($109.03). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (77).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 28, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 45 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 68
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Toyota Motor Corporation designs, manufactures, assembles, and sells passenger vehicles, minivans and commercial vehicles, and related parts and accessories in Japan, North America, Europe, Asia, Central and South America, Oceania, Africa, the Middle East, and internationally.
Full company description
Toyota Motor Corporation designs, manufactures, assembles, and sells passenger vehicles, minivans and commercial vehicles, and related parts and accessories in Japan, North America, Europe, Asia, Central and South America, Oceania, Africa, the Middle East, and internationally. The company operates through Automotive, Financial Services, and All Other segments. The company offers subcompact and compact cars; mini-vehicles; mid-size, luxury, sports, and specialty cars; recreational and sport-utility vehicles; pickup trucks; minivans; trucks; and buses. It also develops and sells battery and hybrid electric vehicles and batteries. In addition, the company provides financial services, such as retail financing and leasing, wholesale financing, insurance, and credit cards. Further, it operates GAZOO.com, a web portal for automobile information, as well as engages in telecommunications and other businesses. It offers vehicles under the Toyota and Lexus brand names. It has strategic manufacturing alliance with Joby Aviation, Inc. to establish a joint venture to realize air mobility. Toyota Motor Corporation was founded in 1933 and is headquartered in Toyota, Japan.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Toyota Motor Corporation reported revenue of ¥50.7T in FY2026 versus ¥31.4T in FY2022, a compound +12.7%/yr. Reported net income was ¥4.0T in FY2026, compounding +8.7%/yr from FY2022.
of which total revenue +6.3 % · buybacks/dilution +1.9 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Peer Group
Auto Manufacturers · 115 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Auto Manufacturers median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 45/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Auto Manufacturers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 28, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BYD Company 81211 | HK$76.90 | HK$48.59 | −37% |
| Hyundai Motor Company 005380 | 418,500 KRW | 567,393 KRW | +36% |
| Ferrari N.V RACE | €355.50 | €167.67 | −53% |
| General Motors Company GM | $86.27 | $52.69 | −39% |
| Ford Motor Company F | $13.88 | $11.51 | −17% |
| Mercedes-Benz Group MBG | €46.95 | €106.16 | +126% |
| Dr. Ing. h.c. F. Porsche AG P911 | €43.91 | €17.34 | −61% |
| Maruti Suzuki India Limited MARUTI | ₹12,694 | ₹8,236 | −35% |
| Volkswagen AG VOW3 | €77.42 | €248.34 | +221% |
| Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft BMW | €62.64 | €140.42 | +124% |
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