Norsk Hydro ASA (NHY) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · NO · Market cap 167B NOK (≈ $17.9B) · ISIN NO0005052605
What is Norsk Hydro ASA really worth?
A solid business, but trading 62% above our fair value of kr 58.10.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Sep 3, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 2 days ago
Share price +3.2% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (kr 72.63). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (67/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 39.24 – kr 119.45 · fair‑value band kr 43.58 – kr 72.63 · the kr 93.92 price screens above the kr 58.10 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 3, 2026.
Analysis
Norsk Hydro ASA (NHY) currently trades at kr 93.92, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 58.10, implying the stock looks roughly 61.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of kr 90.41 per share, and 4 of the 26 models we run sit above the kr 93.92 price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at kr 17.74, and 22 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Norsk Hydro ASA generated revenue of 201B NOK at a net margin of 3.0%. Revenue declined 11.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.2%. Net debt stands at 20.5B NOK. Fundamentals as of Sep 3, 2026
Our scenario range runs from kr 43.58 (bear case) to kr 72.63 (bull case); at kr 93.92, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 82% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 28% fair-value upside, at −38%, NHY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly kr 0.0812 per share, which is 0.1 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF (kr 90.41) versus Earnings-Based (kr 17.74). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (79).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 3, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 64
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Norsk Hydro ASA engages in power production, bauxite extraction, alumina refining, aluminum smelting, recycling activities, and extruded solutions worldwide. The company operates through Hydro Bauxite & Alumina, Hydro Aluminium Metal, Hydro Metal Markets, Hydro Extrusions, and Hydro Energy segments.
Full company description
Norsk Hydro ASA engages in power production, bauxite extraction, alumina refining, aluminum smelting, recycling activities, and extruded solutions worldwide. The company operates through Hydro Bauxite & Alumina, Hydro Aluminium Metal, Hydro Metal Markets, Hydro Extrusions, and Hydro Energy segments. The Hydro Bauxite & Alumina segment engages in bauxite mining activities, production of alumina, and related commercial activities, primarily the sale of alumina. The Hydro Aluminium Metal segment is involved in the primary aluminum production casting activities. This segment principally offers extrusion ingots, foundry alloys, and sheet and standard ingots. The Hydro Metal Markets segment sells products from the company's primary metal plants; operates recyclers; and trades in physical and financial metals. The Hydro Extrusions segment offers extrusion profiles, building systems, and precision tubing products for construction, automotive and heating, and ventilation and air conditioning sectors, as well as operates recycling facilities. The Hydro Energy segment engages in the trading and wholesale business in Brazil; energy sourcing operations; and operation of power stations in Norway, as well as renewable energy production, such as wind and solar. The company also provides extruded solutions. Norsk Hydro ASA was founded in 1905 and is headquartered in Oslo, Norway.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Norsk Hydro ASA reported revenue of 208B NOK in FY2025 versus 150B NOK in FY2021, a compound +8.6%/yr. Reported net income was 6.7B NOK in FY2025, compounding −13.8%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +11.0 % · buybacks/dilution +0.1 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
NHY screens 62% overvalued. Compare with Shandong Hongqiao Aluminum Industry Holding →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Norsk Hydro: Alunorte ramps up alumina production
- Norsk Hydro (OB:NHY) Cuts Alunorte Output, Is It Still 33% Undervalued?
- Norsk Hydro (OB:NHY) Cuts Alunorte Output As Gas Disruption Raises Supply Fears
- Norsk Hydro (OB:NHY) Stock Looks Like A Bargain Even After A 101% Run
Peer Group
Aluminum · 83 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Aluminum median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Aluminum stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 3, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shandong Hongqiao Aluminum Industry Holding 002379 | ¥18.28 | ¥23.44 | +28% |
| China Hongqiao Group 1378 | HK$22.64 | HK$45.69 | +102% |
| Hindalco Industries Limited HINDALCO | ₹1,028 | ₹997.35 | −3% |
| Aluminum Corporation 601600 | ¥9.45 | ¥16.30 | +72% |
| Press Metal Aluminium Holdings 8869 | 7.90 MYR | 3.88 MYR | −51% |
| Alcoa Corporation AAI | A$73.19 | A$49.53 | −32% |
| Yunnan Aluminium Co 000807 | ¥25.88 | ¥29.68 | +15% |
| Henan Shenhuo Coal Industry and Electricity Power Co 000933 | ¥27.36 | ¥30.28 | +11% |
| Tianshan Aluminum Group 002532 | ¥12.67 | ¥21.86 | +73% |
| Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co 600219 | ¥4.73 | ¥7.01 | +48% |
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