Keurig Dr Pepper Inc (KDP) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · US · Market cap $42.5B · ISIN US49271V1008
What is Keurig Dr Pepper Inc really worth?
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc
KDP · US
A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value of $30.99.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Sep 1, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 4 days ago
Share price +5.4% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- A fairly wide model range ($16.23 to $40.11) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $24.70 – $35.90 · fair‑value band $16.23 – $40.11 · the $32.59 price screens above the $30.99 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.
Analysis
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc (KDP) currently trades at $32.59, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $30.99, implying the stock looks roughly 5.2% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $40.34 per share, and 9 of the 26 models we run sit above the $32.59 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $12.57, and 17 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Keurig Dr Pepper Inc generated revenue of $16.9B at a net margin of 10.8%. Revenue grew 9.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.3%. Net debt stands at $15.1B. Fundamentals as of Sep 1, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $16.23 (bear case) to $40.11 (bull case); at $32.59, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 32% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at −5%, KDP screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $0.2910 per share, which is 0.9 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($40.34) versus Asset-Based ($12.57). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 1, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 67
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. owns, manufactures, and distributors beverages and single serve brewing systems in the United States and internationally. The company operates through three segments: U.S. Refreshment Beverages, U.S. Coffee, and International.
Full company description
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. owns, manufactures, and distributors beverages and single serve brewing systems in the United States and internationally. The company operates through three segments: U.S. Refreshment Beverages, U.S. Coffee, and International. It manufactures and distributes branded concentrates, syrup, and finished beverages, as well as sales of owned brands and third-party brands; tea, cocoa, and other products; and offers finished goods relating to K-Cup pods, single serve brewers, specialty coffee, and ready to drink coffee products. The company offers its products under the Dr Pepper, Canada Dry, Mott's, A&W, Peñafiel, GHOST, Snapple, 7UP, Green Mountain Coffee Roasters, Clamato, Core Hydration, The Original Donut Shop, Sunkist soda, Squirt, C4 Energy, Hawaiian Punch, Electrolit, Bloom, Bai, Evian, Yoo-Hoo, Vita Coco, Big Red, RC Cola, Crush, McCafé, Tim Hortons, Van Houtte, Celestial Seasonings, Bigelow, Starbucks, Dunkin', Folgers, Peet's, 7up Energy, and Swiss Miss brands, as well as other partner and private label brands. It markets and sells its products to supermarkets, mass merchandisers, club stores, e-commerce retailers, office superstores, vending machines, fountains, grocery and drug stores, convenience stores, and other small outlets; and directly to consumers through Keurig.com website. Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. was founded in 1981 and is headquartered in Frisco, Texas.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc reported revenue of $16.6B in FY2025 versus $12.7B in FY2021, a compound +7.0%/yr. Reported net income was $2.1B in FY2025, compounding −0.8%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +10.6 % · buybacks/dilution −4.0 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Is Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) Undervalued Following Its AI Driven Fansville Push?
- Is Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) Already Overvalued After A 16% Gain?
- Keurig Dr Pepper Director Aaron Alt Buys 7,862 Shares for $250,000 -- Should Investors Buy Too?
- Keurig Dr Pepper to Participate in Barclays Global Consumer Staples Conference
Peer Group
Beverages - Non-Alcoholic · 87 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Beverages - Non-Alcoholic median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Beverages - Non-Alcoholic stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 1, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Coca-Cola Company KO | $89.06 | $36.57 | −59% |
| PepsiCo, Inc PEP | $139.72 | $106.91 | −23% |
| Monster Beverage Corporation MNST | $46.70 | $35.82 | −23% |
| Nongfu Spring Co 9633 | HK$42.54 | HK$30.90 | −27% |
| Coca-Cola Europacific Partners PLC CCEP | €92.10 | €70.86 | −23% |
| Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A. KOF | $112.58 | $108.50 | −4% |
| Coca-Cola HBC AG EEE | €53.10 | €46.77 | −12% |
| Varun Beverages Limited VBL | ₹431.00 | ₹187.49 | −56% |
| Eastroc Beverage (Group) Co 605499 | ¥123.07 | ¥107.57 | −13% |
| MIXUE Group 2097 | HK$232.60 | HK$307.46 | +32% |
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