Saia Inc (SAIA) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $11.7B · ISIN US78709Y1055
What is Saia Inc really worth?
Saia Inc
SAIA · US
Below-average quality, and trading another 170% above our fair value of $127.94.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 27, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 9 days ago
Share price −7.6% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($209.46). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide ($77.90 to $209.46). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (48/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $170.76 – $605.92 · fair‑value band $77.90 – $209.46 · the $345.81 price screens above the $127.94 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 27, 2026.
Analysis
Saia Inc (SAIA) currently trades at $345.81, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $127.94, implying the stock looks roughly 170.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $183.93 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the $345.81 price. Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $12.96, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Saia Inc generated revenue of $3.3B at a net margin of 7.8%. Revenue grew 2.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.2%. Net debt stands at $398M. Fundamentals as of Aug 27, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $77.90 (bear case) to $209.46 (bull case); at $345.81, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and 39% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −67% fair-value upside, at −63%, SAIA screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $6.44 per share, which is 5.0 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($183.93) versus Dividend Discount ($5.48). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 27, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 52 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 30
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Saia, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a transportation company in North America. The company provides less-than-truckload services for shipments between 100 and 10,000 pounds. It also offers other value-added services, including brokered truckload, expedited transportation, and other logistics services.
Full company description
Saia, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a transportation company in North America. The company provides less-than-truckload services for shipments between 100 and 10,000 pounds. It also offers other value-added services, including brokered truckload, expedited transportation, and other logistics services. As of December 31, 2025, it operated 213 owned and leased terminals; and owned approximately 7,700 tractors and 26,500 trailers. The company was formerly known as SCS Transportation, Inc. and changed its name to Saia, Inc. in July 2002. Saia, Inc. was founded in 1924 and is headquartered in Johns Creek, Georgia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Saia Inc reported revenue of $3.2B in FY2025 versus $2.3B in FY2021, a compound +9.0%/yr. Reported net income was $255M in FY2025, compounding +0.2%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +10.7 % · buybacks/dilution −0.5 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
SAIA screens 170% overvalued. Compare with Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- SAIA is on watch after Deutsche Bank issues bullish catalyst call
- Saia Announces the Recipients of its 2026 Student Scholarship Program
- Saia Earns Two 2026 Logistics Management Quest for Quality Awards
Peer Group
Trucking · 47 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Trucking median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Trucking stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 27, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc ODFL | $198.63 | $102.54 | −48% |
| XPO, Inc XPO | $184.80 | $56.52 | −69% |
| TFI International Inc TFII | $127.83 | $110.79 | −13% |
| Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings KNX | $68.51 | $8.58 | −87% |
| Schneider National, Inc SNDR | $35.74 | $12.37 | −65% |
| RXO, Inc RXO | $20.00 | $3.48 | −83% |
| ArcBest Corporation ARCB | $140.63 | $45.89 | −67% |
| Werner Enterprises, Inc WERN | $37.85 | $8.24 | −78% |
| Dazhong Transportation (Group) Co 600611 | ¥4.43 | ¥1.20 | −73% |
| Mullen Group MTL | C$26.50 | C$19.35 | −27% |
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