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Jiangxi Copper (0358) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · HK · Market cap HK$107B (≈ $13.7B) · ISIN CNE1000003K3

What is Jiangxi Copper really worth?

JC Jiangxi Copper 0358 · HK
PriceHK$36.58
Fair ValueHK$41.13
Upside+12.4%
Quality51/100

A solid business, trading 11% below our fair value of HK$41.13.

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Strengths

Ranks above peers (10/14)

Risks

!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +10.7 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 1.4% net margin
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Narrow moat 30/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain

For context

·3.28% dividend yield
Evidence: Medium Range HK$25.71 – HK$51.41

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 17 valuation models · updated 22 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$102.32 to HK$41.13 (−59.8%) since Aug 12, 2026. Share price −3.9% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • A fairly wide model range (HK$25.71 to HK$51.41) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
  • The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety.
  • Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$51.68 HK$7.21 Fair Value HK$41.13 Apr 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$7.21 – HK$51.68 · fair‑value band HK$25.71 – HK$51.41 · the HK$36.58 price screens below the HK$41.13 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Jiangxi Copper (0358) currently trades at HK$36.58, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$41.13, implying the stock looks roughly 11.1% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$55.02 per share, and 8 of the 17 models we run sit above the HK$36.58 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$15.78, and 9 of the 17 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Over the trailing twelve months, Jiangxi Copper generated revenue of HK$573B at a net margin of 1.4%. Revenue grew 25.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.2%. Net debt stands at HK$46.0B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$25.71 (bear case) to HK$51.41 (bull case); at HK$36.58, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and 153% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −52% fair-value upside, at 12%, 0358 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income best evidence HK$20.26 HK$22.05 HK$27.46 75
Owner Earnings HK$31.07 HK$55.02 HK$100.06 72
EPV HK$44.83 HK$51.17 HK$56.71 72
All 17 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings HK$31.07 HK$55.02 HK$100.06 72
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$14.15 HK$79.05 HK$109.77 61
Lynch FV HK$22.11 HK$31.58 HK$41.05 58
PEG = 1.0 HK$22.11 HK$31.58 HK$41.05 55
EPV HK$44.83 HK$51.17 HK$56.71 72
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$16.28 HK$33.85 HK$53.71 64
DDM Multi-Stage HK$16.28 HK$28.55 HK$35.53 64
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$26.52 HK$35.37 HK$44.21 61
P/S Multiple HK$26.52 HK$35.37 HK$44.21 56
P/B Multiple HK$26.52 HK$35.37 HK$44.21 53
EV/EBIT HK$56.69 HK$73.31 HK$89.93 65
EV/EBITDA HK$49.83 HK$64.16 HK$78.49 66
EV/Revenue HK$50.04 HK$68.56 HK$87.08 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$11.78 HK$15.78 HK$23.55 52
Economic Profit
Residual Income best evidence HK$20.26 HK$22.05 HK$27.46 75
ROIC Compounder HK$51.94 HK$69.85 HK$94.21 70
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$30.15 HK$43.07 HK$56.00 66

Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$55.02) versus Asset-Based (HK$15.78). Highest evidence: Residual Income (75).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 11.6 as of Jul 1, 2026
P/S ratio 0.16 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) HK$1.17 price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.6
Dividend yield 3.3% payout 103%
Net margin 1.4% FY2025
Return on equity 9.2% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 6.1% avg 5y
Operating margin 3.9% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) HK$573B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +25.4% 3y avg +3.3%
EPS growth (YoY) +43.9%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow −HK$11.5B FY2025
Net debt HK$46.0B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 51/100

Of which business quality 51 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 52

Profitability 42
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 38
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 10
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 72
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 79
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 18
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 60
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 79
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 83
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Jiangxi Copper Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in mining, beneficiation, smelting, and processing of copper and gold in Chinese Mainland, China, Hong Kong, and internationally. It operates through two segments, Copper-related Industries and Gold-related Industries.

Full company description

Jiangxi Copper Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in mining, beneficiation, smelting, and processing of copper and gold in Chinese Mainland, China, Hong Kong, and internationally. It operates through two segments, Copper-related Industries and Gold-related Industries. The company is involved in the businesses of copper, gold, lead and zinc, trade, finance, new materials, engineering construction, equipment manufacturing, information technology, energy conservation and environment protection. It also engages in the extraction and processing of precious metals and scattered metals; smelting, rolling processing, and deep processing of non-ferrous metals and related by-products; research, development, production, and sales of copper materials; manufacture and sales of wires and cables, and trade of related products business. The company was founded in 1979 and is headquartered in Guixi, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Jiangxi Copper reported revenue of 529B CNY in FY2025 versus 443B CNY in FY2021, a compound +4.5%/yr. Reported net income was 7.2B CNY in FY2025, compounding +6.2%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 50/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$529B
Latest YoY
+1.5%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+3.3%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+10.7%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (27Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+21.9%
Value creation/yr (5Y) Earnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+27.2% (23.9 + 3.3)
Revenue +4.5%/yr
FY21 443B CNY
FY22 480B CNY
FY23 522B CNY
FY24 521B CNY
FY25 529B CNY
Net income +6.2%/yr
FY21 5.6B CNY
FY22 6.0B CNY
FY23 6.5B CNY
FY24 7.0B CNY
FY25 7.2B CNY
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +19.2 % p.a.
Revenue per share +11.6 %

of which total revenue +11.6 % · buybacks/dilution +0.1 %

EBIT margin +7.1 %
Tax rate +2.6 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) −2.8 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Jiangxi Copper Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0358

Peer Group

Copper · 59 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 51 · Above median
Fair Value upside +12% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 9% · Above median
Return on assets 5% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 4% · Below median
Revenue growth 25% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 3.3% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.12× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Copper median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 11.6× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 1.32× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.19× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 3.8× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
PEG 1.58× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE50 · sector 0
FUTURE100 · sector 100
PAST37 · sector 34
HEALTH94 · sector 92
DIVIDEND66 · sector 21

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Copper stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Southern Copper Corporation SCCO $216.28 $85.17 −61%
Freeport-McMoRan Inc FCX $75.74 $22.81 −70%
First Quantum Minerals Ltd FM C$43.46 C$16.35 −62%
Lundin Mining Corporation LUN C$35.76 C$22.65 −37%
Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group 000630 ¥6.37 ¥3.06 −52%
MMG Limited 1208 HK$9.08 HK$5.29 −42%
Hudbay Minerals Inc HBM C$38.79 C$21.25 −45%
Zhejiang Hailiang Co 002203 ¥19.78 ¥6.39 −68%
Capstone Copper Corp CS C$14.82 C$9.91 −33%
Yunnan Copper Co 000878 ¥17.06 ¥7.46 −56%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Jiangxi Copper (0358) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$41.13 versus a price of HK$36.58, about +12% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 0358?
Our model-based fair value for Jiangxi Copper is HK$41.13 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$36.58.
What is the quality score of 0358?
Jiangxi Copper has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Jiangxi Copper (0358)?
Jiangxi Copper reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$573B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 0358?
The net profit margin of Jiangxi Copper is about 1.4%, meaning it keeps roughly 1.4% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Jiangxi Copper pay a dividend?
Jiangxi Copper currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.28% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).
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