UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 21, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of UnitedHealth Group Incorporated stock $532, price $417, upside +27.5%, quality 61 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 20, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $230.15 – $596.11 · fair‑value band $376.54 – $691.40 · the $417.00 price screens below the $531.88 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 20, 2026.
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UnitedHealth Group Incorporated operates as a health care company in the United States and internationally. It operates through four segments: Optum Health, Optum Insight, Optum Rx; and UnitedHealthcare.
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The Optum Health segment provides care delivery, care management, wellness and consumer engagement, and health financial services with patients, consumers, care delivery systems, providers, employers, payers, and public-sector entities.
The Optum Insight segment offers software and information products, advisory consulting arrangements, and managed services outsourcing contracts to hospital systems, physicians, health plans, public entities, life sciences companies and other organizations.
The Optum Rx segment provides pharmacy care services and programs, including retail network contracting, home delivery, specialty and community health pharmacy services, infusion, and purchasing and clinical capabilities, as well as develops programs in the areas of step therapy, formulary management, drug adherence, and disease and drug therapy management.
The UnitedHealthcare segment offers consumer-oriented health benefit plans and services for national employers, public sector employers, mid-sized employers, small businesses, and individuals; Medicaid plans, including Temporary Assistance to Needy Families; Children's Health Insurance Programs; Dual SNPs; Long-Term Services and Supports; Aged, Blind and Disabled; and other federal, state, and community health care programs. and health care benefits products and services to state programs caring for the economically disadvantaged, medically underserved, and those without the benefit of employer-funded health care coverage.
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated was founded in 1974 and is based in Eden Prairie, Minnesota.
Stock analysis
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) currently trades at $417.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $531.88, implying the stock looks roughly 21.6% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $425.18 per share, and 7 of the 22 models we run sit above the $417.00 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $131.46, and 15 of the 22 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $376.54 (bear) to $691.40 (bull), the price of $417.00 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated reported revenue of $448B in FY2025 versus $288B in FY2021, a compound +11.7%/yr. Reported net income was $12.1B in FY2025, compounding −8.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $378B Mega · P/E ratio 26.8 · P/S ratio 0.84 · EPS (TTM) $15.55 · Dividend yield 0.5% · Net margin 3.5% · Return on equity 15.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 54 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 63% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 7% fair-value upside, at 28%, UNH screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$376.54Fair Value $531.88Bull$691.40
Price $417.00 · Upside +27.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($10.78 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.85/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+11.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +11.0% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−2.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−2.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−3.7% vs 8.2%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.9% → 4%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+9.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +7.0% a year for the price and +0.2% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Very negative
AI conclusion: UnitedHealth draws a moderate moat from scale and data assets, yet regulatory exposure and persistent margin pressures limit durability.
Main risk: Healthcare regulation exposure could constrain plan design and directly pressure margins in the government business lines.
UnitedHealth is exiting Medicare Advantage plans covering roughly 390,000 members next year, mostly higher-cost PPOs, to concentrate on narrower HMO and special needs offerings with stronger cost control. Rising medical utilization adds pressure even as the company expands zero-premium benefits in selected markets. Our models see the stock as undervalued, but will the shift improve margins faster than membership and utilization headwinds erode them?
Compare UnitedHealth Group Incorporated with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its sector: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median. (Industry “Healthcare Plans” was too small, so the broader sector is used.)Health Care · 2361 stocks
Beats the sector median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its sector peers.
Valuation
Quality Score61 · Above median
Fair Value upside+27.5% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)15.8% · Top 25%
Return on assets3.9% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)3.5% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)5.8% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−0.4% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.5% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.77× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Health Care median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)26.8× · Pricier than median
P/B4.01× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "UnitedHealth Group Incorporated Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/UNH
Frequently asked questions
Is UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 20, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $531.88 versus a price of $417.00, about +28% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of UNH?
Our model-based fair value for UnitedHealth Group Incorporated is $531.88 (as of Oct 20, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $417.00.
What is the quality score of UNH?
