Ferrari NV (RACE) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 21, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Ferrari NV stock $437, price $397, upside +10.0%, quality 74 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $162.13 – $511.75 · fair‑value band $327.72 – $546.21 · the $397.24 price screens below the $436.96 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
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Ferrari N.V., through its subsidiaries, engages in design, engineering, production, and sale of luxury performance sports cars worldwide. It offers sports, track, one-off, and road cars, as well as supercars.
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The company also provides spare parts and engines, as well as after sales, repair, maintenance, and restoration services for cars; and licenses its Ferrari brand to various producers and retailers of luxury and lifestyle goods.
In addition, it operates Ferrari museums in Modena and Maranello; Il Cavallino restaurant in Maranello; and theme parks in Abu Dhabi and Spain.
Further, the company provides direct or indirect finance and leasing services; range of financial and ancillary services; special financing arrangements; and operates franchised and owned Ferrari stores. The company was founded in 1947 and is headquartered in Maranello, Italy.
Stock analysis
Ferrari NV (RACE) currently trades at $397.24, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $436.96, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 9.1%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $289.66 per share, and 2 of the 26 models we run sit above the $397.24 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $54.94, and 24 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $327.72 (bear) to $546.21 (bull), the price of $397.24 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 74/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Ferrari NV reported revenue of €7.1B in FY2025 versus €4.3B in FY2021, a compound +13.7%/yr. Reported net income was €1.6B in FY2025, compounding +17.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $70.1B Large · P/E ratio 36.9 · P/S ratio 8.48 · EPS (TTM) $10.77 · Dividend yield 0.9% · Net margin 22.3% · Return on equity 45.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 18.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 97 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 28% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 3% fair-value upside, at 10%, RACE screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$327.72Fair Value $436.96Bull$546.21
Price $397.24 · Upside +10.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($5.78 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.6% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+20.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+19.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.19.3% vs 19.4%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.21% → 29%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+9.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+7.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in EUR, euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +6.9% a year for the price and +4.7% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (90 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: Controlled scarcity supports strong margins and pricing power, yet thin evidence on other moat areas leaves durability uncertain.
Main risk: Supply-demand imbalances from the controlled-scarcity model could hit volumes and revenues due to limited output flexibility.
Ferrari limits output to safeguard its exclusivity and strong pricing. Chairman Elkann has flagged risks from potential supply-demand imbalances as both an operational and cyclical concern. Does this controlled-scarcity approach deliver more durable margins than it creates exposure to volume shortfalls?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto Manufacturers · 104 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score74 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+10.0% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)45.4% · Top 25%
Return on assets16.6% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)22.3% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)31.1% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)8.4% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.9% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.70× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Auto Manufacturers median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Ferrari NV Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/RACE
Frequently asked questions
Is Ferrari NV (RACE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 22, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $436.96 versus a price of $397.24, about +10% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of RACE?
Our model-based fair value for Ferrari NV is $436.96 (as of Oct 22, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $397.24.
What is the quality score of RACE?
Ferrari NV has a Quality Score of 74/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ferrari NV (RACE)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $436.96 (as of Oct 22, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $327.72, optimistic scenario $546.21. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ferrari NV stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $436.96, about +10% upside versus a price of $397.24 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $327.72, optimistic scenario $546.21. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ferrari NV (RACE)?
Ferrari NV reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €7.4B (latest available figure, as of Oct 22, 2026).
Does Ferrari NV pay a dividend?
Ferrari NV currently shows a dividend yield of 0.91% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 22, 2026).
What growth is priced into Ferrari NV (RACE)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Ferrari NV would have to grow free cash flow by +9.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +15.6 % per year. As of Oct 22, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of RACE use?
Our models discount Ferrari NV at 8.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.61, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Ferrari NV that is +9.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Ferrari NV (RACE) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Ferrari NV grew +15.6 % a year. The price currently implies +9.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Ferrari NV (RACE) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Ferrari NV (+9.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Ferrari NV (RACE)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.27 %: that much free cash flow Ferrari NV produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Ferrari NV (RACE)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ferrari NV it is $436.96 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026), against a price of $397.24. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Ferrari NV stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 22, 2026, RACE trades below its calculated fair value: price $397.24, fair value $436.96, a gap of about +10% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of RACE?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($397.24); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($436.96). For Ferrari NV the two are $39.72 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ferrari NV worth?
The market values Ferrari NV at about $70.1B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 22, 2026). Per share that is $397.24; our models calculate a fair value of $436.96 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about RACE?
Our models span a range for Ferrari NV: cautious scenario $327.72, base $436.96, optimistic $546.21 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026, price $397.24). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of RACE?
Ferrari NV trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 36.9 (as of Oct 22, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $436.96 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 3.5, P/B 16.0, P/S 8.5, EV/EBITDA 25.8.
What is the PEG ratio of RACE?
The PEG ratio of Ferrari NV is 3.53 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 22, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ferrari NV (RACE)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ferrari NV (as of Oct 22, 2026): return on equity 45.4%, debt of 0.70 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 74/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is RACE from its 52-week high?
Ferrari NV trades at $397.24, about 9% below its 52-week high of $436.54 and 28% above the low of $311.04 (as of Oct 21, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $436.96 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ferrari NV?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Tesla, Inc, Toyota Motor Corporation, BYD Company, General Motors Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ferrari NV stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 22, 2026: price $397.24, calculated fair value $436.96 (+10%), Quality Score 74/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of RACE calculated?
We run Ferrari NV through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $436.96, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.6 % above its aggregate fair value. Ferrari NV currently trades 9 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ferrari NV (RACE)?
The closing price on Oct 21, 2026 was $397.24. Our model-based fair value is $436.96, about +10% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ferrari NV right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Ferrari NV (RACE) come from?
Earnings per share at Ferrari NV grew +19.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +10.1 %, EBIT margin +6.0 %, tax rate +1.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Ferrari NV
How large is the market capitalisation of Ferrari NV (RACE)?
The market capitalisation of Ferrari NV is $70.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ferrari NV (RACE)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ferrari NV is 8.48 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ferrari NV (RACE)?
Earnings per share at Ferrari NV are $10.77 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 36.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Ferrari NV (RACE)?
The dividend yield of Ferrari NV is 0.9% (payout 33.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Ferrari NV (RACE)?
The net margin of Ferrari NV is 22.3% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ferrari NV (RACE)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ferrari NV is 45.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ferrari NV (RACE)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ferrari NV is 18.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ferrari NV (RACE)?
The operating margin of Ferrari NV is 31.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ferrari NV (RACE)?
Revenue at Ferrari NV is growing +8.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +11.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Ferrari NV (RACE)?
Earnings per share at Ferrari NV are growing +10.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Ferrari NV (RACE) carry?
The net debt of Ferrari NV is €1.4B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 22, 2026