ArcBest Corp (ARCB) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $3.3B · ISIN US03937C1053
What is ArcBest Corp really worth?
ArcBest Corp
ARCB · US
A solid business, but trading 199% above our fair value of $45.89.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Share price −4.8% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($60.73). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $52.40 – $173.22 · fair‑value band $34.42 – $60.73 · the $137.34 price screens above the $45.89 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
ArcBest Corp (ARCB) currently trades at $137.34, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $45.89, implying the stock looks roughly 199.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $60.79 per share, and 1 of the 25 models we run sit above the $137.34 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $6.24, and 24 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, ArcBest Corp generated revenue of $4.0B at a net margin of 1.4%. Revenue grew 3.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 4.3%. Net debt stands at $567M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $34.42 (bear case) to $60.73 (bull case); at $137.34, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 132% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −65% fair-value upside, at −67%, ARCB screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $1.33 per share, which is 2.9 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($60.79) versus Dividend Discount ($6.24). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (78).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 56 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 62
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
ArcBest Corporation, an integrated logistics company, provides ground, air, and ocean transportation solutions worldwide. It operates in two segments, Asset-Based and Asset-Light.
Full company description
ArcBest Corporation, an integrated logistics company, provides ground, air, and ocean transportation solutions worldwide. It operates in two segments, Asset-Based and Asset-Light. The Asset-Based segment provides less-than-truckload (LTL) services that transports general commodities, such as food, textiles, apparel, furniture, appliances, chemicals, non-bulk petroleum products, rubber, plastics, metal and metal products, wood, glass, automotive parts, machinery, and miscellaneous manufactured products. This segment also offers motor carrier freight transportation services to customers in Mexico through arrangements with trucking companies. The Asset-Light segment provides ground expedite services; third-party transportation brokerage services by sourcing various capacity solutions, including dry van over-the-road, temperature-controlled and refrigerated, flatbed, intermodal or container shipping, and specialized equipment; less-than-container and full container load ocean transportation services; warehousing and distribution services; managed transportation services; and moving services to "do-it-yourself' consumer, as well as final mile, time critical, product launch, retail logistics, supply chain optimization, brokered LTL, and trade show shipping services. This segment also offers premium logistics services, such as deployment of specialized equipment to meet linehaul requirements; and international freight transportation with air, ocean, and ground services. The company was formerly known as Arkansas Best Corporation and changed its name to ArcBest Corporation in May 2014. The company was founded in 1923 and is headquartered in Fort Smith, Arkansas.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
ArcBest Corp reported revenue of $4.0B in FY2025 versus $3.8B in FY2021, a compound +1.6%/yr. Reported net income was $60.1M in FY2025, compounding −27.2%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +5.2 % · buybacks/dilution +1.1 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
ARCB screens 199% overvalued. Compare with Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc →
Peer Group
Trucking · 47 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Trucking median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Trucking stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc ODFL | $198.63 | $102.54 | −48% |
| XPO, Inc XPO | $184.80 | $56.52 | −69% |
| TFI International Inc TFII | $127.83 | $110.79 | −13% |
| Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings KNX | $68.51 | $8.58 | −87% |
| Saia, Inc SAIA | $343.92 | $127.94 | −63% |
| Schneider National, Inc SNDR | $35.74 | $12.37 | −65% |
| RXO, Inc RXO | $20.00 | $3.48 | −83% |
| Werner Enterprises, Inc WERN | $37.85 | $8.24 | −78% |
| Dazhong Transportation (Group) Co 600611 | ¥4.43 | ¥1.20 | −73% |
| Mullen Group MTL | C$26.50 | C$19.35 | −27% |
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