Alignment Healthcare LLC (ALHC) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 21, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Alignment Healthcare LLC stock $7.45, price $8.44, upside -11.7%, quality 49 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 14, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $4.47 – $24.56 · fair‑value band $5.42 – $11.39 · the $8.44 price screens above the $7.45 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 14, 2026.
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Alignment Healthcare, Inc. operates a consumer-centric healthcare platform for seniors in the United States. It delivers customized healthcare experience to meet the needs of seniors through its Medicare Advantage plans.
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Alignment Healthcare, Inc. was founded in 2013 and is based in Orange, California.
Stock analysis
Alignment Healthcare LLC (ALHC) currently trades at $8.44, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $7.45, 11.7% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $7.45 per share, and 4 of the 14 models we run sit above the $8.44 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $1.78, and 10 of the 14 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $5.42 (bear) to $11.39 (bull), the price of $8.44 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Alignment Healthcare LLC reported revenue of $3.9B in FY2025 versus $1.2B in FY2021, a compound +35.6%/yr. Reported net income was −$724K in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $1.8B Small · P/E ratio 44.4 · P/S ratio 0.40 · EPS (TTM) $0.1900 · Net margin 0.9% · Return on equity 20.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) −16.3% · Operating margin 3.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 66% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 7% fair-value upside, at −12%, ALHC screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$5.42Fair Value $7.45Bull$11.39
Price $8.44 · Upside -11.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.1536 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.81/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+46.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+40.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+32.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+31.7%
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−0.5% (2020) → 0.4% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+6.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+22.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +4.4% a year for the price and +19.7% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (95 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Compare Alignment Healthcare LLC with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its sector: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median. (Industry “Healthcare Plans” was too small, so the broader sector is used.)Health Care · 2361 stocks
Beats the sector median on 5/13 measures
Overall it trails its sector peers.
Valuation
Quality Score49 · Below median
Fair Value upside−11.7% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)20.0% · Top 25%
Return on assets−0.1% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)0.9% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)3.2% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)31.6% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.80× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Health Care median · lower = cheaper
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Is Alignment Healthcare LLC (ALHC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 14, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $7.45 versus a price of $8.44, about −12% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ALHC?
Our model-based fair value for Alignment Healthcare LLC is $7.45 (as of Oct 14, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $8.44.
What is the quality score of ALHC?
Alignment Healthcare LLC has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Alignment Healthcare LLC (ALHC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $7.45 (as of Oct 14, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario $5.42, optimistic scenario $11.39. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Alignment Healthcare LLC stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $7.45, about −12% upside versus a price of $8.44 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $5.42, optimistic scenario $11.39. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Alignment Healthcare LLC (ALHC)?
Alignment Healthcare LLC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $4.6B (latest available figure, as of Oct 14, 2026).
What growth is priced into Alignment Healthcare LLC (ALHC)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Alignment Healthcare LLC would have to grow free cash flow by +6.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +32.7 % per year. As of Oct 14, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ALHC use?
Our models discount Alignment Healthcare LLC at 11.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.11, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Alignment Healthcare LLC that is +6.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Alignment Healthcare LLC (ALHC) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Alignment Healthcare LLC grew +32.7 % a year. The price currently implies +6.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Alignment Healthcare LLC (ALHC) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +5.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Alignment Healthcare LLC (+6.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Alignment Healthcare LLC (ALHC)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.23 %: that much free cash flow Alignment Healthcare LLC produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Alignment Healthcare LLC (ALHC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Alignment Healthcare LLC it is $7.45 per share (as of Oct 14, 2026), against a price of $8.44. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Alignment Healthcare LLC stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 14, 2026, ALHC trades above its calculated fair value: price $8.44, fair value $7.45, a gap of about −12% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ALHC?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($8.44); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($7.45). For Alignment Healthcare LLC the two are $0.9900 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Alignment Healthcare LLC worth?
The market values Alignment Healthcare LLC at about $1.8B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 14, 2026). Per share that is $8.44; our models calculate a fair value of $7.45 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ALHC?
Our models span a range for Alignment Healthcare LLC: cautious scenario $5.42, base $7.45, optimistic $11.39 per share (as of Oct 14, 2026, price $8.44). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ALHC?
Alignment Healthcare LLC trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 44.4 (as of Oct 14, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $7.45 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 10.1, P/S 0.4, EV/EBITDA 17.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of Alignment Healthcare LLC (ALHC)?
Balance-sheet figures for Alignment Healthcare LLC (as of Oct 14, 2026): return on equity 20.0%, debt of 1.80 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 49/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ALHC from its 52-week high?
Alignment Healthcare LLC trades at $8.44, about 66% below its 52-week high of $24.56 and 12% above the low of $7.55 (as of Oct 21, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $7.45 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Alignment Healthcare LLC?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value UnitedHealth Group, CVS Health Corporation, Elevance Health, Inc, The Cigna Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Alignment Healthcare LLC stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 14, 2026: price $8.44, calculated fair value $7.45 (−12%), Quality Score 49/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ALHC calculated?
We run Alignment Healthcare LLC through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $7.45, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.6 % above its aggregate fair value. Alignment Healthcare LLC itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Alignment Healthcare LLC (ALHC)?
The closing price on Oct 21, 2026 was $8.44. Our model-based fair value is $7.45, about −12% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Alignment Healthcare LLC right now?
A fairly wide model range ($5.42 to $11.39) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Key figures of Alignment Healthcare LLC
How large is the market capitalisation of Alignment Healthcare LLC (ALHC)?
The market capitalisation of Alignment Healthcare LLC is $1.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Alignment Healthcare LLC (ALHC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Alignment Healthcare LLC is 0.40 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Alignment Healthcare LLC (ALHC)?
Earnings per share at Alignment Healthcare LLC are $0.1900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 44.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Alignment Healthcare LLC (ALHC)?
The net margin of Alignment Healthcare LLC is 0.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Alignment Healthcare LLC (ALHC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Alignment Healthcare LLC is 20.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Alignment Healthcare LLC (ALHC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Alignment Healthcare LLC is −16.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Alignment Healthcare LLC (ALHC)?
The operating margin of Alignment Healthcare LLC is 3.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Alignment Healthcare LLC (ALHC)?
Revenue at Alignment Healthcare LLC is growing +31.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +40.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Alignment Healthcare LLC (ALHC)?
Earnings per share at Alignment Healthcare LLC are growing +143% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Alignment Healthcare LLC (ALHC) hold?
Alignment Healthcare LLC holds more cash than debt, $240M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Oct 14, 2026