Alcoa Corp (AA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Alcoa Corp is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $22.28 – $90.80 · fair‑value band $20.72 – $47.52 · the $44.43 price screens above the $32.33 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
Alcoa Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the bauxite mining, alumina refining, aluminum production, and energy generation business in Australia, Brazil, Canada, Iceland, Norway, Spain, the United States, and internationally. The company operates through two segments: Alumina and Aluminum.
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Alcoa Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the bauxite mining, alumina refining, aluminum production, and energy generation business in Australia, Brazil, Canada, Iceland, Norway, Spain, the United States, and internationally. The company operates through two segments: Alumina and Aluminum. It operates bauxite and other aluminous ores mining and processes bauxite into alumina for sale to aluminum smelter customers and customers who process it into industrial chemical products through supply contracts to third parties, as well as aluminum smelting and casting businesses. The company also offers aluminium powder and scrap and primary aluminum in the form of commodity grade ingot and value-add ingot to customers that produce products for transportation, building and construction, packaging, wire, and other industrial markets. In addition, it provides energy that generates and sells electricity in the wholesale market to traders, large industrial consumers, distribution companies, and other generation companies. The company was formerly known as Alcoa Upstream Corporation and changed its name to Alcoa Corporation in May 2016. The company was founded in 1886 and is headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
Stock analysis
Alcoa Corp (AA) currently trades at $44.43, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $32.33, implying the stock looks roughly 37.4% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $59.56 per share, and 12 of the 25 models we run sit above the $44.43 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $5.28, and 13 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $20.72 (bear) to $47.52 (bull), the price of $44.43 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Alcoa Corp reported revenue of $12.8B in FY2025 versus $12.4B in FY2021, a compound +0.8%/yr. Reported net income was $1.1B in FY2025, compounding +27.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $12.8B · P/E ratio 11.4 · P/S ratio 1.02 · EPS (TTM) $3.90 · Dividend yield 0.9% · Net margin 8.9% · Return on equity 15.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 47% below its 52-week high and 62% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 62% fair-value upside, at −27%, AA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $20.72Fair Value $32.33Bull $47.52
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.52 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.63/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.5%
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+15.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+14.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.14% vs 12%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 8%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 7.9%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+13.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (96 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aluminum · 84 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score46 · Below median
Fair Value upside−35% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)15% · Above median
Return on assets4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)8% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)14% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−5% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.9% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.40× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Aluminum median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)11.4× · Cheaper than median
P/B2.10× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)1.02× · Pricier than median
P/FCF22.7× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA8.0× · Pricier than median
PEG8.36× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 7
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 26
PAST (return on equity)62· sector 32
HEALTH (low debt)80· sector 93
DIVIDEND (yield)18· sector 41
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Alcoa Corp Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AA
Frequently asked questions
Is Alcoa Corp (AA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $32.33 versus a price of $44.43, about −27% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AA?
Our model-based fair value for Alcoa Corp is $32.33 (as of Sep 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $44.43.
What is the quality score of AA?
Alcoa Corp has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Alcoa Corp (AA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $32.33 (as of Sep 18, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario $20.72, optimistic scenario $47.52. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Alcoa Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $32.33, about −27% upside versus a price of $44.43 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $20.72, optimistic scenario $47.52. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Alcoa Corp (AA)?
Alcoa Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $12.7B (latest available figure, as of Sep 18, 2026).
Does Alcoa Corp pay a dividend?
Alcoa Corp currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.90% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 18, 2026).
What growth is priced into Alcoa Corp (AA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Alcoa Corp would have to grow free cash flow by +13.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.5 % per year. As of Sep 18, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AA use?
Our models discount Alcoa Corp at 10.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.57, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Alcoa Corp that is +13.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Alcoa Corp (AA) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Alcoa Corp grew +6.5 % a year. The price currently implies +13.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Alcoa Corp (AA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Alcoa Corp (+13.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Alcoa Corp (AA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.85 %: that much free cash flow Alcoa Corp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Alcoa Corp (AA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Alcoa Corp it is $32.33 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026), against a price of $44.43. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Alcoa Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 18, 2026, AA trades above its calculated fair value: price $44.43, fair value $32.33, a gap of about −27% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AA?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($44.43); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($32.33). For Alcoa Corp the two are $12.10 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Alcoa Corp worth?
The market values Alcoa Corp at about $12.8B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 18, 2026). Per share that is $44.43; our models calculate a fair value of $32.33 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AA?
Our models span a range for Alcoa Corp: cautious scenario $20.72, base $32.33, optimistic $47.52 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026, price $44.43). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AA?
Alcoa Corp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.4 (as of Sep 18, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $32.33 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 8.4, P/B 2.1, P/S 1.0, EV/EBITDA 8.0.
What is the PEG ratio of AA?
The PEG ratio of Alcoa Corp is 8.36 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 18, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Alcoa Corp (AA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Alcoa Corp (as of Sep 18, 2026): return on equity 15.4%, debt of 0.40 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AA from its 52-week high?
Alcoa Corp trades at $44.43, about 47% below its 52-week high of $84.38 and 62% above the low of $27.46 (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $32.33 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Alcoa Corp?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Shandong Hongqiao Aluminum Industry Holding, China Hongqiao Group, Hindalco Industries Limited, Aluminum Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Alcoa Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 18, 2026: price $44.43, calculated fair value $32.33 (−27%), Quality Score 46/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AA calculated?
We run Alcoa Corp through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $32.33, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Alcoa Corp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Alcoa Corp (AA)?
The closing price on Sep 18, 2026 was $44.43. Our model-based fair value is $32.33, about −27% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Alcoa Corp right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (46/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($20.72 to $47.52) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Alcoa Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of Alcoa Corp (AA)?
The market capitalisation of Alcoa Corp is $12.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Alcoa Corp (AA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Alcoa Corp is 1.02 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Alcoa Corp (AA)?
Earnings per share at Alcoa Corp are $3.90 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Alcoa Corp (AA)?
The dividend yield of Alcoa Corp is 0.9% (payout 10.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Alcoa Corp (AA)?
The net margin of Alcoa Corp is 8.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Alcoa Corp (AA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Alcoa Corp is 15.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Alcoa Corp (AA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Alcoa Corp is 8.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Alcoa Corp (AA)?
The operating margin of Alcoa Corp is 13.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Alcoa Corp (AA)?
Revenue at Alcoa Corp is growing −5.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Alcoa Corp (AA)?
Earnings per share at Alcoa Corp are growing −22.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Alcoa Corp (AA) carry?
The net debt of Alcoa Corp is $1.1B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 18, 2026