Tesla Inc (TSLA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Tesla Inc $40.97, price $378, upside -89.2%, quality 49 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Structural break:
The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.
!Fair value $40.97 · Strongly overvalued (−89%)
!Quality 49/100
!Mixed Growth(revenue 5y +24.6 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 3.7% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Trails peers(5/13)
!Moderate moat48/100
!Insider activity46/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 25, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $108.10 – $489.88 · fair‑value band $22.60 – $58.02 · the $377.94 price screens above the $40.97 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 25, 2026.
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Tesla, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, leases, and sells electric vehicles, and energy generation and storage systems in the United States, China, and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Automotive; and Energy Generation and Storage.
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Tesla, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, leases, and sells electric vehicles, and energy generation and storage systems in the United States, China, and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Automotive; and Energy Generation and Storage. The company offers electric vehicles, as well as sells automotive regulatory credits; and non-warranty maintenance services and collision, automotive insurance services, as well as part sales and retail merchandise sale. It also provides sedans and sport utility vehicles through direct and used vehicle sales, a network of Tesla Superchargers, and in-app upgrades; purchase financing and leasing services; services for electric vehicles through its company-owned service locations and Tesla mobile service technicians; and vehicle limited warranties and extended service plans. In addition, the company engages in the design, manufacture, installation, sale, and leasing of solar energy generation and energy storage products, and related services to residential, commercial, and industrial customers and utilities through its website, stores, and galleries, as well as through a network of channel partners. Further, it provides services and repairs to its energy product customers, including under warranty and extended service plans; and various financing options to its residential customers; lithium-ion battery energy storage products, such as Powerwall and Megapack; energy generation products, including solar panels and solar roof; self-driving development and artificial intelligence software, vehicle control and infotainment software, and battery and powertrain. The company was formerly known as Tesla Motors, Inc. and changed its name to Tesla, Inc. in February 2017. Tesla, Inc. was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Austin, Texas.
Stock analysis
Tesla Inc (TSLA) currently trades at $377.94, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $40.97, implying the stock looks roughly 822.5% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $44.63 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the $377.94 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $11.25, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $22.60 (bear) to $58.02 (bull), the price of $377.94 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Tesla Inc reported revenue of $94.8B in FY2025 versus $53.8B in FY2021, a compound +15.2%/yr. Reported net income was $3.8B in FY2025, compounding −9.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $1.5T · P/E ratio 343.6 · P/S ratio 13.7 · EPS (TTM) $1.10 · Net margin 4.0% · Return on equity 4.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.9% · Operating margin 1.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 62 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 27% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 3% fair-value upside, at −89%, TSLA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $22.60Fair Value $40.97Bull $58.02
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.8077 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.79/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−2.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+24.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +37.1% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+118.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−0.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−0.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 5%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+60.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+11.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +56.6% a year for the price and +9.3% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto Manufacturers · 116 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score49 · Above median
Fair Value upside−89% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)5% · Below median
Return on assets2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)4% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)1% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth26% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.08× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Auto Manufacturers median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)343.6× · Priciest 25%
P/B18.28× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)14.49× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF241.4× · Priciest 25%
PEG4.53× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 47
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 27
PAST (return on equity)19· sector 21
HEALTH (low debt)96· sector 93
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 54
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tesla Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TSLA
Frequently asked questions
Is Tesla Inc (TSLA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 25, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $40.97 versus a price of $377.94, about −89% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TSLA?
Our model-based fair value for Tesla Inc is $40.97 (as of Sep 25, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $377.94.
What is the quality score of TSLA?
Tesla Inc has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tesla Inc (TSLA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $40.97 (as of Sep 25, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $22.60, optimistic scenario $58.02. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tesla Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $40.97, about −89% upside versus a price of $377.94 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $22.60, optimistic scenario $58.02. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tesla Inc (TSLA)?
Tesla Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $104B (latest available figure, as of Sep 25, 2026).
What growth is priced into Tesla Inc (TSLA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Tesla Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +60.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +24.6 % per year. As of Sep 25, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TSLA use?
Our models discount Tesla Inc at 10.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (mega), damped by beta 1.85, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Tesla Inc that is +60.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Tesla Inc (TSLA) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Tesla Inc grew +24.6 % a year. The price currently implies +60.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Tesla Inc (TSLA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Tesla Inc (+60.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Tesla Inc (TSLA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.46 %: that much free cash flow Tesla Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Tesla Inc (TSLA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tesla Inc it is $40.97 per share (as of Sep 25, 2026), against a price of $377.94. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Tesla Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 25, 2026, TSLA trades above its calculated fair value: price $377.94, fair value $40.97, a gap of about −89% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TSLA?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($377.94); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($40.97). For Tesla Inc the two are $336.97 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tesla Inc worth?
The market values Tesla Inc at about $1.5T (market capitalisation, as of Sep 25, 2026). Per share that is $377.94; our models calculate a fair value of $40.97 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TSLA?
Our models span a range for Tesla Inc: cautious scenario $22.60, base $40.97, optimistic $58.02 per share (as of Sep 25, 2026, price $377.94). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TSLA?
Tesla Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 343.6 (as of Sep 25, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $40.97 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 343.6 (reported for FY2025: 374.2). Other multiples: PEG 4.5, P/B 18.3, P/S 14.5.
What is the PEG ratio of TSLA?
The PEG ratio of Tesla Inc is 4.53 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 25, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tesla Inc (TSLA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tesla Inc (as of Sep 25, 2026): return on equity 4.7%, debt of 0.08 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 49/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TSLA from its 52-week high?
Tesla Inc trades at $377.94, about 23% below its 52-week high of $489.88 and 27% above the low of $298.32 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $40.97 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tesla Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Toyota Motor Corporation, BYD Company, Hyundai Motor Company, General Motors Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tesla Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 25, 2026: price $377.94, calculated fair value $40.97 (−89%), Quality Score 49/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TSLA calculated?
We run Tesla Inc through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $40.97, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Tesla Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tesla Inc (TSLA)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was $377.94. Our model-based fair value is $40.97, about −89% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tesla Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($58.02). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (49/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($22.60 to $58.02) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Tesla Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Tesla Inc (TSLA)?
The market capitalisation of Tesla Inc is $1.5T. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Tesla Inc (TSLA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Tesla Inc is 13.7 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Tesla Inc (TSLA)?
Earnings per share at Tesla Inc are $1.10 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 343.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Tesla Inc (TSLA)?
The net margin of Tesla Inc is 4.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Tesla Inc (TSLA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tesla Inc is 4.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tesla Inc (TSLA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tesla Inc is 8.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tesla Inc (TSLA)?
The operating margin of Tesla Inc is 1.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tesla Inc (TSLA)?
Revenue at Tesla Inc is growing +25.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Tesla Inc (TSLA)?
Earnings per share at Tesla Inc are growing −3.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Tesla Inc (TSLA) hold?
Tesla Inc holds more cash than debt, $8.1B net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Sep 25, 2026