CVS Health Corp (CVS) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 21, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of CVS Health Corp stock $42.44, price $93.45, upside -54.6%, quality 56 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 21, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $41.03 – $109.92 · fair‑value band $42.44 – $70.70 · the $93.45 price screens above the $42.44 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 21, 2026.
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CVS Health Corporation provides health solutions in the United States. The company operates through Health Care Benefits, Health Services, and Pharmacy & Consumer Wellness segments.
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The Health Care Benefits segment offers traditional, voluntary, and consumer-directed health insurance products and related services, including medical, pharmacy, dental and behavioral health plans, medical management capabilities, Medicare Advantage and Medicare Supplement plans, PDPS and Medicaid health care management services.
It serves employer groups, individuals, college students, part-time and hourly workers, health plans, health care providers, governmental units, government-sponsored plans, labor groups, and expatriates.
The Health Services segment offers pharmacy benefit management solutions, including plan design and administration, formulary management, retail pharmacy network management, specialty and mail order pharmacy, clinical, disease management, medical spend management services, pharmacy and other administrative services.
It serves employers, insurance companies, unions, government employee groups, health plans, PDPS, Medicaid managed care plans, CMS, plans offered on public health insurance, and other sponsors of health benefit plans.
The Pharmacy & Consumer Wellness segment sells prescription and over-the-counter drugs, consumer health and beauty products, personal care products, and other general merchandise products.
This segment also distributes prescription drugs; and provides related pharmacy consulting and other ancillary services to care facilities and other care settings.
It operates online retail pharmacy websites, retail specialty pharmacy stores, compounding pharmacies and branches for infusion and enteral nutrition services. The company was formerly known as CVS Caremark Corporation and changed its name to CVS Health Corporation in September 2014.
CVS Health Corporation was founded in 1963 and is headquartered in Woonsocket, Rhode Island.
Stock analysis
CVS Health Corp (CVS) currently trades at $93.45, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $42.44, 54.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $104.71 per share, and 8 of the 24 models we run sit above the $93.45 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $15.83, and 16 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $42.44 (bear) to $70.70 (bull), the price of $93.45 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
CVS Health Corp reported revenue of $402B in FY2025 versus $292B in FY2021, a compound +8.3%/yr. Reported net income was $1.8B in FY2025, compounding −31.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $120B Large · P/E ratio 24.6 · P/S ratio 0.29 · EPS (TTM) $3.80 · Dividend yield 2.8% · Net margin 1.2% · Return on equity 6.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 34 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 35% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 7% fair-value upside, at −55%, CVS screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$42.44Fair Value $42.44Bull$70.70
Price $93.45 · Upside -54.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.9214 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.72/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.1% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+4.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+1.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−23.9% vs −11.4%, slowing
Profit margin 2019 to 2024 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 2%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+7.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +5.1% a year for the price and +0.6% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (97 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Moderate scale advantages in the integrated pharmacy and insurance model provide some stability, yet thin margins, high leverage and limited pricing power remain key vulnerabilities.
Main risk: Ongoing regulatory reimbursement pressure combined with rising medical utilization in Medicare Advantage would hit margins in the government business lines.
CVS Health is opening compact pharmacy-focused stores like the recent one in Boston, part of nearly twenty smaller sites planned for 2026 to emphasize prescriptions and pharmacist services over full retail space. This retail shift aims to adapt the core pharmacy business amid evolving patient needs. Our models see the stock as overvalued, so will these formats strengthen the integrated model enough to lift results or will Medicare Advantage and other pressures limit the gains?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its sector: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median. (Industry “Healthcare Plans” was too small, so the broader sector is used.)Health Care · 2358 stocks
Beats the sector median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its sector peers.
Valuation
Quality Score56 · Above median
Fair Value upside−54.6% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)6.2% · Above median
Return on assets0.7% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)1.2% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)3.9% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)7.1% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.80× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Health Care median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)24.6× · Pricier than median
P/B1.59× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)0.29× · Cheapest 25%
Price / free cash flow15.4× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA10.3× · Cheaper than median
PEG0.21× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 6
FUTURE (revenue growth)36· sector 28
PAST (return on equity)25· sector 16
HEALTH (low debt)60· sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)57· sector 33
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "CVS Health Corp Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CVS
Frequently asked questions
Is CVS Health Corp (CVS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 21, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $42.44 versus a price of $93.45, about −55% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CVS?
