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PriceSmart Inc (PSMT) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Defensive · US · Market cap $5.8B · ISIN US7415111092

What is PriceSmart Inc really worth?

PI PriceSmart Inc logo PriceSmart Inc PSMT · US
Price$173.72
Fair Value$98.60
Upside−43.2%
Quality60/100

A solid business, but trading 76% above our fair value of $98.60.

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Strengths

✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +9.6 %/yr)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow

Risks

!Thin margins · 2.8% net margin
!Trails peers (5/15)
!Narrow moat 43/100
!Weak on dividend: 15 out of 100

For context

·0.77% dividend yield
Evidence: High Range $62.99 – $123.25

Fair value as of: Sep 5, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated today

Share price −10.2% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($123.25). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
  • A fairly wide model range ($62.99 to $123.25) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$197.90 $54.35 Fair Value $98.60 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $54.35 – $197.90 · fair‑value band $62.99 – $123.25 · the $173.72 price screens above the $98.60 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

PriceSmart Inc (PSMT) currently trades at $173.72, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $98.60, implying the stock looks roughly 76.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $98.60 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the $173.72 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $27.08, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, PriceSmart Inc generated revenue of $5.5B at a net margin of 2.8%. Revenue grew 9.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 12.5%. Net debt stands at $77.0M. Fundamentals as of Sep 5, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $62.99 (bear case) to $123.25 (bull case); at $173.72, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 76% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −28% fair-value upside, at −43%, PSMT screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 12 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $3.87 per share, which is 3.9 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $44.08 $74.92 $126.28 78
Growth DCF $43.71 $71.73 $116.62 77
Owner Earnings $32.93 $55.33 $92.63 74
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $44.08 $74.92 $126.28 78
Owner Earnings $32.93 $55.33 $92.63 74
5Y Revenue Exit $62.57 $113.08 $182.50 71
5Y EBITDA Exit $79.59 $148.03 $234.68 73
5Y P/E Exit $62.18 $112.28 $169.72 69
10Y Revenue Exit $53.37 $98.50 $168.94 64
10Y EBITDA Exit $66.66 $123.48 $211.47 66
10Y P/E Exit $55.39 $97.92 $158.52 62
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $31.93 $146.27 $200.74 64
Lynch FV $38.39 $54.84 $71.29 61
PEG = 1.0 $38.39 $54.84 $71.29 57
EPV $55.66 $63.91 $71.04 74
Multiples
P/E Multiple $73.95 $98.60 $123.25 63
P/S Multiple $59.86 $79.82 $99.77 58
P/B Multiple $59.86 $79.82 $99.77 55
EV/EBIT $100.92 $133.44 $165.95 66
EV/EBITDA $105.82 $139.97 $174.12 67
EV/Revenue $73.00 $102.83 $132.67 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $20.21 $27.08 $40.42 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $43.71 $71.73 $116.62 77
Rev-Margin DCF $62.57 $111.27 $173.80 71
Economic Profit
Residual Income $36.49 $41.99 $77.00 73
ROIC Compounder $61.18 $80.71 $106.64 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $61.70 $88.14 $114.58 67

Widest divergence: Multiples ($98.60) versus Asset-Based ($27.08). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (78).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 34.3
P/S ratio 0.94 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) $5.07 price ÷ EPS = P/E 34.3
Dividend yield 0.8% payout 26.2%
Net margin 2.7% FY2025
Return on equity 12.5% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 10.0% avg 5y
Operating margin 5.1% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) $5.5B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +9.7% 3y avg +9.0%
EPS growth (YoY) +11.6%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow $103M FY2025
Net debt $77.0M FY2025 · ≈ 0.7 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 5, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 60/100

Of which business quality 61 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 76

Profitability 58
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 37
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 37
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 82
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 72
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 74
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 70
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 87
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 84
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

PriceSmart, Inc. owns and operates U.S.-style membership shopping warehouse clubs in the United States, Central America, the Caribbean, and Colombia.

Full company description

PriceSmart, Inc. owns and operates U.S.-style membership shopping warehouse clubs in the United States, Central America, the Caribbean, and Colombia. The company provides basic and private label merchandise and consumable and non-consumable products under the Member's Selection brand, including groceries, cleaning supplies, health and beauty aids, meat, produce, deli, seafood, and poultry. It also offers electronics, large and small appliances, automotive, hardware, sporting goods, seasonal products, clothing, domestic, and home furnishing products. In addition, the company offers food and bakery services, as well as health services, such as optical, audiology, and pharmacy. Further, it operates an e-commerce platform, as well as offers curbside pickup and delivery services. PriceSmart, Inc. was incorporated in 1994 and is headquartered in San Diego, California.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

PriceSmart Inc reported revenue of $5.3B in FY2025 versus $3.6B in FY2021, a compound +9.8%/yr. Reported net income was $145M in FY2025, compounding +10.6%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 80/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$5.3B
Latest YoY
+7.2%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+9.0%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+9.6%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (32Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+17.2%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+14.3% (13.5 + 0.8)
Revenue +9.8%/yr
FY21 $3.6B
FY22 $4.1B
FY23 $4.4B
FY24 $4.9B
FY25 $5.3B
Net income +10.6%/yr
FY21 $96.7M
FY22 $103M
FY23 $108M
FY24 $137M
FY25 $145M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +4.1 % p.a.
Revenue per share +6.4 %

of which total revenue +6.6 % · buybacks/dilution −0.2 %

EBIT margin −1.5 %
Tax rate +0.2 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) −0.9 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

PSMT screens 76% overvalued. Compare with Walmart Inc →

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PriceSmart Inc · Fair Value
$98.60 −76%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "PriceSmart Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/PSMT

Recent news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Discount Stores · 24 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 60 · Below median
Fair Value upside −43% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 12% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets 7% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 4% · Below median
Revenue growth 13% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.8% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.12× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Discount Stores median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 34.3× · Pricier than median
P/B 4.68× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 1.03× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 56.5× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 16.0× · Pricier than 75% of peers
PEG 1.83× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 15
FUTURE63 · sector 36
PAST49 · sector 81
HEALTH94 · sector 86
DIVIDEND15 · sector 51

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 45/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Discount Stores stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 5, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Walmart Inc WMT $103.09 $47.80 −54%
Costco Wholesale Corporation COST $934.66 $383.51 −59%
Target Corporation TGT $163.18 $116.90 −28%
Dollarama Inc DOL C$192.85 C$92.38 −52%
Avenue Supermarts Limited DMART ₹3,827 ₹921.40 −76%
Dollar General Corporation DG $120.08 $116.55 −3%
Dollar Tree, Inc DLTR $128.26 $125.92 −2%
540376 540376 ₹4,054 ₹1,542 −62%
BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings BJ $93.19 $80.26 −14%
Pepco Group PCO 43.20 PLN 54.81 PLN +27%

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Frequently asked questions

Is PriceSmart Inc (PSMT) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $98.60 versus a price of $173.72, about −43% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of PSMT?
Our model-based fair value for PriceSmart Inc is $98.60 (as of Sep 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $173.72.
What is the quality score of PSMT?
PriceSmart Inc has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of PriceSmart Inc (PSMT)?
PriceSmart Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $5.5B (latest available figure, as of Sep 5, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of PSMT?
The net profit margin of PriceSmart Inc is about 2.8%, meaning it keeps roughly 2.8% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does PriceSmart Inc pay a dividend?
PriceSmart Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.77% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 5, 2026).
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