Target Corporation (TGT) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · US · Market cap $63.7B · ISIN US87612E1064
What is Target Corporation really worth?
Target Corporation
TGT · US
A solid business, but trading 40% above our fair value of $116.90.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 30, 2026
From 23 valuation models · updated 6 days ago
Share price +10.7% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The model range is unusually wide ($65.90 to $183.86). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $82.06 – $230.47 · fair‑value band $65.90 – $183.86 · the $164.01 price screens above the $116.90 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
Analysis
Target Corporation (TGT) currently trades at $164.01, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $116.90, implying the stock looks roughly 40.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $141.43 per share, and 4 of the 23 models we run sit above the $164.01 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $23.85, and 19 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Target Corporation generated revenue of $106B at a net margin of 3.2%. Revenue grew 6.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 22.0%. Net debt stands at $14.8B. Fundamentals as of Aug 30, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $65.90 (bear case) to $183.86 (bull case); at $164.01, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 100% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −43% fair-value upside, at −29%, TGT screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2026 figures, and about 7 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $1.79 per share, which is 1.5 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 23 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($141.43) versus Asset-Based ($23.85). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (79).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 30, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 58 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 86
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Target Corporation operates as a general merchandise retailer in the United States. It offers apparel for women, men, young adults, kids, toddlers, and babies, as well as jewelry, accessories, and shoes; and beauty products, such as skin and bath care, cosmetics, hair care, oral care, deodorant, and shaving products.
Full company description
Target Corporation operates as a general merchandise retailer in the United States. It offers apparel for women, men, young adults, kids, toddlers, and babies, as well as jewelry, accessories, and shoes; and beauty products, such as skin and bath care, cosmetics, hair care, oral care, deodorant, and shaving products. The company also provides food and beverage products comprising dry and perishable grocery, including snacks, candy, beverages, deli, bakery, meat, produce, and food service; electronics which includes video games and consoles, toys, sporting goods, entertainment, and luggage; bed and bath, home décor, school/office supplies, storage, small appliances, kitchenware, greeting cards, party supplies, furniture, lighting, home improvement, and seasonal merchandise; and household essentials, such as household cleaning, paper products, over-the-counter healthcare, vitamins and supplements, baby gear, and pet supplies. In addition, it sells merchandise through periodic design and creative partnerships, and shop-in-shop experience; and in-store amenities. The company sells its products through its stores; and digital channels, including Target.com. Target Corporation was incorporated in 1902 and is headquartered in Minneapolis, Minnesota.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Target Corporation reported revenue of $105B in FY2026 versus $106B in FY2022, a compound −0.3%/yr. Reported net income was $3.7B in FY2026, compounding −14.5%/yr from FY2022.
of which total revenue +4.7 % · buybacks/dilution +3.3 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
TGT screens 40% overvalued. Compare with Walmart Inc →
Peer Group
Discount Stores · 24 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Discount Stores median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Discount Stores stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 30, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Walmart Inc WMT | $103.09 | $47.80 | −54% |
| Costco Wholesale Corporation COST | $934.66 | $383.51 | −59% |
| Dollarama Inc DOL | C$192.85 | C$92.38 | −52% |
| Avenue Supermarts Limited DMART | ₹3,827 | ₹921.40 | −76% |
| Dollar General Corporation DG | $120.08 | $116.55 | −3% |
| Dollar Tree, Inc DLTR | $128.26 | $125.92 | −2% |
| 540376 540376 | ₹4,054 | ₹1,542 | −62% |
| BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings BJ | $93.19 | $80.26 | −14% |
| Pepco Group PCO | 43.20 PLN | 54.81 PLN | +27% |
| PriceSmart, Inc PSMT | $173.72 | $98.60 | −43% |
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