Honda Motor Co Ltd (HMC) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 21, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Honda Motor Co Ltd stock $40.56, price $33.97, upside +19.4%, quality 40 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $18.65 – $34.28 · fair‑value band $19.48 – $77.18 · the $33.97 price screens below the $40.56 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
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Honda Motor Co., Ltd. engages in the development, manufacturing, and distribution of motorcycles, automobiles, and power products in Japan, North America, Europe, Asia, and internationally.
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It operates through four segments: Motorcycle Business, Automobile Business, Financial Services Business, and Power Product and Other Businesses.
The Motorcycle Business segment produces motorcycles, including sports, business, and commuter models; and various off-road vehicles, such as all-terrain vehicles and side-by-sides. The Automobile Business segment offers passenger cars, light trucks, and mini vehicles.
The Financial Services Business segment provides various financial services, including retail lending and leasing services to customers, as well as wholesale financing services to dealers.
The Power Product and Other Businesses manufactures and sells power products, such as general-purpose engines, lawn mowers, generators, water pumps, brush cutters, and tillers. This segment also offers HondaJet aircraft.
The company also sells spare parts; and provides after-sales services through retail dealers directly, as well as through independent distributors and licensees. Honda Motor Co., Ltd. was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Honda Motor Co Ltd (HMC) currently trades at $33.97, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $40.56, implying the stock looks roughly 16.2% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $33.63 per share, and 1 of the 11 models we run sit above the $33.97 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $10.23, and 10 of the 11 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $19.48 (bear) to $77.18 (bull), the price of $33.97 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Honda Motor Co Ltd ADR reported revenue of ¥21.8T in FY2026 versus ¥14.6T in FY2022, a compound +10.6%/yr. Reported net income was −¥424B in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap $47.6B Large · EPS (TTM) $−0.7200 · Dividend yield 3.9% · Net margin −0.8% · Return on equity −0.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.8% · Operating margin 8.8% · Revenue (TTM) ¥22.5T.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 27 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 45% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 9% fair-value upside, at 19%, HMC screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$19.48Fair Value $40.56Bull$77.18
Price $33.97 · Upside +19.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.54/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.6%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.1% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.2%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
5.0% (2021) → −1.9% (2026)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+25.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +22.5% a year for the price and +1.2% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (97 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: Scale in auto manufacturing offers Honda some reach yet the commoditized business produces thin margins and sustained negative returns on equity.
Main risk: Outsourcing vehicle platform development creates new dependencies on external partners that could undermine control over innovation and quality in the core auto operations.
Honda is shifting more resources into next-generation hybrids and outsourcing vehicle platform development to partners like Tata Technologies to rebuild earnings in its core auto business. The strategy leverages existing strengths in powertrains but introduces new dependencies on external execution. Will internal hybrid advances outweigh the risks of diluted control over innovation and quality?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto Manufacturers · 104 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score40 · Below median
Fair Value upside+19.4% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets−1.3% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)−0.8% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)8.8% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)13.5% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)3.9% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.59× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Auto Manufacturers median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Honda Motor Co Ltd ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HMC
Frequently asked questions
Is Honda Motor Co Ltd (HMC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 22, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $40.56 versus a price of $33.97, about +19% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of HMC?
Our model-based fair value for Honda Motor Co Ltd ADR is $40.56 (as of Oct 22, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $33.97.
What is the quality score of HMC?
Honda Motor Co Ltd ADR has a Quality Score of 40/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Honda Motor Co Ltd (HMC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $40.56 (as of Oct 22, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario $19.48, optimistic scenario $77.18. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Honda Motor Co Ltd ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $40.56, about +19% upside versus a price of $33.97 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $19.48, optimistic scenario $77.18. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Honda Motor Co Ltd (HMC)?
Honda Motor Co Ltd ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥22.5T (latest available figure, as of Oct 22, 2026).
Does Honda Motor Co Ltd ADR pay a dividend?
Honda Motor Co Ltd ADR currently shows a dividend yield of 3.89% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 22, 2026).
