XPO Logistics Inc (XPO) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $25.2B · ISIN US9837931008
What is XPO Logistics Inc really worth?
XPO Logistics Inc
XPO · US
Below-average quality, and trading another 227% above our fair value of $56.52.
Risks
Fair value as of: Sep 5, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated today
Share price −9.1% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($70.65). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide ($22.73 to $70.65). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (47/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $25.15 – $228.37 · fair‑value band $22.73 – $70.65 · the $184.80 price screens above the $56.52 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.
Analysis
XPO Logistics Inc (XPO) currently trades at $184.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $56.52, implying the stock looks roughly 227.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $81.34 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the $184.80 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $10.62, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, XPO Logistics Inc generated revenue of $8.3B at a net margin of 4.2%. Revenue grew 7.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 19.9%. Net debt stands at $4.4B. Fundamentals as of Sep 5, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $22.73 (bear case) to $70.65 (bull case); at $184.80, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 58% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −65% fair-value upside, at −69%, XPO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $1.98 per share, which is 3.5 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($81.34) versus Asset-Based ($10.62). Highest evidence: EPV (74).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 5, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 46 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 48
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
XPO, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides freight transportation services in the United States, North America, France, the United Kingdom, and rest of Europe. The company operates in two segments, North American Less-Than-Truckload (LTL) and European Transportation.
Full company description
XPO, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides freight transportation services in the United States, North America, France, the United Kingdom, and rest of Europe. The company operates in two segments, North American Less-Than-Truckload (LTL) and European Transportation. The North American LTL segment provides shippers with geographic density and day-definite domestic and cross-border services to the U.S., Mexico, Canada, and the Caribbean. The European Transportation segment offers dedicated truckload, LTL, truck brokerage, managed transportation, last mile, freight forwarding, and warehousing and multimodal solutions to an extensive base of customers within the consumer, trade, and industrial markets. The company was formerly known as XPO Logistics, Inc. and changed its name to XPO, Inc. in December 2022. The company was founded in 1989 and is based in Greenwich, Connecticut.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
XPO Logistics Inc reported revenue of $8.2B in FY2025 versus $7.2B in FY2021, a compound +3.2%/yr. Reported net income was $316M in FY2025, compounding −1.5%/yr from FY2021.
XPO screens 227% overvalued. Compare with Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Retail 3PL Market Report Now Available — Forecasts Market Growth from $193.38B (2026) to $254.24B by 2031, Profiling DHL, XPO, GXO, UPS, Kue
- XPO (XPO) Stock Could Be Below Fair Value While Earnings Look Rich
- XPO names chief legal officer
Peer Group
Trucking · 47 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Trucking median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Trucking stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 5, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc ODFL | $198.63 | $102.54 | −48% |
| TFI International Inc TFII | $127.83 | $110.79 | −13% |
| Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings KNX | $68.51 | $8.58 | −87% |
| Saia, Inc SAIA | $343.92 | $127.94 | −63% |
| Schneider National, Inc SNDR | $35.74 | $12.37 | −65% |
| RXO, Inc RXO | $20.00 | $3.48 | −83% |
| ArcBest Corporation ARCB | $140.63 | $45.89 | −67% |
| Werner Enterprises, Inc WERN | $37.85 | $8.24 | −78% |
| Dazhong Transportation (Group) Co 600611 | ¥4.43 | ¥1.20 | −73% |
| Mullen Group MTL | C$26.50 | C$19.35 | −27% |
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