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Nongfu Spring Co Ltd (9633) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Defensive · HK · Market cap HK$461B (≈ $58.8B) · ISIN CNE100004272

What is Nongfu Spring Co Ltd really worth?

NS Nongfu Spring Co Ltd 9633 · HK
PriceHK$42.40
Fair ValueHK$30.90
Upside−27.1%
Quality77/100

A strong business, but trading 37% above our fair value of HK$30.90.

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Strengths

✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +18.1 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 30.2% net margin
✓generates free cash flow
✓Wide moat 91/100

Risks

!Mixed vs. peers (6/14)

For context

·2.33% dividend yield
Evidence: High Range HK$23.33 – HK$50.51

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 22 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$30.72 to HK$30.90 (+0.6%) since Jul 15, 2026. Share price +0.9% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • A high-quality business (quality 77/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
  • A fairly wide model range (HK$23.33 to HK$50.51) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$54.64 HK$23.21 Fair Value HK$30.90 Apr 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$23.21 – HK$54.64 · fair‑value band HK$23.33 – HK$50.51 · the HK$42.40 price screens above the HK$30.90 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Nongfu Spring Co Ltd (9633) currently trades at HK$42.40, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$30.90, implying the stock looks roughly 37.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 77/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$36.69 per share, and 1 of the 26 models we run sit above the HK$42.40 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at HK$12.73, and 25 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Nongfu Spring Co Ltd generated revenue of HK$52.6B at a net margin of 30.2%. Revenue grew 30.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 44.2%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$6.7B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$23.33 (bear case) to HK$50.51 (bull case); at HK$42.40, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −13% fair-value upside, at −27%, 9633 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF HK$19.91 HK$37.01 HK$81.75 71
Growth DCF HK$19.44 HK$40.02 HK$74.37 70
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$19.74 HK$37.33 HK$60.66 69
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$19.91 HK$37.01 HK$81.75 71
Owner Earnings HK$18.00 HK$36.69 HK$74.27 68
5Y Revenue Exit HK$10.00 HK$15.70 HK$23.35 68
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$19.74 HK$37.33 HK$60.66 69
5Y P/E Exit HK$21.56 HK$41.37 HK$65.56 65
10Y Revenue Exit HK$12.72 HK$19.64 HK$30.40 62
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$19.73 HK$36.57 HK$64.80 62
10Y P/E Exit HK$21.01 HK$39.74 HK$69.31 58
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$9.59 HK$56.20 HK$78.23 61
Lynch FV HK$15.92 HK$22.74 HK$29.56 58
PEG = 1.0 HK$15.92 HK$22.74 HK$29.56 55
EPV HK$13.61 HK$15.84 HK$17.82 69
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$7.12 HK$15.54 HK$26.15 63
DDM Multi-Stage HK$7.12 HK$12.73 HK$16.20 64
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$22.22 HK$29.62 HK$37.03 61
P/S Multiple HK$5.61 HK$7.48 HK$9.34 56
P/B Multiple HK$14.48 HK$19.31 HK$24.13 53
EV/EBIT HK$22.81 HK$30.08 HK$37.35 61
EV/EBITDA HK$20.54 HK$27.06 HK$33.57 63
EV/Revenue HK$5.90 HK$8.00 HK$10.11 50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$1.76 HK$2.35 HK$3.51 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$19.44 HK$40.02 HK$74.37 70
Rev-Margin DCF HK$10.00 HK$15.67 HK$23.57 68
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$10.26 HK$13.50 HK$109.80 63
ROIC Compounder HK$15.36 HK$20.22 HK$26.44 69
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$23.39 HK$33.41 HK$43.43 66

Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$36.69) versus Asset-Based (HK$2.35). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (71).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 25.9 as of Jun 7, 2026
P/S ratio 7.81 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) HK$0.6800 price ÷ EPS = P/E 25.9
Dividend yield 2.3% payout 146%
Net margin 30.2% FY2025
Return on equity 44.2% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 27.2% avg 5y
Operating margin 37.8% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) HK$52.6B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +30.0% 3y avg +16.5%
EPS growth (YoY) +40.1%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow HK$14.1B FY2025
Net cash HK$6.7B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 77/100

Of which business quality 76 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 46

Profitability 89
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 76
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 77
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 89
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 20
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 80
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 37
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 23
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Nongfu Spring Co., Ltd. produces and sells packaged drinking water and beverage products primarily in Mainland China. It operates through five segments: Water Products, Ready-To-Drink Tea Products, Functional Drinks Products, Juice Beverage Products, and Other Products.

