Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $22.5B · ISIN US3021301094
What is Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. really worth?
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.
EXPD · US
A strong business, but trading 61% above our fair value of $115.95.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 30, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 6 days ago
Share price +3.1% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 81/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($143.72). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $82.79 – $190.97 · fair‑value band $88.38 – $143.72 · the $187.13 price screens above the $115.95 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
Analysis
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD) currently trades at $187.13, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $115.95, implying the stock looks roughly 61.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 81/100 (high quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $146.12 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the $187.13 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $12.07, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. generated revenue of $11.2B at a net margin of 7.5%. Revenue grew 4.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 36.6%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $744M. Fundamentals as of Aug 30, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $88.38 (bear case) to $143.72 (bull case); at $187.13, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 71% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −2% fair-value upside, at −38%, EXPD screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $3.16 per share, which is 2.7 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($146.12) versus Asset-Based ($12.07). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 30, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 79 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 79
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides logistics services in the Americas, North Asia, South Asia, Europe, and Middle East, Africa, and India.
Full company description
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides logistics services in the Americas, North Asia, South Asia, Europe, and Middle East, Africa, and India. The company offers airfreight services, such as air freight consolidation and forwarding; ocean freight and ocean services, including ocean freight consolidation, direct ocean forwarding, and order management; customs brokerage and other services, import, intra-continental ground transportation and delivery, and warehousing and distribution services; and customs clearance, purchase order management, vendor consolidation, time-definite transportation services, temperature-controlled transit, cargo insurance, specialized cargo monitoring and tracking, and other logistics solutions. It also provides optimization, trade compliance consulting, cargo insurance, cargo security, and solutions. In addition, it acts as a freight consolidator or as an agent for the airline that carries the shipment. Further, the company provides ancillary services that include preparation of shipping and customs documentation, packing, crating, insurance services, and the preparation of documentation to comply with local export and import laws. The company was incorporated in 1979 and is headquartered in Bellevue, Washington.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. reported revenue of $11.1B in FY2025 versus $16.5B in FY2021, a compound −9.5%/yr. Reported net income was $814M in FY2025, compounding −12.9%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +5.4 % · buybacks/dilution +3.2 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
EXPD screens 61% overvalued. Compare with United Parcel Service, Inc →
Peer Group
Integrated Freight & Logistics · 206 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Integrated Freight & Logistics median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 30/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Integrated Freight & Logistics stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 30, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| United Parcel Service, Inc UPS | $105.33 | $103.34 | −2% |
| FedEx Corporation FDX | $330.88 | $347.68 | +5% |
| Deutsche Post AG DHL | €56.14 | €53.18 | −5% |
| DSV A/S DSV | kr 1,358 | kr 712.57 | −48% |
| Kuehne + Nagel International AG KNIN | CHF 219.90 | CHF 147.92 | −33% |
| J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc JBHT | $256.48 | $133.80 | −48% |
| S.F. Holding 002352 | ¥32.96 | ¥48.64 | +48% |
| C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc CHRW | $150.39 | $86.56 | −42% |
| ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc ZTO | $21.50 | $28.62 | +33% |
| Hyundai Glovis Co 086280 | 196,700 KRW | 468,982 KRW | +138% |
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