S.F. Holding (002352) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · CN · Market cap 169B CNY
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated today
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from ¥48.64 to ¥31.13 (−36.0%) since Jul 9, 2026. Share price +2.2% over the past month.
A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- Our model range runs from ¥23.35 (bear) to ¥38.92 (bull), base ¥31.13. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 61/100 (solid quality) with medium evidence: read the verdict with care.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥30.82 – ¥92.85 · fair‑value band ¥23.35 – ¥38.92 · the ¥32.74 price screens above the ¥31.13 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
S.F. Holding (002352) currently trades at ¥32.74, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥31.13, implying the stock looks roughly 4.9% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, S.F. Holding generated revenue of 313B CNY at a net margin of 3.7%. Revenue grew 6.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 11.1%. Net debt stands at 3.6B CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥23.35 (bear case) to ¥38.92 (bull case); at ¥32.74, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 14% fair-value upside, at -5%, 002352 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (¥106.04) versus Asset-Based (¥13.86). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 61 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 38
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
S.F. Holding Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides integrated logistics services in China, Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Express and Large Items, Same-City Instant Delivery, and Supply Chain and International.
Full company description
S.F. Holding Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides integrated logistics services in China, Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Express and Large Items, Same-City Instant Delivery, and Supply Chain and International. It offers time-sensitive and economy express deliveries, as well as international, bulk, cold chain, and pharmaceutical shipping; same-city instant and last-mile delivery services; international express delivery, international freight forwarding, agency, and supply chain services, as well as warehousing and distribution services. The company also provides technology services, including smart express delivery, smart life, smart business, and smart supply chain software, as well as smart hardware; and supply chain solutions for automotive, technology, industrial equipment, consumer goods, retail food and catering, life sciences and pharmaceuticals, finance and insurance, and government and enterprise services sectors. In addition, it is involved in air cargo and mail transportation; technical maintenance and development services; business information and enterprise management consulting; value-added telecommunications services; management of e-commerce industrial parks; driving services; factoring business; financing and wealth management; retail; leasing; property management; scientific research and technical services; postal services; and asset, capital, and investment management. The company was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Shenzhen, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
S.F. Holding reported revenue of ¥308B in FY2025 versus ¥207B in FY2021, a compound +10.4%/yr. Reported net income was ¥11.1B in FY2025, compounding +27.0%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +24.7 pp · buybacks/dilution −34.2 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Peer Group
Integrated Freight & Logistics · 218 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Integrated Freight & Logistics median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Integrated Freight & Logistics stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| United Parcel Service, Inc UPS | $103.91 | $103.34 | -1% |
| FedEx Corporation FDX | $326.77 | $347.68 | +6% |
| Deutsche Post AG DHL | €55.32 | €53.18 | -4% |
| DSV A/S DSV | kr 1,380 | kr 712.57 | -48% |
| J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc JBHT | $275.96 | $133.80 | -52% |
| ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc 2057 | HK$185.20 | HK$224.26 | +21% |
| Hyundai Glovis Co 086280 | 199,700 KRW | 468,982 KRW | +135% |
| YTO Express Group 600233 | ¥18.48 | ¥26.51 | +43% |
| JD Logistics, Inc 2618 | HK$14.17 | HK$21.45 | +51% |
| Sinotrans Limited 601598 | ¥6.46 | ¥7.38 | +14% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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