Full company description

Nongfu Spring Co., Ltd. produces and sells packaged drinking water and beverage products primarily in Mainland China. It operates through five segments: Water Products, Ready-To-Drink Tea Products, Functional Drinks Products, Juice Beverage Products, and Other Products. The company offers edible ice; ready-to-drink tea beverages; functional drink products; fruit juice products; and other products, including beverage products, such as soda water beverage, coffee beverage, and plant-based beverages, as well as agricultural products comprising fresh fruits. It also provides supply chain management services, as well as engages in the beverage and IT research and development; and refined tea processing activities. The company was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Hangzhou, China. Nongfu Spring Co., Ltd. is a subsidiary of Yangshengtang Co., Ltd.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Nongfu Spring Co Ltd reported revenue of 52.6B CNY in FY2025 versus 29.7B CNY in FY2021, a compound +15.3%/yr. Reported net income was 15.9B CNY in FY2025, compounding +22.0%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$52.6B
Latest YoY
+22.5%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+16.5%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+18.1%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (8Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+14.7%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+26.2% (23.9 + 2.3)
Revenue +15.3%/yr
FY21 29.7B CNY
FY22 33.2B CNY
FY23 42.7B CNY
FY24 42.9B CNY
FY25 52.6B CNY
Net income +22.0%/yr
FY21 7.2B CNY
FY22 8.5B CNY
FY23 12.1B CNY
FY24 12.1B CNY
FY25 15.9B CNY

9633 screens 37% overvalued. Compare with The Coca-Cola Company →

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Nongfu Spring Co Ltd · Fair Value
HK$30.90 −37%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Nongfu Spring Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/9633

Peer Group

Beverages - Non-Alcoholic · 87 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 77 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −27% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 44% · Top 25%
Return on assets 21% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 30% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 38% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 30% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.3% · Below median

Valuation Multiples vs Beverages - Non-Alcoholic median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 25.9× · Pricier than median
P/B 11.68× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 8.77× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 4.2× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 19.8× · Pricier than 75% of peers
PEG 2.27× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 19
FUTURE100 · sector 43
PAST100 · sector 51
HEALTH0 · sector 97
DIVIDEND47 · sector 54

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 45/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Alcohol

Similar stocks

10 more Beverages - Non-Alcoholic stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
The Coca-Cola Company KO $89.06 $36.57 −59%
PepsiCo, Inc PEP $139.72 $106.91 −23%
Monster Beverage Corporation MNST $46.70 $35.82 −23%
Coca-Cola Europacific Partners PLC CCEP €92.10 €70.86 −23%
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc KDP $32.18 $30.99 −4%
Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A. KOF $112.58 $108.50 −4%
Coca-Cola HBC AG EEE €53.10 €46.77 −12%
Varun Beverages Limited VBL ₹431.00 ₹187.49 −56%
Eastroc Beverage (Group) Co 605499 ¥123.07 ¥107.57 −13%
MIXUE Group 2097 HK$232.60 HK$307.46 +32%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Nongfu Spring Co Ltd (9633) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$30.90 versus a price of HK$42.40, about −27% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 9633?
Our model-based fair value for Nongfu Spring Co Ltd is HK$30.90 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$42.40.
What is the quality score of 9633?
Nongfu Spring Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 77/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Nongfu Spring Co Ltd (9633)?
Nongfu Spring Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$52.6B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 9633?
The net profit margin of Nongfu Spring Co Ltd is about 30.2%, meaning it keeps roughly 30.2% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Nongfu Spring Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Nongfu Spring Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.33% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).
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