Hindalco Industries Limited (HINDALCO) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · IN · Market cap ₹2.1T
Fair value as of: Aug 14, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated today
Share price +7.4% over the past month.
Below-average quality, currently priced close to our fair value.
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- Our model range runs from ₹751.98 (bear) to ₹1,282 (bull), base ₹1,026. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 38/100 (below-average quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 14, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ₹305.91 – ₹1,144 · fair‑value band ₹751.98 – ₹1,282 · the ₹1,046 price screens above the ₹1,026 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 14, 2026.
Analysis
Hindalco Industries Limited (HINDALCO) currently trades at ₹1,046, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹1,026, implying the stock looks roughly 2.0% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Hindalco Industries Limited generated revenue of ₹2.7T at a net margin of 4.9%. Revenue grew 20.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.3%. Net debt stands at ₹844B. Fundamentals as of Aug 14, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ₹751.98 (bear case) to ₹1,282 (bull case); at ₹1,046, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 66% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 11% fair-value upside, at -2%, HINDALCO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (₹1,074) versus Dividend Discount (₹86.02). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 14, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 37 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 69
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Hindalco Industries Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes aluminum and copper products in India, the United States, Brazil, South Korea, the United Kingdom, Germany, China, and internationally. It operates through Novelis, Aluminium Upstream, Aluminium Downstream, and Copper segments.
Full company description
Hindalco Industries Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes aluminum and copper products in India, the United States, Brazil, South Korea, the United Kingdom, Germany, China, and internationally. It operates through Novelis, Aluminium Upstream, Aluminium Downstream, and Copper segments. The company offers primary aluminum, such as ingots, wirerods, primary foundry alloys, and billets; flat rolled products, including building and pattern sheets, PCB entry and cold-rolled sheets, closure and fin stocks, cable wrap and lamp cap stocks, foil and litho stocks, spiral fin stocks, circles, hot-rolled plates, cold-rolled coils, and flooring sheets/tread plates; extrusions; and foils, as well as aluminium sheet and light gauge products. It also engages in bauxite and coal mining, refineries, and metal and power; and specialty alumina solutions, including refractory, ceramic, polishing, flame retardant, battery, and water treatment solutions. In addition, the company provides copper wire and recycled rods, alloy rods, IGT tubes, and cathodes; precious metals, such as gold and silver bars, selenium, and platinum group metals; and di-ammonium phosphate, as well as internally grooved copper tube and copper scrap recycling operations. Further, it provides investment, cargo, management, aluminum import and export, engineering, cash management, sales, and welfare services. The company exports its products. It offers its products under the PrizTec, EcoEdge G, EcoEdge C, Everlast, Eternia, Freshwrapp, FUSALOX, and Totalis brands. The company serves the building and construction, batteries and renewable energy, commercial transport, consumer durables, circularity and home solutions, defence and aerospace, electrical and power, industrial machinery, packaging, and personal mobility industries. Hindalco Industries Limited was incorporated in 1958 and is headquartered in Mumbai, India.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Hindalco Industries Limited reported revenue of ₹2.7T in FY2026 versus ₹1.9T in FY2022, a compound +9.1%/yr. Reported net income was ₹134B in FY2026, compounding −0.6%/yr from FY2022.
of which total revenue +10.1 pp · buybacks/dilution −0.9 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Hindustan Copper plans supply of Chilean copper to Hindalco and Adani
- $166+ Billion Aluminum Extrusion Market Outlook, 2030 - Featuring Analysis of Hindalco Industries, Alcoa Corporation, Aluminium Corporation
- India's Hindalco sees up to $1.6 billion impact from fire at unit's New York plant
Peer Group
Aluminum · 82 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Aluminum median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Aluminum stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 14, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shandong Hongqiao Aluminum Industry Holding 002379 | ¥21.34 | ¥23.44 | +10% |
| China Hongqiao Group 1378 | HK$24.44 | HK$45.58 | +86% |
| Aluminum Corporation 601600 | ¥9.94 | ¥16.30 | +64% |
| Norsk Hydro ASA NHY | kr 90.02 | kr 58.10 | -35% |
| Press Metal Aluminium Holdings 8869 | 7.99 MYR | 3.88 MYR | -51% |
| Alcoa Corporation AAI | A$73.19 | A$49.53 | -32% |
| Yunnan Aluminium Co 000807 | ¥27.44 | ¥29.68 | +8% |
| Henan Shenhuo Coal Industry and Electricity Power Co 000933 | ¥27.24 | ¥30.28 | +11% |
| Tianshan Aluminum Group 002532 | ¥14.27 | ¥21.86 | +53% |
| Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co 600219 | ¥4.72 | ¥7.01 | +49% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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