Old Dominion Freight Line Inc (ODFL) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $47.5B · ISIN US6795801009
What is Old Dominion Freight Line Inc really worth?
Old Dominion Freight Line Inc
ODFL · US
A solid business, but trading 81% above our fair value of $102.54.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Sep 1, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 4 days ago
Share price −15.3% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 73/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($129.21). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- A fairly wide model range ($60.42 to $129.21) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $113.58 – $248.73 · fair‑value band $60.42 – $129.21 · the $185.75 price screens above the $102.54 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.
Analysis
Old Dominion Freight Line Inc (ODFL) currently trades at $185.75, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $102.54, implying the stock looks roughly 81.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 73/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $101.42 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the $185.75 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $13.89, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Old Dominion Freight Line Inc generated revenue of $5.5B at a net margin of 18.5%. Revenue declined 2.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 23.3%. Net debt stands at $21.3M. Fundamentals as of Sep 1, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $60.42 (bear case) to $129.21 (bull case); at $185.75, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 48% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −67% fair-value upside, at −45%, ODFL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $2.48 per share, which is 2.4 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($101.42) versus Asset-Based ($13.89). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (75).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 1, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 71 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 46
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. operates as a less-than-truckload motor carrier in the United States and North America. The company offers regional, inter-regional, and national less-than-truckload services, as well as expedited transportation services.
Full company description
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. operates as a less-than-truckload motor carrier in the United States and North America. The company offers regional, inter-regional, and national less-than-truckload services, as well as expedited transportation services. It also provides various value-added services, including container drayage, truckload brokerage, and supply chain consulting. In addition, the company operates fleet maintenance centers. As of December 31, 2025, it owned and operated 10,184 tractors, 30,824 linehaul trailers, and 14,313 pickup and delivery trailers. Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. was founded in 1934 and is headquartered in Thomasville, North Carolina.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Old Dominion Freight Line Inc reported revenue of $5.5B in FY2025 versus $5.3B in FY2021, a compound +1.1%/yr. Reported net income was $1.0B in FY2025, compounding −0.3%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +7.8 % · buybacks/dilution +1.9 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
ODFL screens 81% overvalued. Compare with XPO, Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Why Is Old Dominion (ODFL) Down 5.8% Since Last Earnings Report?
- Old Dominion EPS Estimates Northbound: How to Play the Stock?
Peer Group
Trucking · 47 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Trucking median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Trucking stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 1, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| XPO, Inc XPO | $184.80 | $56.52 | −69% |
| TFI International Inc TFII | $127.83 | $110.79 | −13% |
| Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings KNX | $68.51 | $8.58 | −87% |
| Saia, Inc SAIA | $343.92 | $127.94 | −63% |
| Schneider National, Inc SNDR | $35.74 | $12.37 | −65% |
| RXO, Inc RXO | $20.00 | $3.48 | −83% |
| ArcBest Corporation ARCB | $140.63 | $45.89 | −67% |
| Werner Enterprises, Inc WERN | $37.85 | $8.24 | −78% |
| Dazhong Transportation (Group) Co 600611 | ¥4.43 | ¥1.20 | −73% |
| Mullen Group MTL | C$26.50 | C$19.35 | −27% |
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