What growth is priced into Honda Motor Co Ltd (HMC)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Honda Motor Co Ltd ADR would have to grow free cash flow by +25.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +10.6 % per year. As of Oct 22, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HMC use?
Our models discount Honda Motor Co Ltd ADR at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.33, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Honda Motor Co Ltd ADR that is +25.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Honda Motor Co Ltd (HMC) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Honda Motor Co Ltd ADR grew +10.6 % a year. The price currently implies +25.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Honda Motor Co Ltd (HMC) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Honda Motor Co Ltd ADR (+25.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Honda Motor Co Ltd (HMC)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.18 %: that much free cash flow Honda Motor Co Ltd ADR produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Honda Motor Co Ltd (HMC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Honda Motor Co Ltd ADR it is $40.56 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026), against a price of $33.97. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Honda Motor Co Ltd ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 22, 2026, HMC trades below its calculated fair value: price $33.97, fair value $40.56, a gap of about +19% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HMC?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($33.97); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($40.56). For Honda Motor Co Ltd ADR the two are $6.59 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Honda Motor Co Ltd ADR worth?
The market values Honda Motor Co Ltd ADR at about $47.6B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 22, 2026). Per share that is $33.97; our models calculate a fair value of $40.56 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HMC?
Our models span a range for Honda Motor Co Ltd ADR: cautious scenario $19.48, base $40.56, optimistic $77.18 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026, price $33.97). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of HMC?
The PEG ratio of Honda Motor Co Ltd ADR is 3.45 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 22, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Honda Motor Co Ltd (HMC)?
Balance-sheet figures for Honda Motor Co Ltd ADR (as of Oct 22, 2026): return on equity −0.8%, debt of 0.59 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 40/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HMC from its 52-week high?
Honda Motor Co Ltd ADR trades at $33.97, about 1% below its 52-week high of $34.28 and 45% above the low of $23.49 (as of Oct 21, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $40.56 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Honda Motor Co Ltd ADR?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Tesla, Inc, Toyota Motor Corporation, BYD Company, Ferrari N.V, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Honda Motor Co Ltd ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 22, 2026: price $33.97, calculated fair value $40.56 (+19%), Quality Score 40/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HMC calculated?
We run Honda Motor Co Ltd ADR through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $40.56, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.6 % above its aggregate fair value. Honda Motor Co Ltd ADR currently trades 16 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Honda Motor Co Ltd (HMC)?
The closing price on Oct 21, 2026 was $33.97. Our model-based fair value is $40.56, about +19% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Honda Motor Co Ltd ADR right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($19.48 to $77.18). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of Honda Motor Co Ltd (HMC) come from?
Earnings per share at Honda Motor Co Ltd ADR grew +9.9 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.7 %, EBIT margin +2.8 %, tax rate +0.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Honda Motor Co Ltd ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of Honda Motor Co Ltd (HMC)?
The market capitalisation of Honda Motor Co Ltd ADR is $47.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Honda Motor Co Ltd (HMC)?
Earnings per share at Honda Motor Co Ltd ADR are $−0.7200. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Honda Motor Co Ltd (HMC)?
The dividend yield of Honda Motor Co Ltd ADR is 3.9%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Honda Motor Co Ltd (HMC)?
The net margin of Honda Motor Co Ltd ADR is −0.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Honda Motor Co Ltd (HMC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Honda Motor Co Ltd ADR is −0.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Honda Motor Co Ltd (HMC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Honda Motor Co Ltd ADR is 2.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Honda Motor Co Ltd (HMC)?
The operating margin of Honda Motor Co Ltd ADR is 8.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Honda Motor Co Ltd (HMC)?
Revenue at Honda Motor Co Ltd ADR is growing +13.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Honda Motor Co Ltd (HMC)?
Earnings per share at Honda Motor Co Ltd ADR are growing +148% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Honda Motor Co Ltd (HMC) carry?
The net debt of Honda Motor Co Ltd ADR is ¥8.4T (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 35.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Oct 22, 2026