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STOCK COMPARISON

Costco Wholesale vs Walmart: Fair Value & Quality

Both stocks run through our valuation models. Here is how Costco Wholesale (COST) and Walmart (WMT) compare, as of Sep 5, 2026.

As of Sep 5, 2026, Fair Value Calculator sees Walmart as the less overvalued of the two: Costco Wholesale trades at $925 versus a fair value of $384 (-59%), while Walmart trades at $106 versus $47.80 (-55%).
Costco Wholesale
COST · USD · Consumer Staples
-59%
upside to fair value
overvalued
Price$925
Fair Value$384
Quality67/100
Walmart
WMT · USD · Consumer Staples
-55%
upside to fair value
overvalued
Price$106
Fair Value$47.80
Quality63/100
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Head-to-head numbers

Green value = the better side for that row (for valuation multiples: lower = cheaper).

Costco WholesaleWalmart
Valuation
46.1×P/E (TTM)39.5×
1.38×P/S (TTM)1.25×
13.93×P/B9.10×
28.9×EV/EBITDA20.8×
4.47×PEG4.30×
−58.6%Fair value upside−54.9%
0.6%Dividend yield0.9%
$5.37Dividend per share$0.95
Profitability
4%Operating margin4%
1.15×EBIT margin trend (5Y)1.05×
29%Return on equity24%
9%Return on assets7%
Growth
22%Revenue growth (YoY)7%
6.6%Avg. growth/yr (3Y)5.3%
10.5%Avg. growth/yr (5Y)5.0%
+15.7%Value creation/yr+12.7%
Balance & size
67.4×Interest coverage (EBIT/interest)10.7×
0.20×Debt / equity0.35×
$406BMarket cap$906B
healthyGrowth qualityhealthy

Even match: 7 to 7 metric wins.

Dash = not meaningfully computable, for example with negative equity.

Quality in detail

The quality score, broken down into the same factor families as on the stock page, 0 to 100 per family.

Costco Wholesaleof which business quality 65 · market factors 48 Walmartof which business quality 61 · market factors 50
ProfitabilityMargins and returns on capital today
73
71
Quality GrowthAre margins and returns improving?
42
38
CashflowEarnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
43
37
Fin. StrengthBalance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
80
62
InvestmentDisciplined investing over empire-building
69
78
Low VolatilityCalm price path (market factor)
80
84
MomentumPrice trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
36
35
52W MomentumDistance to the 52-week high (market factor)
32
37
Net IssuanceBuybacks instead of dilution
82
89

What the models say

How far the median fair value (base case) per model family sits from the current price, in percent. The amount in the currency of the trading venue is shown underneath.

above the price, more than 15% above close to the price, 85% to 115% of the price below the price, more than 15% below

Model familyCostco WholesalePrice $925WalmartPrice $106
DCF Models-54%below the price$424-57%below the price$45.47
Earnings-Based-78%below the price$202-77%below the price$23.95
Dividend Discount-90%below the price$94.03n/a
Multiples-62%below the price$353-51%below the price$52.27
Asset-Based-95%below the price$44.06-92%below the price$8.39
Growth DCF-57%below the price$401-64%below the price$38.48
Economic Profit-76%below the price$224-71%below the price$30.59
Growth Earnings-66%below the price$315-52%below the price$50.80
Minimum-95%below the price$44.06-92%below the price$8.39
Maximum-54%below the price$424-51%below the price$52.27
Median-71%below the price$269-64%below the price$38.48
Geometric mean-77%below the price$208-71%below the price$31.16

Minimum, maximum, median and geometric mean refer to the family values in this table. Geometric because deviations are ratios: half the price and twice the price average to 100%, not 125%.

Costco Wholesale: 26 of 26 models see the stock below the current price.

Walmart: 24 of 24 models see the stock below the current price.

Scenario ranges

From our cautious bear case to the optimistic bull case. The white tick is the current price: left of fair value means room to run.

Costco Wholesale
Bear $260Fair Value $384Bull $479
$925 = current price (white tick)
Walmart
Bear $27.51Fair Value $47.80Bull $72.21
$106 = current price (white tick)

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Ranked within their sector

Where each stock sits within its sector peer group. Band = middle 50% of peers, tick = median, dot = this stock.

Costco Wholesale · Consumer Staples

Quality score67 · Top 25%
Fair value upside-59% · bottom 25%

Walmart · Consumer Staples

Quality score63 · above median
Fair value upside-55% · bottom 25%

Bottom line

As of Sep 5, 2026, Fair Value Calculator sees Walmart as the less overvalued of the two: Costco Wholesale trades at $925 versus a fair value of $384 (-59%), while Walmart trades at $106 versus $47.80 (-55%).

Costco Wholesale has the higher quality score (67/100).

See the full analysis →
Costco Wholesale · Walmart

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A model-based valuation snapshot from 26 models. Values change with price and fundamentals; the date shown above applies.