Nongfu Spring Co (9633) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · HK · Market cap HK$461B
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated today
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$30.72 to HK$30.90 (+0.6%) since Jul 15, 2026. Share price +2.7% over the past month.
A strong business, but screening 28% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 77/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- A fairly wide model range (HK$23.33 to HK$50.51) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$23.21 – HK$54.64 · fair‑value band HK$23.33 – HK$50.51 · the HK$42.70 price screens above the HK$30.90 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Nongfu Spring Co (9633) currently trades at HK$42.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$30.90, implying the stock looks roughly 27.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 77/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Nongfu Spring Co generated revenue of HK$52.6B at a net margin of 30.2%. Revenue grew 30.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 44.2%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$6.7B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$23.33 (bear case) to HK$50.51 (bull case); at HK$42.70, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -16% fair-value upside, at -28%, 9633 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$36.69) versus Asset-Based (HK$2.35). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 76 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 45
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Nongfu Spring Co., Ltd. produces and sells packaged drinking water and beverage products primarily in Mainland China. It operates through five segments: Water Products, Ready-To-Drink Tea Products, Functional Drinks Products, Juice Beverage Products, and Other Products.
Full company description
Nongfu Spring Co., Ltd. produces and sells packaged drinking water and beverage products primarily in Mainland China. It operates through five segments: Water Products, Ready-To-Drink Tea Products, Functional Drinks Products, Juice Beverage Products, and Other Products. The company offers edible ice; ready-to-drink tea beverages; functional drink products; fruit juice products; and other products, including beverage products, such as soda water beverage, coffee beverage, and plant-based beverages, as well as agricultural products comprising fresh fruits. It also provides supply chain management services, as well as engages in the beverage and IT research and development; and refined tea processing activities. The company was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Hangzhou, China. Nongfu Spring Co., Ltd. is a subsidiary of Yangshengtang Co., Ltd.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Nongfu Spring Co reported revenue of HK$52.6B in FY2025 versus HK$29.7B in FY2021, a compound +15.3%/yr. Reported net income was HK$15.9B in FY2025, compounding +22.0%/yr from FY2021.
9633 screens 28% overvalued. Compare with The Coca-Cola Company →
Peer Group
Beverages - Non-Alcoholic · 90 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Beverages - Non-Alcoholic median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 45/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Beverages - Non-Alcoholic stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Coca-Cola Company KO | $86.71 | $36.57 | -58% |
| PepsiCo, Inc PEP | $138.70 | $106.91 | -23% |
| Monster Beverage Corporation MNST | $45.98 | $35.82 | -22% |
| Coca-Cola Europacific Partners PLC CCEP | €92.10 | €70.86 | -23% |
| Keurig Dr Pepper Inc KDP | $29.56 | $30.99 | +5% |
| Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A. KOFUBL | 180.76 MXN | 159.53 MXN | -12% |
| Coca-Cola HBC AG EEE | €54.20 | €46.77 | -14% |
| Arca Continental, S.A. AC | 198.23 MXN | 242.13 MXN | +22% |
| Varun Beverages Limited VBL | ₹438.45 | ₹187.49 | -57% |
| Eastroc Beverage (Group) Co 605499 | ¥127.90 | ¥107.57 | -16% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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