ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc (ZTO) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $17.9B · ISIN US98980A1051
What is ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc really worth?
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc
ZTO · US
A solid business, trading 27% below our fair value of $28.62.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 31, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 5 days ago
Share price −12.8% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- Solid quality (63/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety.
- Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 31, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $14.59 – $28.91 · fair‑value band $19.99 – $35.84 · the $20.91 price screens below the $28.62 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 31, 2026.
Analysis
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc (ZTO) currently trades at $20.91, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $28.62, implying the stock looks roughly 26.9% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $266.18 per share, and 26 of the 26 models we run sit above the $20.91 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $54.22, and 0 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc generated revenue of $51.5B at a net margin of 17.9%. Revenue grew 22.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 14.9%. Net debt stands at $1.4B. Fundamentals as of Aug 31, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $19.99 (bear case) to $35.84 (bull case); at $20.91, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 27% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −5% fair-value upside, at 37%, ZTO screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $0.7038 per share, which is 2.5 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($266.18) versus Asset-Based ($54.22). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (74).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 31, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 61 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 61
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. provides express delivery and other value-added logistics services in the People's Republic of China. It also offers less-than-truckload (LTL) logistics services; integrated logistics solutions for warehousing, distribution, and transportation; and freight forwarding services.
Full company description
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. provides express delivery and other value-added logistics services in the People's Republic of China. It also offers less-than-truckload (LTL) logistics services; integrated logistics solutions for warehousing, distribution, and transportation; and freight forwarding services. The company was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc reported revenue of $47.8B in FY2025 versus $30.4B in FY2021, a compound +12.0%/yr. Reported net income was $8.8B in FY2025, compounding +16.7%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +23.3 % · buybacks/dilution −1.4 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- ZTO Express Q2 Earnings & Revenues Increase Year Over Year
- ZTO Express Shares Slip Despite Strong Second-Quarter Profit Growth
- ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc (ZTO) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Record Profit Surge and ...
- ZTO Express Non-GAAP EPADS of $0.59 beats by $0.08, revenue of $2.14B misses by $20M
Peer Group
Integrated Freight & Logistics · 206 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Integrated Freight & Logistics median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 45/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Integrated Freight & Logistics stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 31, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| United Parcel Service, Inc UPS | $105.33 | $103.34 | −2% |
| FedEx Corporation FDX | $330.88 | $347.68 | +5% |
| Deutsche Post AG DHL | €56.14 | €53.18 | −5% |
| DSV A/S DSV | kr 1,358 | kr 712.57 | −48% |
| Kuehne + Nagel International AG KNIN | CHF 219.90 | CHF 147.92 | −33% |
| J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc JBHT | $256.48 | $133.80 | −48% |
| S.F. Holding 002352 | ¥32.96 | ¥48.64 | +48% |
| C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc CHRW | $150.39 | $86.56 | −42% |
| Expeditors International of Washington, Inc EXPD | $190.97 | $115.95 | −39% |
| Hyundai Glovis Co 086280 | 196,700 KRW | 468,982 KRW | +138% |
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