China Hongqiao Group (1378) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · HK · Market cap HK$196B
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated today
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$45.53 to HK$24.01 (−47.3%) since Aug 5, 2026. Share price −2.0% over the past month.
A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- A fairly wide model range (HK$18.00 to HK$36.79) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$4.04 – HK$38.07 · fair‑value band HK$18.00 – HK$36.79 · the HK$22.70 price screens below the HK$24.01 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
China Hongqiao Group (1378) currently trades at HK$22.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$24.01, implying the stock looks roughly 5.8% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, China Hongqiao Group generated revenue of HK$162B at a net margin of 13.9%. Revenue declined 1.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 18.6%. Net debt stands at HK$18.0B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$18.00 (bear case) to HK$36.79 (bull case); at HK$22.70, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 42% below its 52-week high and 37% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 6%, 1378 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$58.89) versus Asset-Based (HK$9.05). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 33
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
China Hongqiao Group Limited, an investment holding company, manufactures and sells aluminum products in the People's Republic of China, India, Europe, Malaysia, North America, the rest of Southeast Asia, and internationally.
Full company description
China Hongqiao Group Limited, an investment holding company, manufactures and sells aluminum products in the People's Republic of China, India, Europe, Malaysia, North America, the rest of Southeast Asia, and internationally. The company's products include molten aluminum alloy, aluminum alloy ingots, aluminum deep processing products, and alumina products; and aluminum fabrication products, aluminum alloy products, steam, and aluminum foils. It is also involved in the development and production of decorative foil, household foil, heat-sealed foil, candy foil, food foil, double zero foil, and other products. In addition, the company engages in research, development, mining, and sale of bauxite; financial leasing; and production and sale of electricity. China Hongqiao Group Limited was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Zouping, the People's Republic of China. China Hongqiao Group Limited is a subsidiary of China Hongqiao Holdings Limited.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
China Hongqiao Group reported revenue of HK$162B in FY2025 versus HK$114B in FY2021, a compound +9.1%/yr. Reported net income was HK$22.6B in FY2025, compounding +8.9%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +13.8 pp · buybacks/dilution −4.7 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Peer Group
Aluminum · 82 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Aluminum median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Aluminum stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shandong Hongqiao Aluminum Industry Holding 002379 | ¥21.34 | ¥23.44 | +10% |
| Hindalco Industries Limited HINDALCO | ₹1,046 | ₹1,026 | -2% |
| Aluminum Corporation 601600 | ¥9.94 | ¥16.30 | +64% |
| Norsk Hydro ASA NHY | kr 90.02 | kr 58.10 | -35% |
| Press Metal Aluminium Holdings 8869 | 7.99 MYR | 3.88 MYR | -51% |
| Alcoa Corporation AAI | A$73.19 | A$49.53 | -32% |
| Yunnan Aluminium Co 000807 | ¥27.44 | ¥29.68 | +8% |
| Henan Shenhuo Coal Industry and Electricity Power Co 000933 | ¥27.24 | ¥30.28 | +11% |
| Tianshan Aluminum Group 002532 | ¥14.27 | ¥21.86 | +53% |
| Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co 600219 | ¥4.72 | ¥7.01 | +49% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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