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China Hongqiao Group Ltd (1378) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · HK · Market cap HK$196B (≈ $25.0B) · ISIN KYG211501005

What is China Hongqiao Group Ltd really worth?

CH China Hongqiao Group Ltd 1378 · HK
PriceHK$23.40
Fair ValueHK$24.01
Upside+2.6%
Quality62/100

A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value of HK$24.01.

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Strengths

✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +13.5 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 13.9% net margin
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers (11/14)

Risks

!Moderate moat 57/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain

For context

·6.34% dividend yield
Evidence: Medium Range HK$18.01 – HK$36.79

Fair value as of: Sep 3, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated yesterday

Fair value updated Sep 3, 2026, revised from HK$45.58 to HK$24.01 (−47.3%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price −2.7% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
  • A fairly wide model range (HK$18.01 to HK$36.79) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$38.07 HK$4.04 Fair Value HK$24.01 Apr 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 3, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$4.04 – HK$38.07 · fair‑value band HK$18.01 – HK$36.79 · the HK$23.40 price screens below the HK$24.01 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 3, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

China Hongqiao Group Ltd (1378) currently trades at HK$23.40, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$24.01, implying the stock looks roughly 2.5% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$58.89 per share, and 22 of the 24 models we run sit above the HK$23.40 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$9.05, and 2 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Over the trailing twelve months, China Hongqiao Group Ltd generated revenue of HK$162B at a net margin of 13.9%. Revenue declined 1.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 18.6%. Net debt stands at HK$18.0B. Fundamentals as of Sep 3, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$18.01 (bear case) to HK$36.79 (bull case); at HK$23.40, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 40% below its 52-week high and 41% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 15% fair-value upside, at 3%, 1378 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF HK$41.12 HK$76.13 HK$159.44 75
Growth DCF HK$40.11 HK$79.66 HK$141.69 75
EPV HK$26.50 HK$30.75 HK$34.46 74
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$41.12 HK$76.13 HK$159.44 75
Owner Earnings HK$27.70 HK$54.80 HK$106.39 72
5Y Revenue Exit HK$25.45 HK$43.14 HK$67.52 71
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$34.47 HK$63.02 HK$100.35 73
5Y P/E Exit HK$32.59 HK$58.89 HK$90.40 69
10Y Revenue Exit HK$29.54 HK$48.88 HK$79.79 65
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$36.34 HK$64.02 HK$109.15 66
10Y P/E Exit HK$35.06 HK$60.87 HK$100.25 62
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$15.68 HK$89.89 HK$125.00 63
Lynch FV HK$25.32 HK$36.17 HK$47.02 61
PEG = 1.0 HK$25.32 HK$36.17 HK$47.02 57
EPV HK$26.50 HK$30.75 HK$34.46 74
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$29.39 HK$39.19 HK$48.99 63
P/S Multiple HK$18.60 HK$24.80 HK$31.00 58
P/B Multiple HK$29.39 HK$39.19 HK$48.99 55
EV/EBIT HK$38.62 HK$51.15 HK$63.68 66
EV/EBITDA HK$33.26 HK$44.00 HK$54.74 67
EV/Revenue HK$18.39 HK$25.84 HK$33.28 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$6.75 HK$9.05 HK$13.51 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$40.11 HK$79.66 HK$141.69 75
Rev-Margin DCF HK$25.45 HK$42.77 HK$66.76 71
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$15.25 HK$20.17 HK$68.16 64
ROIC Compounder HK$31.49 HK$44.17 HK$61.72 71
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$34.16 HK$48.81 HK$63.45 67

Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$58.89) versus Asset-Based (HK$9.05). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (75).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 7.3 as of Jul 2, 2026
P/S ratio 1.01 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) HK$1.31 price ÷ EPS = P/E 7.3
Dividend yield 6.3% payout 113%
Net margin 13.9% FY2025
Return on equity 18.6% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 11.5% avg 5y
Operating margin 21.9% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) HK$162B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) −1.5% 3y avg +7.2%
EPS growth (YoY) −23.1%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow HK$27.8B FY2025
Net debt HK$18.0B FY2025 · ≈ 0.6 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 3, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 62/100

Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 32

Profitability 52
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 36
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 75
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 79
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 48
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 46
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 23
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 31
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 77
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

China Hongqiao Group Limited, an investment holding company, manufactures and sells aluminum products in the People's Republic of China, India, Europe, Malaysia, North America, the rest of Southeast Asia, and internationally.