Our model-based fair value for CVS Health Corp is $42.44 (as of Oct 21, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $93.45.
What is the quality score of CVS?
CVS Health Corp has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for CVS Health Corp (CVS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $42.44 (as of Oct 21, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $42.44, optimistic scenario $70.70. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the CVS Health Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $42.44, about −55% upside versus a price of $93.45 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $42.44, optimistic scenario $70.70. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of CVS Health Corp (CVS)?
CVS Health Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $413B (latest available figure, as of Oct 21, 2026).
Does CVS Health Corp pay a dividend?
CVS Health Corp currently shows a dividend yield of 2.85% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 21, 2026).
What growth is priced into CVS Health Corp (CVS)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, CVS Health Corp would have to grow free cash flow by +7.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.4 % per year. As of Oct 21, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CVS use?
Our models discount CVS Health Corp at 8.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.60, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For CVS Health Corp that is +7.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has CVS Health Corp (CVS) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at CVS Health Corp grew +8.4 % a year. The price currently implies +7.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of CVS Health Corp (CVS) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +5.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into CVS Health Corp (+7.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of CVS Health Corp (CVS)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.51 %: that much free cash flow CVS Health Corp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of CVS Health Corp (CVS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For CVS Health Corp it is $42.44 per share (as of Oct 21, 2026), against a price of $93.45. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is CVS Health Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 21, 2026, CVS trades above its calculated fair value: price $93.45, fair value $42.44, a gap of about −55% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CVS?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($93.45); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($42.44). For CVS Health Corp the two are $51.01 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is CVS Health Corp worth?
The market values CVS Health Corp at about $120B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 21, 2026). Per share that is $93.45; our models calculate a fair value of $42.44 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CVS?
Our models span a range for CVS Health Corp: cautious scenario $42.44, base $42.44, optimistic $70.70 per share (as of Oct 21, 2026, price $93.45). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CVS?
CVS Health Corp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 24.6 (as of Oct 21, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $42.44 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 16.4 (reported for FY2025: 67.2). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 9 of the years ex one-offs: 13.5. Other multiples: PEG 0.2, P/B 1.6, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 10.3.
What is the PEG ratio of CVS?
The PEG ratio of CVS Health Corp is 0.21 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 21, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of CVS Health Corp (CVS)?
Balance-sheet figures for CVS Health Corp (as of Oct 21, 2026): return on equity 6.2%, debt of 0.80 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CVS from its 52-week high?
CVS Health Corp trades at $93.45, about 15% below its 52-week high of $109.92 and 35% above the low of $69.04 (as of Oct 21, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $42.44 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to CVS Health Corp?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value UnitedHealth Group, Elevance Health, Inc, The Cigna Group, Humana Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is CVS Health Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 21, 2026: price $93.45, calculated fair value $42.44 (−55%), Quality Score 56/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CVS calculated?
We run CVS Health Corp through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $42.44, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.6 % above its aggregate fair value. CVS Health Corp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of CVS Health Corp (CVS)?
The closing price on Oct 21, 2026 was $93.45. Our model-based fair value is $42.44, about −55% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with CVS Health Corp right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($70.70). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of CVS Health Corp (CVS) come from?
Earnings per share at CVS Health Corp grew −1.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.7 %, EBIT margin −8.0 %, tax rate +2.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −4.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of CVS Health Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of CVS Health Corp (CVS)?
The market capitalisation of CVS Health Corp is $120B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of CVS Health Corp (CVS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of CVS Health Corp is 0.29 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of CVS Health Corp (CVS)?
Earnings per share at CVS Health Corp are $3.80 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 24.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of CVS Health Corp (CVS)?
The dividend yield of CVS Health Corp is 2.8% (payout 17.1%, on adjusted earnings, reported 70.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of CVS Health Corp (CVS)?
The net margin of CVS Health Corp is 1.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of CVS Health Corp (CVS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of CVS Health Corp is 6.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of CVS Health Corp (CVS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of CVS Health Corp is 4.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of CVS Health Corp (CVS)?
The operating margin of CVS Health Corp is 3.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at CVS Health Corp (CVS)?
Revenue at CVS Health Corp is growing +7.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at CVS Health Corp (CVS)?
Earnings per share at CVS Health Corp are growing +189% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does CVS Health Corp (CVS) carry?
The net debt of CVS Health Corp is $85.1B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 10.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 21, 2026