Walmart Inc. (WMT) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · US · Market cap $906B · ISIN US9311421039
What is Walmart Inc. really worth?
Walmart Inc.
WMT · US
A solid business, but trading 122% above our fair value of $47.80.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 30, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 6 days ago
Share price −4.2% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($72.21). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide ($27.51 to $72.21). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $37.56 – $134.20 · fair‑value band $27.51 – $72.21 · the $106.09 price screens above the $47.80 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
Analysis
Walmart Inc. (WMT) currently trades at $106.09, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $47.80, implying the stock looks roughly 121.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $50.80 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the $106.09 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $8.39, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Walmart Inc. generated revenue of $725B at a net margin of 3.1%. Revenue grew 7.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 24.1%. Net debt stands at $56.4B. Fundamentals as of Aug 30, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $27.51 (bear case) to $72.21 (bull case); at $106.09, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −28% fair-value upside, at −55%, WMT screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2026 figures, and about 7 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $1.14 per share, which is 2.4 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($50.80) versus Asset-Based ($8.39). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (78).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 30, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 61 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 50
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Walmart Inc. engages in the operation of retail and wholesale stores and clubs, ecommerce websites, and mobile applications worldwide. The company operates through three segments: Walmart U.S., Walmart International, and Sam's Club U.S.
Full company description
Walmart Inc. engages in the operation of retail and wholesale stores and clubs, ecommerce websites, and mobile applications worldwide. The company operates through three segments: Walmart U.S., Walmart International, and Sam's Club U.S. It operates supercenters, supermarkets, warehouse clubs, cash and carry stores, and discount stores under Walmart and Walmart Neighborhood Market brands; membership-only warehouse clubs; and ecommerce websites, such as walmart.com.mx, walmart.ca, flipkart.com, PhonePe and other sites. It offers grocery items, including dry grocery, snacks, dairy, meat, produce, deli and bakery, frozen foods, alcoholic and nonalcoholic beverages, as well as consumables, such as health and beauty aids, pet supplies, household chemicals, paper goods, and baby products; and fuel and other categories. In addition, it is involved in the provision of health and wellness products covering pharmacy, optical and hearing services, over-the-counter drugs, and protein and nutrition products; and home, hardlines, and seasonal items, including home improvement, outdoor living, gardening, furniture, apparel, jewelry, tools and power equipment, housewares, toys, and mattresses. Further, the company offers consumer electronics and accessories, software, video games, office supplies, appliances, and third-party gift cards. Additionally, it operates digital payment platforms; offers financial services and related products, including money transfers, bill payments, money orders, check cashing, prepaid access, co-branded credit cards, installment lending, and earned wage access; and markets lines of merchandise under private and licensed brands. The company was formerly known as Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. and changed its name to Walmart Inc. in February 2018. Walmart Inc. was founded in 1945 and is based in Bentonville, Arkansas.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Walmart Inc. reported revenue of $713B in FY2026 versus $573B in FY2022, a compound +5.6%/yr. Reported net income was $21.9B in FY2026, compounding +12.5%/yr from FY2022.
of which total revenue +3.8 % · buybacks/dilution +1.9 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
WMT screens 122% overvalued. Compare with Costco Wholesale Corporation →
Peer Group
Discount Stores · 24 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Discount Stores median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Discount Stores stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 30, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Costco Wholesale Corporation COST | $934.66 | $383.51 | −59% |
| Target Corporation TGT | $163.18 | $116.90 | −28% |
| Dollarama Inc DOL | C$192.85 | C$92.38 | −52% |
| Avenue Supermarts Limited DMART | ₹3,827 | ₹921.40 | −76% |
| Dollar General Corporation DG | $120.08 | $116.55 | −3% |
| Dollar Tree, Inc DLTR | $128.26 | $125.92 | −2% |
| 540376 540376 | ₹4,054 | ₹1,542 | −62% |
| BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings BJ | $93.19 | $80.26 | −14% |
| Pepco Group PCO | 43.20 PLN | 54.81 PLN | +27% |
| PriceSmart, Inc PSMT | $173.72 | $98.60 | −43% |
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