MTL.TO (MTL) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · CA · Market cap C$2.2B (≈ $1.6B) · ISIN CA6252841045
What is MTL.TO really worth?
A solid business, but trading 30% above our fair value of C$19.35.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 18, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 17 days ago
Share price −8.1% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (C$9.95 to C$24.94) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$8.80 – C$28.73 · fair‑value band C$9.95 – C$24.94 · the C$25.07 price screens above the C$19.35 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 18, 2026.
Analysis
MTL.TO (MTL) currently trades at C$25.07, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$19.35, implying the stock looks roughly 29.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of C$18.81 per share, and 3 of the 24 models we run sit above the C$25.07 price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at C$5.61, and 21 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, MTL.TO generated revenue of C$2.2B at a net margin of 4.3%. Revenue grew 10.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 8.8%. Net debt stands at C$1.1B. Fundamentals as of Aug 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from C$9.95 (bear case) to C$24.94 (bull case); at C$25.07, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 102% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −67% fair-value upside, at −23%, MTL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly C$0.1223 per share, which is 0.6 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF (C$18.81) versus Earnings-Based (C$5.61). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (78).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 56 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 86
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Mullen Group Ltd. provides a range of trucking and logistics services in Canada and the United States. It operates through four segments: Less-Than-Truckload, Logistics & Warehousing, Specialized & Industrial Services, and U.S. & International Logistics.
Full company description
Mullen Group Ltd. provides a range of trucking and logistics services in Canada and the United States. It operates through four segments: Less-Than-Truckload, Logistics & Warehousing, Specialized & Industrial Services, and U.S. & International Logistics. The Less-Than-Truckload segment delivers general freight, such as smaller shipments, packages, and parcels; and pharmaceutical and package products. The Logistics & Warehousing segment offers full truckload, specialized transportation, warehousing, and fulfillment centers that handle e-commerce transactions and transload facilities for intermodal and bulk shipments; technology solutions, including transportation, inventory, and warehouse management systems; and warehousing and distribution services. The Specialized & Industrial Services segment provides specialized equipment and services to oil and gas, environmental, construction, pipeline, utility, telecom, and civil industries; and specialized services comprising water management, environmental, pipeline and civil construction, industrial cleaning and turnaround, fluid management, and municipal development and emergency support services, as well as drilling and drilling related services. The U.S. & International Logistics segment offers logistics services through professional representatives and station agents. This segment also owns SilverExpress, a proprietary integrated transportation management platform. Mullen Group Ltd. was founded in 1949 and is headquartered in Okotoks, Canada.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
MTL.TO reported revenue of C$2.1B in FY2025 versus C$1.5B in FY2021, a compound +9.6%/yr. Reported net income was C$91.1M in FY2025, compounding +5.9%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +5.8 % · buybacks/dilution −0.3 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
MTL screens 30% overvalued. Compare with Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc →
Peer Group
Trucking · 47 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Trucking median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Trucking stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc ODFL | $198.63 | $102.54 | −48% |
| XPO, Inc XPO | $184.80 | $56.52 | −69% |
| TFI International Inc TFII | $127.83 | $110.79 | −13% |
| Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings KNX | $68.51 | $8.58 | −87% |
| Saia, Inc SAIA | $343.92 | $127.94 | −63% |
| Schneider National, Inc SNDR | $35.74 | $12.37 | −65% |
| RXO, Inc RXO | $20.00 | $3.48 | −83% |
| ArcBest Corporation ARCB | $140.63 | $45.89 | −67% |
| Werner Enterprises, Inc WERN | $37.85 | $8.24 | −78% |
| Dazhong Transportation (Group) Co 600611 | ¥4.43 | ¥1.20 | −73% |
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