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Data-driven stock valuation

Ford Motor Company (F) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what Ford Motor Company is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.

  1. Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
  2. Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
  3. Watch it or check another stockalert when fair value or trend changes

Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $55.2B · ISIN US3453708600

At a glance

FM Ford Motor Company logo Ford Motor Company F · US
Price$13.88
Fair Value$21.52
Upside+55.0%
Quality41/100

Below-average quality, trading 36% below our fair value of $21.52.

As of Sep 10, 2026, the fair value of Ford Motor Company is $21.52 per share against a price of $13.88, so the fair value sits 55% above the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.

!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +8.1 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -3.2% net margin
!High debt · generates free cash flow
·4.32% dividend yield
!Mixed vs. peers (6/14)
!Narrow moat 23/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
Evidence: Medium Range $6.64 to $21.52

Fair value as of: Sep 10, 2026

From 11 valuation models · updated yesterday

Fair value updated Sep 10, 2026, revised from $11.51 to $21.52 (+87.0%) since Sep 1, 2026. Share price −0.7% over the past month.

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (41/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
  • The model range is unusually wide ($6.64 to $21.52). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$18.76 $8.16 Fair Value $21.52 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 10, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $8.16 – $18.76 · fair‑value band $6.64 – $21.52 · the $13.88 price screens below the $21.52 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 10, 2026.

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Analysis

Ford Motor Company (F) currently trades at $13.88, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $21.52, implying the stock looks roughly 35.5% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $24.82 per share, and 4 of the 9 models we run sit above the $13.88 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $6.15, and 5 of the 9 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Over the trailing twelve months, Ford Motor Company generated revenue of $190B at a net margin of −3.2%. Revenue grew 6.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of −14.8%. Net debt stands at $144B. Fundamentals as of Sep 10, 2026

Scenario range: $6.64 (bear) to $21.52 (bull), the price of $13.88 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 42% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 25% fair-value upside, at 55%, F screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $11.61 $24.13 $44.49 76
Growth DCF $12.79 $24.82 $43.25 75
5Y EBITDA Exit $4.03 $14.29 $26.57 70
All 11 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $11.61 $24.13 $44.49 76
5Y Revenue Exit n/a n/a $2.01 69
5Y EBITDA Exit $4.03 $14.29 $26.57 70
10Y Revenue Exit $0.5700 $4.54 $8.69 61
10Y EBITDA Exit $6.64 $15.52 $25.59 66
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $7.01 $9.62 $12.26 69
DDM Multi-Stage $7.01 $9.73 $12.94 67
Multiples
EV/EBITDA $2.71 $10.66 $18.60 61
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $4.59 $6.15 $9.19 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $12.79 $24.82 $43.25 75
Rev-Margin DCF n/a n/a $3.36 69

Widest divergence: Growth DCF ($24.82) versus Asset-Based ($6.15). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (76).

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Key figures & financial health

P/S ratio 0.29 TTM
EPS (TTM) $−1.55
Dividend yield 4.3%
Net margin −4.4% FY2025
Return on equity −14.8% TTM
Return on assets (EBIT) 1.8% avg 5y
More key figures
Profitability
Operating margin 5.7% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) $190B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +6.4% 3y avg +5.8%
EPS growth (YoY) +431%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow $12.5B FY2025
Net debt $144B FY2025 · ≈ 11.6 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 10, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 41/100

Of which business quality 39 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 46

Profitability 13
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 31
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 42
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 9
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 88
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 24
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 55
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 55
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 88
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Ford Motor Company develops, delivers, and services Ford trucks, sport utility vehicles, commercial vans and cars, and Lincoln luxury vehicles in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Mexico, and internationally. It operates through Ford Blue, Ford Model e, Ford Pro, and Ford Credit segments.

Full company description

Ford Motor Company develops, delivers, and services Ford trucks, sport utility vehicles, commercial vans and cars, and Lincoln luxury vehicles in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Mexico, and internationally. It operates through Ford Blue, Ford Model e, Ford Pro, and Ford Credit segments. The company sells Ford and Lincoln internal combustion engine and hybrid vehicles, electric vehicles, service parts, accessories, and digital services for retail customers; develops EV and digital vehicle technologies, and software; and provides telematics and EV charging solutions. It also sells Ford and Lincoln vehicles, service parts, and accessories through distributors and dealers, as well as through dealerships to commercial fleet customers, daily rental car companies, and governments. In addition, it engages in vehicle-related financing and leasing activities to and through automotive dealers. Further, the company provides retail installment sale contracts for new and used vehicles; and direct financing leases for new vehicles to retail and commercial customers, such as leasing companies, government entities, daily rental companies, and fleet customers. Additionally, it offers wholesale loans to dealers to finance the purchase of vehicle inventory; and loans to dealers to finance working capital and enhance dealership facilities, purchase dealership real estate, and other dealer vehicle programs. Ford Motor Company was incorporated in 1903 and is based in Dearborn, Michigan.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Ford Motor Company reported revenue of $187B in FY2025 versus $136B in FY2021, a compound +8.3%/yr. Reported net income was −$8.2B in FY2025.

