Deutsche Post AG (DHL) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · DE · Market cap €63.7B · ISIN DE0005552004
What is Deutsche Post AG really worth?
A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value of €53.18.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Sep 1, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 4 days ago
Share price −1.1% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin.
- The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €24.98 – €57.82 · fair‑value band €39.88 – €66.47 · the €54.96 price screens above the €53.18 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.
Analysis
Deutsche Post AG (DHL) currently trades at €54.96, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €53.18, implying the stock looks roughly 3.3% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of €143.20 per share, and 17 of the 26 models we run sit above the €54.96 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €13.31, and 9 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Deutsche Post AG generated revenue of €83.0B at a net margin of 4.3%. Revenue declined 1.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 15.6%. Net debt stands at €22.1B. Fundamentals as of Sep 1, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €39.88 (bear case) to €66.47 (bull case); at €54.96, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 55% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −2% fair-value upside, at −3%, DHL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly €0.8053 per share, which is 1.5 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (€143.20) versus Asset-Based (€13.31). Highest evidence: EPV (74).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 1, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 60 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 73
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Deutsche Post AG operates as a mail and logistics company in Germany, rest of Europe, the Americas, the Asia Pacific, the Middle East, and Africa. The company operates through five segments: Express; Global Forwarding, Freight; Supply Chain; eCommerce; and Post & Parcel Germany.
Full company description
Deutsche Post AG operates as a mail and logistics company in Germany, rest of Europe, the Americas, the Asia Pacific, the Middle East, and Africa. The company operates through five segments: Express; Global Forwarding, Freight; Supply Chain; eCommerce; and Post & Parcel Germany. The Express segment offers time-definite courier and express services to business and private customers. The Global Forwarding, Freight segment provides air, ocean, and overland freight forwarding services; and offers multimodal and sector-specific solutions. The Supply Chain segment delivers customized logistics services and supply chain solutions to its customers based on modular components, including warehousing and transport and value-added services. The eCommerce segment provides parcel delivery and cross-border services. The Post & Parcel Germany segment transports, sorts, and delivers documents and goods; and additional services, such as registered mail, insured items, redirection, and storage, as well as export services. Deutsche Post AG was incorporated in 1995 and is headquartered in Bonn, Germany.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Deutsche Post AG reported revenue of €82.9B in FY2025 versus €81.7B in FY2021, a compound +0.3%/yr. Reported net income was €3.5B in FY2025, compounding −8.8%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +4.1 % · buybacks/dilution +0.7 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Retail 3PL Market Report Now Available — Forecasts Market Growth from $193.38B (2026) to $254.24B by 2031, Profiling DHL, XPO, GXO, UPS, Kue
- UPS, FedEx and DHL are giving back billions in Trump tariffs to American customers — are you eligible for a fat refund?
- DHL 30% profit growth led by heavy air freight
- Deutsche Post Q2 Earnings Call Highlights
Peer Group
Integrated Freight & Logistics · 206 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Integrated Freight & Logistics median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 45/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Integrated Freight & Logistics stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 1, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| United Parcel Service, Inc UPS | $105.33 | $103.34 | −2% |
| FedEx Corporation FDX | $330.88 | $347.68 | +5% |
| DSV A/S DSV | kr 1,358 | kr 712.57 | −48% |
| Kuehne + Nagel International AG KNIN | CHF 219.90 | CHF 147.92 | −33% |
| J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc JBHT | $256.48 | $133.80 | −48% |
| S.F. Holding 002352 | ¥32.96 | ¥48.64 | +48% |
| C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc CHRW | $150.39 | $86.56 | −42% |
| Expeditors International of Washington, Inc EXPD | $190.97 | $115.95 | −39% |
| ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc ZTO | $21.50 | $28.62 | +33% |
| Hyundai Glovis Co 086280 | 196,700 KRW | 468,982 KRW | +138% |
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