Ford Motor Company (F) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $55.8B · ISIN US3453708600
What is Ford Motor Company really worth?
Ford Motor Company
F · US
Below-average quality, trading 35% below our fair value of $22.14.
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Sep 1, 2026
From 11 valuation models · updated 4 days ago
Fair value updated Sep 1, 2026, revised from $11.51 to $22.14 (+92.4%) since Aug 27, 2026. Share price +1.2% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
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What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (41/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- The model range is unusually wide ($6.83 to $22.14). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $8.16 – $18.76 · fair‑value band $6.83 – $22.14 · the $14.41 price screens below the $22.14 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.
Analysis
Ford Motor Company (F) currently trades at $14.41, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $22.14, implying the stock looks roughly 34.9% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $24.82 per share, and 3 of the 9 models we run sit above the $14.41 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $6.15, and 6 of the 9 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, Ford Motor Company generated revenue of $190B at a net margin of −3.2%. Revenue grew 6.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of −14.8%. Net debt stands at $144B. Fundamentals as of Sep 1, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $6.83 (bear case) to $22.14 (bull case); at $14.41, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 47% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 21% fair-value upside, at 54%, F screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 11 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF ($24.82) versus Asset-Based ($6.15). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 1, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 39 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 48
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Ford Motor Company develops, delivers, and services Ford trucks, sport utility vehicles, commercial vans and cars, and Lincoln luxury vehicles in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Mexico, and internationally. It operates through Ford Blue, Ford Model e, Ford Pro, and Ford Credit segments.
Full company description
Ford Motor Company develops, delivers, and services Ford trucks, sport utility vehicles, commercial vans and cars, and Lincoln luxury vehicles in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Mexico, and internationally. It operates through Ford Blue, Ford Model e, Ford Pro, and Ford Credit segments. The company sells Ford and Lincoln internal combustion engine and hybrid vehicles, electric vehicles, service parts, accessories, and digital services for retail customers; develops EV and digital vehicle technologies, and software; and provides telematics and EV charging solutions. It also sells Ford and Lincoln vehicles, service parts, and accessories through distributors and dealers, as well as through dealerships to commercial fleet customers, daily rental car companies, and governments. In addition, it engages in vehicle-related financing and leasing activities to and through automotive dealers. Further, the company provides retail installment sale contracts for new and used vehicles; and direct financing leases for new vehicles to retail and commercial customers, such as leasing companies, government entities, daily rental companies, and fleet customers. Additionally, it offers wholesale loans to dealers to finance the purchase of vehicle inventory; and loans to dealers to finance working capital and enhance dealership facilities, purchase dealership real estate, and other dealer vehicle programs. Ford Motor Company was incorporated in 1903 and is based in Dearborn, Michigan.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Ford Motor Company reported revenue of $187B in FY2025 versus $136B in FY2021, a compound +8.3%/yr. Reported net income was −$8.2B in FY2025.
of which total revenue +2.3 % · buybacks/dilution −0.1 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
Watch F: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) Battle for Title of Most “American-Made” Automaker
- Zacks Industry Outlook General Motors, PACCAR, Ford and Harley-Davidson
- What Does Ford Motor (F) Changing Ford Energy Leadership Mean For Its EV Push?
- Ford Motor (F) Down 9% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?
Peer Group
Auto Manufacturers · 115 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Auto Manufacturers median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Auto Manufacturers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 1, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toyota Motor Corporation TM | $188.78 | $228.25 | +21% |
| BYD Company 81211 | HK$76.90 | HK$48.59 | −37% |
| Hyundai Motor Company 005380 | 418,500 KRW | 567,393 KRW | +36% |
| Ferrari N.V RACE | €355.50 | €167.67 | −53% |
| General Motors Company GM | $86.27 | $52.69 | −39% |
| Mercedes-Benz Group MBG | €46.95 | €106.16 | +126% |
| Dr. Ing. h.c. F. Porsche AG P911 | €43.91 | €17.34 | −61% |
| Maruti Suzuki India Limited MARUTI | ₹12,694 | ₹8,236 | −35% |
| Volkswagen AG VOW3 | €77.42 | €248.34 | +221% |
| Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft BMW | €62.64 | €140.42 | +124% |
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