Tesla Inc (TSLA) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $1.5T · ISIN US88160R1014

What is Tesla Inc really worth?

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($27.78). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• Weak quality (37/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
• The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $108.10 – $489.88 · fair‑value band $16.67 – $27.78 · the $376.37 price screens above the $22.22 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.

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Analysis

Tesla Inc (TSLA) currently trades at $376.37, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $22.22, implying the stock looks roughly 1,594.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 37/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $46.93 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the $376.37 price. Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $11.83, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Over the trailing twelve months, Tesla Inc generated revenue of $97.9B at a net margin of 4.0%. Revenue grew 15.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 4.9%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $8.1B. Fundamentals as of Aug 29, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $16.67 (bear case) to $27.78 (bull case); at $376.37, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 38% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −17% fair-value upside, at −94%, TSLA screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $0.7376 per share, which is 3.3 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($46.93) versus Economic Profit ($11.83). Highest evidence: EPV (74).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Tesla, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, leases, and sells electric vehicles, and energy generation and storage systems in the United States, China, and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Automotive; and Energy Generation and Storage.

Full company description

Tesla, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, leases, and sells electric vehicles, and energy generation and storage systems in the United States, China, and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Automotive; and Energy Generation and Storage. The company offers electric vehicles, as well as sells automotive regulatory credits; and non-warranty maintenance services and collision, automotive insurance services, as well as part sales and retail merchandise sale. It also provides sedans and sport utility vehicles through direct and used vehicle sales, a network of Tesla Superchargers, and in-app upgrades; purchase financing and leasing services; services for electric vehicles through its company-owned service locations and Tesla mobile service technicians; and vehicle limited warranties and extended service plans. In addition, the company engages in the design, manufacture, installation, sale, and leasing of solar energy generation and energy storage products, and related services to residential, commercial, and industrial customers and utilities through its website, stores, and galleries, as well as through a network of channel partners. Further, it provides services and repairs to its energy product customers, including under warranty and extended service plans; and various financing options to its residential customers; lithium-ion battery energy storage products, such as Powerwall and Megapack; energy generation products, including solar panels and solar roof; self-driving development and artificial intelligence software, vehicle control and infotainment software, and battery and powertrain. The company was formerly known as Tesla Motors, Inc. and changed its name to Tesla, Inc. in February 2017. Tesla, Inc. was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Austin, Texas.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Tesla Inc reported revenue of $94.8B in FY2025 versus $53.8B in FY2021, a compound +15.2%/yr. Reported net income was $3.8B in FY2025, compounding −9.5%/yr from FY2021.

TSLA screens 1,595% overvalued. Compare with Toyota Motor Corporation →

Peer Group

Auto Manufacturers · 115 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Auto Manufacturers median · lower = cheaper

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 44/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

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