Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · US · Market cap $23.2B · ISIN US2567461080
What is Dollar Tree Inc really worth?
Dollar Tree Inc
DLTR · US
A strong business, currently priced close to our fair value of $125.92.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 31, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 5 days ago
Share price +0.3% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- A fairly wide model range ($85.39 to $162.48) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 31, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $61.21 – $174.08 · fair‑value band $85.39 – $162.48 · the $131.04 price screens above the $125.92 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 31, 2026.
Analysis
Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR) currently trades at $131.04, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $125.92, implying the stock looks roughly 4.1% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 76/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $140.44 per share, and 10 of the 26 models we run sit above the $131.04 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $13.09, and 16 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Dollar Tree Inc generated revenue of $19.7B at a net margin of 6.5%. Revenue grew 7.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 34.0%. Net debt stands at $3.9B. Fundamentals as of Aug 31, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $85.39 (bear case) to $162.48 (bull case); at $131.04, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 55% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −43% fair-value upside, at −4%, DLTR screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2026 figures, and about 7 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $3.70 per share, which is 2.9 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($140.44) versus Asset-Based ($13.09). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (75).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 31, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 74 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 67
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Dollar Tree, Inc. operates retail discount stores under the Dollar Tree and Dollar Tree Canada brands in the United States and Canada.
Full company description
Dollar Tree, Inc. operates retail discount stores under the Dollar Tree and Dollar Tree Canada brands in the United States and Canada. The company offers consumable merchandise comprising everyday consumables, such as household paper and chemicals, food, candy, health, personal care products, and frozen and refrigerated food; variety merchandise consisting of toys, durable housewares, gifts, stationery, party goods, greeting cards, softlines, arts and crafts supplies, and other items; and seasonal goods, including Christmas, Easter, Halloween, and Valentine's Day merchandise. The company was founded in 1986 and is based in Chesapeake, Virginia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Dollar Tree Inc reported revenue of $19.4B in FY2026 versus $26.3B in FY2022, a compound −7.3%/yr. Reported net income was $1.3B in FY2026, compounding −0.9%/yr from FY2022.
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Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Dollar Tree (DLTR) Stock Could Be 29% Undervalued After Raised Outlook
- Dollar General and Dollar Tree send message to Kroger and Publix
- Dollar Tree (DLTR) Q2 2027 Earnings Call Transcript
- Dollar Tree Says Higher Fuel Prices Are Becoming a ‘Very, Very Meaningful’ Headwind
Peer Group
Discount Stores · 24 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Discount Stores median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Discount Stores stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 31, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Walmart Inc WMT | $103.09 | $47.80 | −54% |
| Costco Wholesale Corporation COST | $934.66 | $383.51 | −59% |
| Target Corporation TGT | $163.18 | $116.90 | −28% |
| Dollarama Inc DOL | C$192.85 | C$92.38 | −52% |
| Avenue Supermarts Limited DMART | ₹3,827 | ₹921.40 | −76% |
| Dollar General Corporation DG | $120.08 | $116.55 | −3% |
| 540376 540376 | ₹4,054 | ₹1,542 | −62% |
| BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings BJ | $93.19 | $80.26 | −14% |
| Pepco Group PCO | 43.20 PLN | 54.81 PLN | +27% |
| PriceSmart, Inc PSMT | $173.72 | $98.60 | −43% |
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