Alignment Healthcare LLC (ALHC) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · US · Market cap $4.3B · ISIN US01625V1044
What is Alignment Healthcare LLC really worth?
Alignment Healthcare LLC
ALHC · US
Structural break: The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
A solid business, but trading 471% above our fair value of $2.37.
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Share price +0.2% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($2.68). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $4.47 – $27.27 · fair‑value band $2.07 – $2.68 · the $13.55 price screens above the $2.37 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Alignment Healthcare LLC (ALHC) currently trades at $13.55, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.37, implying the stock looks roughly 471.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $7.59 per share, and 2 of the 16 models we run sit above the $13.55 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $0.5800, and 14 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Over the trailing twelve months, Alignment Healthcare LLC generated revenue of $4.3B at a net margin of 0.5%. Revenue grew 33.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 12.5%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $240M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $2.07 (bear case) to $2.68 (bull case); at $13.55, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 43% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −2% fair-value upside, at −83%, ALHC screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $0.0679 per share, which is 2.9 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($7.59) versus Asset-Based ($0.5800). Highest evidence: Owner Earnings (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 21
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Alignment Healthcare, Inc. operates a consumer-centric healthcare platform for seniors in the United States. It delivers customized healthcare experience to meet the needs of seniors through its Medicare Advantage plans. Alignment Healthcare, Inc. was founded in 2013 and is based in Orange, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Alignment Healthcare LLC reported revenue of $3.9B in FY2025 versus $1.2B in FY2021, a compound +35.6%/yr. Reported net income was −$724K in FY2025.
ALHC screens 471% overvalued. Compare with UnitedHealth Group →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Alignment Healthcare to Present in Baird 2026 Global Healthcare Conference and Attend Morgan Stanley 24th Annual Global Healthcare Conferenc
- Alignment Healthcare files motion to dismiss whistleblower lawsuit
- Can ALHC's Raised 2026 Outlook Offset Heavier Second-Half Spending?
Peer Group
Healthcare Plans · 15 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Healthcare Plans median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Healthcare Plans stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| UnitedHealth Group UNH | $395.05 | $292.06 | −26% |
| CVS Health Corporation CVS | $93.06 | $42.25 | −55% |
| Elevance Health, Inc ELV | $399.14 | $426.53 | +7% |
| The Cigna Group CI | $276.08 | $495.42 | +79% |
| Humana Inc HUM | $385.54 | $126.42 | −67% |
| Centene Corporation CNC | $64.75 | $111.96 | +73% |
| Molina Healthcare, Inc MOH | $203.06 | $199.31 | −2% |
| Oscar Health, Inc OSCR | $30.93 | $61.86 | +100% |
| Progyny, Inc PGNY | $25.65 | $16.44 | −36% |
| Medi Assist Healthcare Services Limited MEDIASSIST | ₹346.80 | ₹226.12 | −35% |
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