MIXUE Group (2097) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · HK · Market cap HK$83.5B (≈ $10.6B)
What is MIXUE Group really worth?
A solid business, trading 33% below our fair value of HK$307.46.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 22, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 14 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 22, 2026, revised from HK$306.94 to HK$307.46 (+0.2%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price −8.7% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The rarer combination: high quality (71/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$236.04). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- The model range is unusually wide (HK$236.04 to HK$746.75). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Price vs Fair Value (18 months)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
18‑month range HK$204.40 – HK$615.50 · fair‑value band HK$236.04 – HK$746.75 · the HK$206.20 price screens below the HK$307.46 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 22, 2026.
Analysis
MIXUE Group (2097) currently trades at HK$206.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$307.46, implying the stock looks roughly 32.9% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 71/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of HK$659.69 per share, and 19 of the 24 models we run sit above the HK$206.20 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$43.58, and 5 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, MIXUE Group generated revenue of HK$33.6B at a net margin of 17.5%. Revenue grew 51.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 29.8%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$8.2B. Fundamentals as of Aug 22, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$236.04 (bear case) to HK$746.75 (bull case); at HK$206.20, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 63% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at 49%, 2097 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly HK$4.89 per share, which is 1.6 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (HK$659.69) versus Asset-Based (HK$43.58). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (71).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 22, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 70 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 12
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
MIXUE Group operates as a drinks company in Chinese mainland. The company offers freshly made fruit drinks, tea drinks, ice cream, coffee and fresh beer under MIXUE, Lucky Cup, and FULU brand names. It also provides syrups, milk, tea, coffee, fruit, grains, and condiments.
Full company description
MIXUE Group operates as a drinks company in Chinese mainland. The company offers freshly made fruit drinks, tea drinks, ice cream, coffee and fresh beer under MIXUE, Lucky Cup, and FULU brand names. It also provides syrups, milk, tea, coffee, fruit, grains, and condiments. In addition, the company engages in the operation of sales of goods and equipment to franchisees, as well as provision of franchise and related services. MIXUE Group was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Zhengzhou, the People's Republic of China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
MIXUE Group reported revenue of 32.7B CNY in FY2025 versus 10.4B CNY in FY2021, a compound +33.3%/yr. Reported net income was 5.7B CNY in FY2025, compounding +31.6%/yr from FY2021.
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Peer Group
Beverages - Non-Alcoholic · 87 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Beverages - Non-Alcoholic median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Beverages - Non-Alcoholic stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 22, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Coca-Cola Company KO | $89.06 | $36.57 | −59% |
| PepsiCo, Inc PEP | $139.72 | $106.91 | −23% |
| Monster Beverage Corporation MNST | $46.70 | $35.82 | −23% |
| Nongfu Spring Co 9633 | HK$42.54 | HK$30.90 | −27% |
| Coca-Cola Europacific Partners PLC CCEP | €92.10 | €70.86 | −23% |
| Keurig Dr Pepper Inc KDP | $32.18 | $30.99 | −4% |
| Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A. KOF | $112.58 | $108.50 | −4% |
| Coca-Cola HBC AG EEE | €53.10 | €46.77 | −12% |
| Varun Beverages Limited VBL | ₹431.00 | ₹187.49 | −56% |
| Eastroc Beverage (Group) Co 605499 | ¥123.07 | ¥107.57 | −13% |
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