Costco Wholesale Corp (COST) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · US · Market cap $406B · ISIN US22160K1051
What is Costco Wholesale Corp really worth?
Costco Wholesale Corp
COST · US
A solid business, but trading 141% above our fair value of $383.51.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 29, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 6 days ago
Share price −2.4% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($479.39). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (67/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($260.26 to $479.39) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $359.45 – $1,094 · fair‑value band $260.26 – $479.39 · the $925.41 price screens above the $383.51 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.
Analysis
Costco Wholesale Corp (COST) currently trades at $925.41, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $383.51, implying the stock looks roughly 141.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $422.85 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the $925.41 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $44.06, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Costco Wholesale Corp generated revenue of $294B at a net margin of 3.0%. Revenue grew 21.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 29.2%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $6.0B. Fundamentals as of Aug 29, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $260.26 (bear case) to $479.39 (bull case); at $925.41, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −28% fair-value upside, at −59%, COST screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 12 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $14.47 per share, which is 3.8 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($422.85) versus Asset-Based ($44.06). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (78).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 29, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 65 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 48
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Costco Wholesale Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the operation of membership warehouses in the United States, Puerto Rico, Canada, Mexico, Japan, the United Kingdom, Korea, Australia, Taiwan, China, Spain, France, Iceland, New Zealand, and Sweden.
Full company description
Costco Wholesale Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the operation of membership warehouses in the United States, Puerto Rico, Canada, Mexico, Japan, the United Kingdom, Korea, Australia, Taiwan, China, Spain, France, Iceland, New Zealand, and Sweden. It offers merchandise, including sundries, dry groceries, candies, coolers, freezers, deli, liquor, and tobacco; non-food merchandise comprising appliances, small electronics, health and beauty aids, hardware, lawn and garden, sporting goods, tires, toys and seasonal, automotive, stamps, tickets, apparel, furniture, domestics, housewares, special order kiosks, and jewelry; and fresh food, such as meat, produce, service deli, and bakery products. The company is also involved in warehouse ancillary operations, which include gasoline, pharmacies, optical, food courts, hearing-aid centers, and tire installation centers. In addition, it engages in e-commerce, business centers, travel, and other businesses. The company was formerly known as Costco Companies, Inc. and changed its name to Costco Wholesale Corporation in August 1999. Costco Wholesale Corporation was founded in 1976 and is based in Issaquah, Washington.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Costco Wholesale Corp reported revenue of $275B in FY2025 versus $196B in FY2021, a compound +8.9%/yr. Reported net income was $8.1B in FY2025, compounding +12.8%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +9.3 % · buybacks/dilution −0.1 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
COST screens 141% overvalued. Compare with Walmart Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Costco's August Sales Rise 9.9% as Digital Growth Stays Strong
- Trump's DOJ Expands Beef Price Probe to Walmart, Costco, Amazon and 5 Other Retail Giants — Calls it a 'Critical Concern'
Peer Group
Discount Stores · 24 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Discount Stores median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Discount Stores stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 29, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Walmart Inc WMT | $103.09 | $47.80 | −54% |
| Target Corporation TGT | $163.18 | $116.90 | −28% |
| Dollarama Inc DOL | C$192.85 | C$92.38 | −52% |
| Avenue Supermarts Limited DMART | ₹3,827 | ₹921.40 | −76% |
| Dollar General Corporation DG | $120.08 | $116.55 | −3% |
| Dollar Tree, Inc DLTR | $128.26 | $125.92 | −2% |
| 540376 540376 | ₹4,054 | ₹1,542 | −62% |
| BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings BJ | $93.19 | $80.26 | −14% |
| Pepco Group PCO | 43.20 PLN | 54.81 PLN | +27% |
| PriceSmart, Inc PSMT | $173.72 | $98.60 | −43% |
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