Growth Quality 48/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$187B
Latest YoY
+1.2%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+5.8%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+8.1%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (40Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+3.2%
EBIT margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−3.6% (2020) → 1.4% (2025)
Value creation/yr ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Revenue +8.3%/yr
FY21 $136B
FY22 $158B
FY23 $176B
FY24 $185B
FY25 $187B
Net income
FY21 $17.9B
FY22 −$2.0B
FY23 $4.3B
FY24 $5.9B
FY25 −$8.2B
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +1.6 % p.a.
Revenue per share +2.2 %

of which total revenue +2.3 % · buybacks/dilution −0.1 %

EBIT margin +0.6 %
Tax rate +2.8 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) −3.8 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Ford Motor Company Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/F

Recent news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Auto Manufacturers · 114 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation
Quality Score 41 · Below median
Fair Value upside +58% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets 0% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) −3% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 6% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 6% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 4.3% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 2.95× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiples vs Auto Manufacturers median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.55× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.29× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 4.5× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 18.3× · Priciest 25%
PEG 8.48× · Priciest 25%

What the price implies (reverse DCF)

The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must Ford Motor Company deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.

Implied FCF growth, 10 years+5.7 % per year
Achieved revenue growth, 5 years+8.1 % p.a.
Sector median revenue growth+2.7 %
FCF yield on price22.57 %
Discount rate (WACC) in the models11.1 %

The price demands roughly the growth the company recently delivered. Ranking of the largest stocks →

Context: sector, industry, market

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE100 · sector 26
FUTURE32 · sector 30
PAST0 · sector 21
HEALTH0 · sector 94
DIVIDEND86 · sector 50

Insider activity: 40/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Auto Manufacturers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 10, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Toyota Motor Corporation TM $188.78 $235.50 +25%
BYD Company 81211 HK$73.50 HK$46.64 −37%
Hyundai Motor Company 005380 418,500 KRW 567,393 KRW +36%
Ferrari N.V RACE €346.00 €167.67 −52%
General Motors Company GM $87.76 $52.69 −40%
Mercedes-Benz Group MBG €47.69 €106.16 +123%
Dr. Ing. h.c. F. Porsche AG P911 €43.91 €17.34 −61%
Maruti Suzuki India Limited MARUTI ₹12,694 ₹8,236 −35%
Volkswagen AG VOW €81.65 €248.34 +204%
Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft BMW €62.80 €140.42 +124%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Ford Motor Company (F) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 10, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $21.52 versus a price of $13.88, about +55% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of F?
Our model-based fair value for Ford Motor Company is $21.52 (as of Sep 10, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $13.88.
What is the quality score of F?
Ford Motor Company has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ford Motor Company (F)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $21.52 (as of Sep 10, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario $6.64, optimistic scenario $21.52. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ford Motor Company stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $21.52, about +55% upside versus a price of $13.88 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $6.64, optimistic scenario $21.52. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ford Motor Company (F)?
Ford Motor Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $190B (latest available figure, as of Sep 10, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of F?
The net profit margin of Ford Motor Company is about −3.2%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Ford Motor Company pay a dividend?
Ford Motor Company currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.32% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 10, 2026).
What growth is priced into Ford Motor Company (F)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Ford Motor Company would have to grow free cash flow by +5.7 % per year for ten years (discount rate 11.1 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.1 % per year. As of Sep 10, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of F use?
Our models discount Ford Motor Company at 11.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.83, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is the intrinsic value of Ford Motor Company (F)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ford Motor Company it is $21.52 per share (as of Sep 10, 2026), against a price of $13.88. It is the blended result of 11 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Ford Motor Company stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 10, 2026, F trades below its calculated fair value: price $13.88, fair value $21.52, a gap of about +55% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of F?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($13.88); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($21.52). For Ford Motor Company the two are $7.64 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ford Motor Company worth?
The market values Ford Motor Company at about $55.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 10, 2026). Per share that is $13.88; our models calculate a fair value of $21.52 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about F?
Our models span a range for Ford Motor Company: cautious scenario $6.64, base $21.52, optimistic $21.52 per share (as of Sep 10, 2026, price $13.88). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of F?
The PEG ratio of Ford Motor Company is 8.48 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 10, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ford Motor Company (F)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ford Motor Company (as of Sep 10, 2026): return on equity −14.8%, debt of 2.95 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 41/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is F from its 52-week high?
Ford Motor Company trades at $13.88, about 22% below its 52-week high of $17.78 and 42% above the low of $9.81 (as of Sep 10, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $21.52 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ford Motor Company?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Toyota Motor Corporation, BYD Company, Hyundai Motor Company, Ferrari N.V, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ford Motor Company stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 10, 2026: price $13.88, calculated fair value $21.52 (+55%), Quality Score 41/100, from 11 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of F calculated?
We run Ford Motor Company through 11 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $21.52, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 32.6 % above its aggregate fair value. Ford Motor Company currently trades 55 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on <a href="/is-it-worth-investing-now/">is it worth investing now</a>.
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