Toyota Motor Corporation (TM) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Toyota Motor Corporation $210, price $187, upside +12.7%, quality 47 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 25, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $117.28 – $244.46 · fair‑value band $99.87 – $387.16 · the $186.72 price screens below the $210.48 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 25, 2026.
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Toyota Motor Corporation designs, manufactures, assembles, and sells passenger vehicles, minivans and commercial vehicles, and related parts and accessories in Japan, North America, Europe, Asia, Central and South America, Oceania, Africa, the Middle East, and internationally.
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Toyota Motor Corporation designs, manufactures, assembles, and sells passenger vehicles, minivans and commercial vehicles, and related parts and accessories in Japan, North America, Europe, Asia, Central and South America, Oceania, Africa, the Middle East, and internationally. The company operates through Automotive, Financial Services, and All Other segments. The company offers subcompact and compact cars; mini-vehicles; mid-size, luxury, sports, and specialty cars; recreational and sport-utility vehicles; pickup trucks; minivans; trucks; and buses. It also develops and sells battery and hybrid electric vehicles and batteries. In addition, the company provides financial services, such as retail financing and leasing, wholesale financing, insurance, and credit cards. Further, it operates GAZOO.com, a web portal for automobile information, as well as engages in telecommunications and other businesses. It offers vehicles under the Toyota and Lexus brand names. Toyota Motor Corporation was founded in 1933 and is headquartered in Toyota, Japan.
Stock analysis
Toyota Motor Corporation ADR (TM) currently trades at $186.72, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $210.48, implying the stock looks roughly 11.3% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $447.19 per share, and 13 of the 22 models we run sit above the $186.72 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $99.21, and 9 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $99.87 (bear) to $387.16 (bull), the price of $186.72 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Toyota Motor Corporation ADR reported revenue of ¥50.7T in FY2026 versus ¥31.4T in FY2022, a compound +12.7%/yr. Reported net income was ¥4.0T in FY2026, compounding +8.7%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $243B · P/E ratio 8.4 · P/S ratio 0.66 · EPS (TTM) $22.18 · Dividend yield 3.3% · Net margin 7.9% · Return on equity 12.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 64 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −2% fair-value upside, at 13%, TM screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $99.87Fair Value $210.48Bull $387.16
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.2%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.0% a year
Revenue growth 37 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+17.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+14.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.14% vs 8%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8% → 7%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+36.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +33.5% a year for the price and +1.7% for the forecasts.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto Manufacturers · 116 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score46 · Below median
Fair Value upside+11% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)10% · Above median
Return on assets2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)8% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)5% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth2% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)3.3% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.64× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Auto Manufacturers median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Toyota Motor Corporation ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TM
Frequently asked questions
Is Toyota Motor Corporation (TM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 25, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $210.48 versus a price of $186.72, about +13% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of TM?
Our model-based fair value for Toyota Motor Corporation ADR is $210.48 (as of Sep 25, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $186.72.
What is the quality score of TM?
Toyota Motor Corporation ADR has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Toyota Motor Corporation (TM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $210.48 (as of Sep 25, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $99.87, optimistic scenario $387.16. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Toyota Motor Corporation ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $210.48, about +13% upside versus a price of $186.72 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $99.87, optimistic scenario $387.16. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Toyota Motor Corporation (TM)?
Toyota Motor Corporation ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥52.0T (latest available figure, as of Sep 25, 2026).
Does Toyota Motor Corporation ADR pay a dividend?
Toyota Motor Corporation ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.26% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 25, 2026).
What growth is priced into Toyota Motor Corporation (TM)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Toyota Motor Corporation ADR would have to grow free cash flow by +36.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 7.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +13.2 % per year. As of Sep 25, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TM use?
Our models discount Toyota Motor Corporation ADR at 7.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (mega), damped by beta 0.34, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Toyota Motor Corporation ADR that is +36.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (7.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Toyota Motor Corporation (TM) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Toyota Motor Corporation ADR grew +13.2 % a year. The price currently implies +36.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Toyota Motor Corporation (TM) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Toyota Motor Corporation ADR (+36.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Toyota Motor Corporation (TM)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.54 %: that much free cash flow Toyota Motor Corporation ADR produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (7.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Toyota Motor Corporation (TM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Toyota Motor Corporation ADR it is $210.48 per share (as of Sep 25, 2026), against a price of $186.72. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Toyota Motor Corporation ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 25, 2026, TM trades below its calculated fair value: price $186.72, fair value $210.48, a gap of about +13% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TM?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($186.72); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($210.48). For Toyota Motor Corporation ADR the two are $23.76 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Toyota Motor Corporation ADR worth?
The market values Toyota Motor Corporation ADR at about $243B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 25, 2026). Per share that is $186.72; our models calculate a fair value of $210.48 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TM?
Our models span a range for Toyota Motor Corporation ADR: cautious scenario $99.87, base $210.48, optimistic $387.16 per share (as of Sep 25, 2026, price $186.72). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TM?
Toyota Motor Corporation ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.4 (as of Sep 25, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $210.48 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.5, P/B 1.0, P/S 0.8, EV/EBITDA 9.3.
What is the PEG ratio of TM?
The PEG ratio of Toyota Motor Corporation ADR is 1.54 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 25, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Toyota Motor Corporation (TM)?
Balance-sheet figures for Toyota Motor Corporation ADR (as of Sep 25, 2026): return on equity 10.2%, debt of 0.64 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TM from its 52-week high?
Toyota Motor Corporation ADR trades at $186.72, about 24% below its 52-week high of $244.46 and 12% above the low of $166.50 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $210.48 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Toyota Motor Corporation ADR?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Tesla, Inc, BYD Company, Hyundai Motor Company, General Motors Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Toyota Motor Corporation ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 25, 2026: price $186.72, calculated fair value $210.48 (+13%), Quality Score 47/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TM calculated?
We run Toyota Motor Corporation ADR through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $210.48, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Toyota Motor Corporation ADR currently trades 13 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Toyota Motor Corporation (TM)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was $186.72. Our model-based fair value is $210.48, about +13% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Toyota Motor Corporation ADR right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($99.87 to $387.16). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Toyota Motor Corporation (TM) come from?
Earnings per share at Toyota Motor Corporation ADR grew +11.0 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.2 %, EBIT margin +0.6 %, tax rate +0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Toyota Motor Corporation ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of Toyota Motor Corporation (TM)?
The market capitalisation of Toyota Motor Corporation ADR is $243B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Toyota Motor Corporation (TM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Toyota Motor Corporation ADR is 0.66 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Toyota Motor Corporation (TM)?
Earnings per share at Toyota Motor Corporation ADR are $22.18 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Toyota Motor Corporation (TM)?
The dividend yield of Toyota Motor Corporation ADR is 3.3% (payout 27.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Toyota Motor Corporation (TM)?
The net margin of Toyota Motor Corporation ADR is 7.9% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Toyota Motor Corporation (TM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Toyota Motor Corporation ADR is 12.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Toyota Motor Corporation (TM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Toyota Motor Corporation ADR is 4.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Toyota Motor Corporation (TM)?
The operating margin of Toyota Motor Corporation ADR is 7.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Toyota Motor Corporation (TM)?
Revenue at Toyota Motor Corporation ADR is growing +10.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +10.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Toyota Motor Corporation (TM)?
Earnings per share at Toyota Motor Corporation ADR are growing +86.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Toyota Motor Corporation (TM) carry?
The net debt of Toyota Motor Corporation ADR is ¥30.7T (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 51.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 25, 2026