Full company description

China Hongqiao Group Limited, an investment holding company, manufactures and sells aluminum products in the People's Republic of China, India, Europe, Malaysia, North America, the rest of Southeast Asia, and internationally. The company's products include molten aluminum alloy, aluminum alloy ingots, aluminum deep processing products, and alumina products; and aluminum fabrication products, aluminum alloy products, steam, and aluminum foils. It is also involved in the development and production of decorative foil, household foil, heat-sealed foil, candy foil, food foil, double zero foil, and other products. In addition, the company engages in research, development, mining, and sale of bauxite; financial leasing; and production and sale of electricity. China Hongqiao Group Limited was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Zouping, the People's Republic of China. China Hongqiao Group Limited is a subsidiary of China Hongqiao Holdings Limited.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

China Hongqiao Group Ltd reported revenue of 162B CNY in FY2025 versus 114B CNY in FY2021, a compound +9.1%/yr. Reported net income was 22.6B CNY in FY2025, compounding +8.9%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 99/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$162B
Latest YoY
+4.0%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+7.2%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+13.5%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (18Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+22.0%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+21.4% (15.1 + 6.3)
Revenue +9.1%/yr
FY21 114B CNY
FY22 132B CNY
FY23 134B CNY
FY24 156B CNY
FY25 162B CNY
Net income +8.9%/yr
FY21 16.1B CNY
FY22 8.7B CNY
FY23 11.5B CNY
FY24 22.4B CNY
FY25 22.6B CNY
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +10.4 % p.a.
Revenue per share +9.0 %

of which total revenue +13.8 % · buybacks/dilution −4.2 %

EBIT margin −1.3 %
Tax rate +0.4 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) +2.2 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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China Hongqiao Group Ltd · Fair Value
HK$24.01 +3%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Hongqiao Group Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1378

Peer Group

Aluminum · 83 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 62 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +3% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 19% · Top 25%
Return on assets 9% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 14% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 22% · Top 25%
Revenue growth −2% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 6.3% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.34× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Aluminum median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 7.3× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 1.48× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 1.21× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 0.9× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 4.4× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE37 · sector 8
FUTURE0 · sector 28
PAST74 · sector 34
HEALTH83 · sector 91
DIVIDEND100 · sector 38

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Aluminum stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 3, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Shandong Hongqiao Aluminum Industry Holding 002379 ¥18.28 ¥23.44 +28%
Hindalco Industries Limited HINDALCO ₹1,028 ₹997.35 −3%
Aluminum Corporation 601600 ¥9.45 ¥16.30 +72%
Norsk Hydro ASA NHY kr 92.30 kr 58.10 −37%
Press Metal Aluminium Holdings 8869 7.90 MYR 3.88 MYR −51%
Alcoa Corporation AAI A$73.19 A$49.53 −32%
Yunnan Aluminium Co 000807 ¥25.88 ¥29.68 +15%
Henan Shenhuo Coal Industry and Electricity Power Co 000933 ¥27.36 ¥30.28 +11%
Tianshan Aluminum Group 002532 ¥12.67 ¥21.86 +73%
Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co 600219 ¥4.73 ¥7.01 +48%

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Frequently asked questions

Is China Hongqiao Group Ltd (1378) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$24.01 versus a price of HK$23.40, about +3% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 1378?
Our model-based fair value for China Hongqiao Group Ltd is HK$24.01 (as of Sep 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$23.40.
What is the quality score of 1378?
China Hongqiao Group Ltd has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of China Hongqiao Group Ltd (1378)?
China Hongqiao Group Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$162B (latest available figure, as of Sep 3, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 1378?
The net profit margin of China Hongqiao Group Ltd is about 13.9%, meaning it keeps roughly 13.9% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does China Hongqiao Group Ltd pay a dividend?
China Hongqiao Group Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.34% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 3, 2026).
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