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $531.88 (as of Oct 20, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario $376.54, optimistic scenario $691.40. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the UnitedHealth Group Incorporated stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $531.88, about +28% upside versus a price of $417.00 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $376.54, optimistic scenario $691.40. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH)?
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $450B (latest available figure, as of Oct 20, 2026).
Does UnitedHealth Group Incorporated pay a dividend?
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated currently shows a dividend yield of 0.53% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 20, 2026).
What growth is priced into UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, UnitedHealth Group Incorporated would have to grow free cash flow by +9.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 7.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.7 % per year. As of Oct 20, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of UNH use?
Our models discount UnitedHealth Group Incorporated at 7.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (mega), damped by beta 0.62, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For UnitedHealth Group Incorporated that is +9.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (7.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at UnitedHealth Group Incorporated grew +11.7 % a year. The price currently implies +9.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +5.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (+9.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.25 %: that much free cash flow UnitedHealth Group Incorporated produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (7.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For UnitedHealth Group Incorporated it is $531.88 per share (as of Oct 20, 2026), against a price of $417.00. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is UnitedHealth Group Incorporated stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 20, 2026, UNH trades below its calculated fair value: price $417.00, fair value $531.88, a gap of about +28% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of UNH?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($417.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($531.88). For UnitedHealth Group Incorporated the two are $114.88 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is UnitedHealth Group Incorporated worth?
The market values UnitedHealth Group Incorporated at about $378B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 20, 2026). Per share that is $417.00; our models calculate a fair value of $531.88 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about UNH?
Our models span a range for UnitedHealth Group Incorporated: cautious scenario $376.54, base $531.88, optimistic $691.40 per share (as of Oct 20, 2026, price $417.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of UNH?
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 26.8 (as of Oct 20, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $531.88 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 29.8 (reported for FY2025: 31.5). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 4 of the years ex one-offs: 22.1. Other multiples: PEG 1.0, P/B 4.0, P/S 0.8, EV/EBITDA 14.7.
What is the PEG ratio of UNH?
The PEG ratio of UnitedHealth Group Incorporated is 1.01 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 20, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH)?
Balance-sheet figures for UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (as of Oct 20, 2026): return on equity 15.8%, debt of 0.77 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is UNH from its 52-week high?
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated trades at $417.00, about 4% below its 52-week high of $433.68 and 63% above the low of $255.97 (as of Oct 21, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $531.88 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to UnitedHealth Group Incorporated?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value CVS Health Corporation, Elevance Health, Inc, The Cigna Group, Humana Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is UnitedHealth Group Incorporated stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 20, 2026: price $417.00, calculated fair value $531.88 (+28%), Quality Score 61/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of UNH calculated?
We run UnitedHealth Group Incorporated through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $531.88, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.6 % above its aggregate fair value. UnitedHealth Group Incorporated currently trades 22 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH)?
The closing price on Oct 21, 2026 was $417.00. Our model-based fair value is $531.88, about +28% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with UnitedHealth Group Incorporated right now?
Solid quality (61/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($376.54 to $691.40) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) come from?
Earnings per share at UnitedHealth Group Incorporated grew +12.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +11.7 %, EBIT margin −0.6 %, tax rate +3.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −2.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of UnitedHealth Group Incorporated
How large is the market capitalisation of UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH)?
The market capitalisation of UnitedHealth Group Incorporated is $378B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH)?
The price-to-sales ratio of UnitedHealth Group Incorporated is 0.84 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH)?
Earnings per share at UnitedHealth Group Incorporated are $15.55 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 26.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH)?
The dividend yield of UnitedHealth Group Incorporated is 0.5% (payout 13.5%, on adjusted earnings, reported 14.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH)?
The net margin of UnitedHealth Group Incorporated is 3.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH)?
The return on equity (ROE) of UnitedHealth Group Incorporated is 15.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of UnitedHealth Group Incorporated is 10.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH)?
The operating margin of UnitedHealth Group Incorporated is 5.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH)?
Revenue at UnitedHealth Group Incorporated is growing −0.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +11.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH)?
Earnings per share at UnitedHealth Group Incorporated are growing +75.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) carry?
The net debt of UnitedHealth Group Incorporated is $54.0B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Oct 20, 2026