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Werner Enterprises Inc (WERN) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · US · Market cap $2.8B · ISIN US9507551086

What is Werner Enterprises Inc really worth?

WE Werner Enterprises Inc logo Werner Enterprises Inc WERN · US
Price$38.50
Fair Value$16.48
Upside−57.2%
Quality48/100

Below-average quality, and trading another 134% above our fair value of $16.48.

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Risks

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +4.6 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -0.3% net margin
!Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (1/13)
!Narrow moat 20/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on dividend: 29 out of 100

For context

·1.45% dividend yield
Evidence: Medium Range $16.48 – $26.36

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 8 valuation models · updated 22 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from $8.24 to $16.48 (+100.0%) since Jul 18, 2026. Share price +0.5% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($26.36). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (48/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$47.29 $22.87 Fair Value $16.48 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $22.87 – $47.29 · fair‑value band $16.48 – $26.36 · the $38.50 price screens above the $16.48 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Werner Enterprises Inc (WERN) currently trades at $38.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $16.48, implying the stock looks roughly 133.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $15.23 per share, and 1 of the 6 models we run sit above the $38.50 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $7.75, and 5 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Over the trailing twelve months, Werner Enterprises Inc generated revenue of $3.1B at a net margin of −0.3%. Revenue grew 13.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of −1.2%. Net debt stands at $692M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $16.48 (bear case) to $26.36 (bull case); at $38.50, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 68% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −65% fair-value upside, at −57%, WERN screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Note: the current price implies far more future growth than the conservative anchors of our models allow (base growth is deliberately capped, we do not regard such extreme rates as sustainable). Our models are not designed for expectations this high; that is why the individual models scatter extremely ($3.58 to $65.67). Read the values as a conservative anchor, not as a price target.
Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
EPV $0.7800 68
EV/EBITDA $46.37 $65.67 $84.98 67
ROIC Compounder $0.7800 65
All 8 models by family
Earnings-Based
EPV $0.7800 68
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $4.99 $9.95 $15.06 64
DDM Multi-Stage $4.99 $7.75 $10.50 64
Multiples
EV/EBIT $3.29 $8.24 $13.18 61
EV/EBITDA $46.37 $65.67 $84.98 67
EV/Revenue $3.58 $8.12 50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $11.37 $15.23 $22.73 54
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder $0.7800 65

Widest divergence: Asset-Based ($15.23) versus Dividend Discount ($7.75). Highest evidence: EPV (68).

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Key figures & financial health

P/S ratio 0.90 TTM
EPS (TTM) $−0.1500
Dividend yield 1.5%
Net margin −0.5% FY2025
Return on equity −1.2% TTM
Return on assets (EBIT) 6.4% avg 5y
More key figures
Profitability
Operating margin 0.8% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) $3.1B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +13.6% 3y avg −3.3%
EPS growth (YoY) +380%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow −$68.5M FY2025
Net debt $692M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 48/100

Of which business quality 46 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 56

Profitability 26
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 29
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 14
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 52
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 88
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 42
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 56
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 71
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Werner Enterprises, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in transporting truckload shipments of general commodities in interstate and intrastate commerce in the United States, Mexico, Canada, and internationally.

Full company description

Werner Enterprises, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in transporting truckload shipments of general commodities in interstate and intrastate commerce in the United States, Mexico, Canada, and internationally. The company operates a fleet of medium-to-long-haul vans that transport various consumer nondurable products and other commodities in truckload quantities using dry van trailers; the expedited fleet, which provides time-sensitive truckload services using driver teams; a regional short-haul fleet for truckload van service; and temperature-controlled fleet, which offers truckload services for temperature-sensitive products using temperature-controlled trailers to retail distribution center or manufacturing facility, utilizing either dry van or specialized trailers. It also provides non-asset-based transportation and logistics services, comprising truckload logistics, which uses contracted carriers to complete shipments for brokerage customers and freight management customers, which it offers logistics management services and solutions; intermodal, which offers rail transportation through alliances with rail and drayage providers as an alternative to truck transportation; and werner final mile offers residential and commercial deliveries of large or heavy items using third-party agents and independent contractors. In addition, the company sells used trucks and trailers; and trades used trucks to original equipment manufacturers. It transports retail store merchandise, consumer products, food and beverage products and manufactured products. As of December 31, 2025, it had a fleet of 7,100 trucks, which included 6,785 that were company-operated, as well as 315 owned and operated by independent contractors; 28,780 trailers that comprised dry vans, flatbeds, and temperature-controlled, and other trailers; and 27 drayage company trucks and 170 Final Mile delivery trucks. Werner Enterprises, Inc. was founded in 1956 and is headquartered in Omaha, Nebraska.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Werner Enterprises Inc reported revenue of $3.0B in FY2025 versus $2.7B in FY2021, a compound +2.1%/yr. Reported net income was −$14.4M in FY2025.

Growth Quality 16/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$3.0B
Latest YoY
−1.8%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−3.3%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+4.6%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (40Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+9.7%
Value creation/yr We only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Revenue +2.1%/yr
FY21 $2.7B
FY22 $3.3B
FY23 $3.3B
FY24 $3.0B
FY25 $3.0B
Net income
FY21 $259M
FY22 $241M
FY23 $112M
FY24 $34.2M
FY25 −$14.4M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) −2.1 % p.a.
Revenue per share +6.8 %

of which total revenue +5.0 % · buybacks/dilution +1.6 %

EBIT margin −8.0 %
Tax rate +2.6 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) −2.9 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

WERN screens 134% overvalued. Compare with Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Werner Enterprises Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/WERN

Peer Group

Trucking · 47 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 48 · Below median
Fair Value upside −57% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets 1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 0% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 1% · Below median
Revenue growth 14% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 1.5% · Below median
Debt / equity 0.55× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Trucking median · lower = cheaper

P/B 2.03× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 0.90× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 9.5× · Pricier than median
PEG 3.83× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 11
FUTURE68 · sector 17
PAST0 · sector 14
HEALTH72 · sector 94
DIVIDEND29 · sector 35

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Trucking stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc ODFL $198.63 $102.54 −48%
XPO, Inc XPO $184.80 $56.52 −69%
TFI International Inc TFII $127.83 $110.79 −13%
Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings KNX $68.51 $8.58 −87%
Saia, Inc SAIA $343.92 $127.94 −63%
Schneider National, Inc SNDR $35.74 $12.37 −65%
RXO, Inc RXO $20.00 $3.48 −83%
ArcBest Corporation ARCB $140.63 $45.89 −67%
Dazhong Transportation (Group) Co 600611 ¥4.43 ¥1.20 −73%
Mullen Group MTL C$26.50 C$19.35 −27%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Werner Enterprises Inc (WERN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $16.48 versus a price of $38.50, about −57% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of WERN?
Our model-based fair value for Werner Enterprises Inc is $16.48 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $38.50.
What is the quality score of WERN?
Werner Enterprises Inc has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Werner Enterprises Inc (WERN)?
Werner Enterprises Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $3.1B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of WERN?
The net profit margin of Werner Enterprises Inc is about −0.3%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Werner Enterprises Inc pay a dividend?
Werner Enterprises Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.45% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).
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