Tianshan Aluminum Group Co Ltd (002532) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · CN · Market cap 55.5B CNY (≈ $8.3B) · ISIN CNE100000YJ6
What is Tianshan Aluminum Group Co Ltd really worth?
A strong business, but trading 12% above our fair value of ¥11.73.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 22, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 14 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 22, 2026, revised from ¥21.86 to ¥11.73 (−46.3%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price −0.2% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin.
- The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥4.44 – ¥20.30 · fair‑value band ¥8.79 – ¥14.66 · the ¥13.13 price screens above the ¥11.73 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 22, 2026.
Analysis
Tianshan Aluminum Group Co Ltd (002532) currently trades at ¥13.13, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥11.73, implying the stock looks roughly 12.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 75/100 (high quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ¥47.65 per share, and 20 of the 26 models we run sit above the ¥13.13 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥4.28, and 6 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Tianshan Aluminum Group Co Ltd generated revenue of 30.0B CNY at a net margin of 19.9%. Revenue grew 6.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 20.2%. Net debt stands at 2.3B CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 22, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥8.79 (bear case) to ¥14.66 (bull case); at ¥13.13, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 39% below its 52-week high and 78% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 15% fair-value upside, at −11%, 002532 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly ¥0.5075 per share, which is 4.3 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (¥47.65) versus Asset-Based (¥4.28). Highest evidence: EPV (74).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 22, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 70 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 47
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Tianshan Aluminum Group Co.,Ltd, together with its subsidiaries, produces and sells primary aluminum, prebaked anodes, high-purity aluminum, alumina, and aluminum foil products in China and internationally. It operates through Original Aluminum Plate, High-Purity Aluminum, Aluminum Oxide Plate, Aluminum Foil and Aluminum Foil Stock, and other segments.
Full company description
Tianshan Aluminum Group Co.,Ltd, together with its subsidiaries, produces and sells primary aluminum, prebaked anodes, high-purity aluminum, alumina, and aluminum foil products in China and internationally. It operates through Original Aluminum Plate, High-Purity Aluminum, Aluminum Oxide Plate, Aluminum Foil and Aluminum Foil Stock, and other segments. The company offers bauxite, anode carbon, electrolytic aluminum, and power battery aluminum foil, as well as power generation and aluminum deep processing services. It also provides aluminum ingots; carbon and its products; furnace charge products; aluminum alloy materials; aluminum hydroxide; comprehensive services for the energy industry chain; aluminum smelting; high-precision aluminum engineering-related technical services; and vocational and technical training services. In addition, it engages in the wholesale of metals and metal ores; construction and operation of railways; quicklime mining and sales; unit logistics management services; and international trade and foreign investment activities. Tianshan Aluminum Group Co.,Ltd was founded in 1997 and is based in Shanghai, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Tianshan Aluminum Group Co Ltd reported revenue of 29.5B CNY in FY2025 versus 28.7B CNY in FY2021, a compound +0.7%/yr. Reported net income was 4.8B CNY in FY2025, compounding +5.9%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +15.8 % · buybacks/dilution −21.7 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
002532 screens 12% overvalued. Compare with Shandong Hongqiao Aluminum Industry Holding →
Peer Group
Aluminum · 83 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Aluminum median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Aluminum stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 22, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shandong Hongqiao Aluminum Industry Holding 002379 | ¥18.28 | ¥23.44 | +28% |
| China Hongqiao Group 1378 | HK$22.64 | HK$45.69 | +102% |
| Hindalco Industries Limited HINDALCO | ₹1,028 | ₹997.35 | −3% |
| Aluminum Corporation 601600 | ¥9.45 | ¥16.30 | +72% |
| Norsk Hydro ASA NHY | kr 92.30 | kr 58.10 | −37% |
| Press Metal Aluminium Holdings 8869 | 7.90 MYR | 3.88 MYR | −51% |
| Alcoa Corporation AAI | A$73.19 | A$49.53 | −32% |
| Yunnan Aluminium Co 000807 | ¥25.88 | ¥29.68 | +15% |
| Henan Shenhuo Coal Industry and Electricity Power Co 000933 | ¥27.36 | ¥30.28 | +11% |
| Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co 600219 | ¥4.73 | ¥7.01 | +48% |
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