TFI International Inc (TFII) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $12.8B · ISIN CA87241L1094
What is TFI International Inc really worth?
TFI International Inc
TFII · US
A solid business, but trading 20% above our fair value of $110.79.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Sep 3, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated yesterday
Share price −6.2% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($76.20 to $138.48) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $68.65 – $162.83 · fair‑value band $76.20 – $138.48 · the $132.81 price screens above the $110.79 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 3, 2026.
Analysis
TFI International Inc (TFII) currently trades at $132.81, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $110.79, implying the stock looks roughly 19.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $180.76 per share, and 12 of the 26 models we run sit above the $132.81 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $21.77, and 14 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, TFI International Inc generated revenue of $7.9B at a net margin of 3.8%. Revenue declined 0.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 11.3%. Net debt stands at $3.5B. Fundamentals as of Sep 3, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $76.20 (bear case) to $138.48 (bull case); at $132.81, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 66% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −67% fair-value upside, at −17%, TFII screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $1.18 per share, which is 1.1 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($180.76) versus Asset-Based ($21.77). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (75).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 3, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 64 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 55
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
TFI International Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides transportation and logistics services in the United States, Canada, and Mexico. It operates through Less-Than-Truckload (LTL), Truckload (TL), and Logistics segments. The Less-Than-Truckload segment is involved in the pickup, consolidation, transportation, and delivery of smaller loads.
Full company description
TFI International Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides transportation and logistics services in the United States, Canada, and Mexico. It operates through Less-Than-Truckload (LTL), Truckload (TL), and Logistics segments. The Less-Than-Truckload segment is involved in the pickup, consolidation, transportation, and delivery of smaller loads. The Truckload segment offers expedited transportation, flatbed, tank, container, and dedicated services. This segment also carries full loads directly from the customer to the destination using a closed van or specialized equipment. The Logistics segment provides asset-light logistics services, including brokerage, freight forwarding, and transportation management, as well as small package parcel delivery. As of December 31, 2025, it operates 12,927 trucks, 40,687 trailers, and 6,194 independent contractors. The company was formerly known as TransForce Inc. and changed its name to TFI International Inc. in December 2016. TFI International Inc. was founded in 1957 and is headquartered in Saint-Laurent, Canada.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
TFI International Inc reported revenue of $11.0B in FY2025 versus $7.2B in FY2021, a compound +11.1%/yr. Reported net income was $434M in FY2025, compounding −12.9%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +12.8 % · buybacks/dilution +1.7 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
TFII screens 20% overvalued. Compare with Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Wall Street Analysts Think TFI International (TFII) Could Surge 28.97%: Read This Before Placing a Bet
- TFII vs. CHRW: Which Stock Is the Better Value Option?
- TFI International (TSX:TFII) Could Be 23% Undervalued On Q2 Earnings
- TFII vs. CHRW: Which Stock Should Value Investors Buy Now?
Peer Group
Trucking · 47 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Trucking median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Trucking stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 3, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc ODFL | $198.63 | $102.54 | −48% |
| XPO, Inc XPO | $184.80 | $56.52 | −69% |
| Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings KNX | $68.51 | $8.58 | −87% |
| Saia, Inc SAIA | $343.92 | $127.94 | −63% |
| Schneider National, Inc SNDR | $35.74 | $12.37 | −65% |
| RXO, Inc RXO | $20.00 | $3.48 | −83% |
| ArcBest Corporation ARCB | $140.63 | $45.89 | −67% |
| Werner Enterprises, Inc WERN | $37.85 | $8.24 | −78% |
| Dazhong Transportation (Group) Co 600611 | ¥4.43 | ¥1.20 | −73% |
| Mullen Group MTL | C$26.50 | C$19.35 | −27% |
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