Varun Beverages Ltd (VBL) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · IN · Market cap ₹1.7T (≈ $18.5B) · ISIN INE200M01021
What is Varun Beverages Ltd really worth?
A solid business, but trading 120% above our fair value of ₹187.49.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 22, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 14 days ago
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (₹234.54). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (₹90.57 to ₹234.54) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ₹77.14 – ₹669.56 · fair‑value band ₹90.57 – ₹234.54 · the ₹412.00 price screens above the ₹187.49 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 22, 2026.
Analysis
Varun Beverages Ltd (VBL) currently trades at ₹412.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹187.49, implying the stock looks roughly 119.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ₹262.21 per share, and 1 of the 26 models we run sit above the ₹412.00 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ₹25.80, and 25 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Varun Beverages Ltd generated revenue of ₹227B at a net margin of 14.0%. Revenue grew 18.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 16.8%. Net debt stands at ₹2.4B. Fundamentals as of Aug 22, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ₹90.57 (bear case) to ₹234.54 (bull case); at ₹412.00, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −13% fair-value upside, at −54%, VBL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly ₹5.70 per share, which is 3.0 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (₹262.21) versus Dividend Discount (₹25.80). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (75).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 22, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 52 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 42
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Varun Beverages Limited, together with its subsidiaries, operates as the franchisee of carbonated soft drinks (CSDs) and non-carbonated beverages (NCBs) sold under trademarks owned by PepsiCo.
Full company description
Varun Beverages Limited, together with its subsidiaries, operates as the franchisee of carbonated soft drinks (CSDs) and non-carbonated beverages (NCBs) sold under trademarks owned by PepsiCo. It is involved in the manufacture, bottling, distribution, and sale of a range of CSDs under the Pepsi, Pepsi Black, Mountain Dew, Mirinda, and 7UP brands; energy drinks under the Sting and Sting Blue brands; club sodas under the Evervess and Dukes brands; and carbonated juice-based drinks under the 7UP Nimbooz Masala Soda brand. The company also produces and distributes NCBs comprising fruit pulp/juice-based drinks under the Tropicana 100%, Tropicana Delight, Slice, and 7UP Nimbooz brands; ice-tea in various flavors under the Lipton brand; sports drinks in various flavors under the Gatorade brand; packaged drinking water under the Aquafina and Aquavess brands; and value-added dairy-based beverages under the Cream Bell brand. It sells its products to retail outlets directly and through distributors in India, as well as territories of Nepal, Sri Lanka, Morocco, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Congo, Dubai, South Africa, Eswatini, Lesotho, Namibia, Botswana, and Mozambique. The company was incorporated in 1995 and is based in Gurugram, India.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Varun Beverages Ltd reported revenue of ₹222B in FY2025 versus ₹89.6B in FY2021, a compound +25.5%/yr. Reported net income was ₹30.4B in FY2025, compounding +44.6%/yr from FY2021.
VBL screens 120% overvalued. Compare with The Coca-Cola Company →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Varun Beverages Ltd (NSE:VBL) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Revenue Growth and ...
- Varun Beverages, PepsiCo revise licensing deal
- Varun Beverages Ltd (NSE:VBL) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Highlights: Robust Revenue and EBITDA ...
- Varun Beverages Leads 3 High-Insider Growth Companies
Peer Group
Beverages - Non-Alcoholic · 87 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Beverages - Non-Alcoholic median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Beverages - Non-Alcoholic stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 22, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Coca-Cola Company KO | $89.06 | $36.57 | −59% |
| PepsiCo, Inc PEP | $139.72 | $106.91 | −23% |
| Monster Beverage Corporation MNST | $46.70 | $35.82 | −23% |
| Nongfu Spring Co 9633 | HK$42.54 | HK$30.90 | −27% |
| Coca-Cola Europacific Partners PLC CCEP | €92.10 | €70.86 | −23% |
| Keurig Dr Pepper Inc KDP | $32.18 | $30.99 | −4% |
| Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A. KOF | $112.58 | $108.50 | −4% |
| Coca-Cola HBC AG EEE | €53.10 | €46.77 | −12% |
| Eastroc Beverage (Group) Co 605499 | ¥123.07 | ¥107.57 | −13% |
| MIXUE Group 2097 | HK$232.60 | HK$307.46 | +32% |
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