Molina Healthcare Inc (MOH) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 21, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Molina Healthcare Inc stock $231, price $215, upside +7.7%, quality 50 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $122.65 – $419.53 · fair‑value band $149.20 – $300.89 · the $214.90 price screens below the $231.45 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
Follow Molina Healthcare in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Molina Healthcare is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Molina Healthcare, Inc. provides managed healthcare services to low-income families and individuals under the Medicaid and Medicare programs and through the state insurance marketplaces in the United States. It operates in four segments: Medicaid, Medicare, Marketplace, and Other.
Show moreShow less
The company was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in Long Beach, California.
Stock analysis
Molina Healthcare Inc (MOH) currently trades at $214.90, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $231.45, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 7.2%).
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $258.81 per share, and 6 of the 15 models we run sit above the $214.90 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $85.26, and 9 of the 15 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $149.20 (bear) to $300.89 (bull), the price of $214.90 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Molina Healthcare Inc reported revenue of $45.4B in FY2025 versus $27.8B in FY2021, a compound +13.1%/yr. Reported net income was $472M in FY2025, compounding −8.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $11.0B Large · P/S ratio 0.26 · EPS (TTM) $−0.7300 · Net margin 0.0% · Return on equity −0.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.9% · Operating margin 1.4% · Revenue (TTM) $42.5B.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 31 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 75% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −8% fair-value upside, at 8%, MOH screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$149.20Fair Value $231.45Bull$300.89
Price $214.90 · Upside +7.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.58/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+11.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +12.4% a year
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.6%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−3.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−3.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−3.7% vs 21.8%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 2%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (97 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: Scale in government-sponsored plans such as Medicaid offers potential, yet thin margins and negative cash flow from rising medical costs limit any moat.
Main risk: Ongoing rises in medical costs together with shifting state contracts could keep sustained pressure on margins across its government plan book.
Molina concentrates on government-sponsored plans like Medicaid, where rising medical costs have squeezed margins even as premium revenue dominates. Our models see it as undervalued on the view that reimbursements will eventually align better with those costs. Will the firm realize those margin recoveries across its book of business, or will ongoing cost trends and shifting state contracts keep pressure on results?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its sector: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median. (Industry “Healthcare Plans” was too small, so the broader sector is used.)Health Care · 2362 stocks
Beats the sector median on 4/11 measures
Overall it trails its sector peers.
Valuation
Quality Score50 · Below median
Fair Value upside+7.7% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets3.0% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)0.0% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)1.4% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−5.7% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.93× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Health Care median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Molina Healthcare Inc (MOH) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 22, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $231.45 versus a price of $214.90, about +8% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of MOH?
Our model-based fair value for Molina Healthcare Inc is $231.45 (as of Oct 22, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $214.90.
What is the quality score of MOH?
Molina Healthcare Inc has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Molina Healthcare Inc (MOH)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $231.45 (as of Oct 22, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario $149.20, optimistic scenario $300.89. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Molina Healthcare Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $231.45, about +8% upside versus a price of $214.90 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $149.20, optimistic scenario $300.89. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Molina Healthcare Inc (MOH)?
Molina Healthcare Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $42.5B (latest available figure, as of Oct 22, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Molina Healthcare Inc (MOH)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Molina Healthcare Inc it is $231.45 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026), against a price of $214.90. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Molina Healthcare Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 22, 2026, MOH trades below its calculated fair value: price $214.90, fair value $231.45, a gap of about +8% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MOH?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($214.90); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($231.45). For Molina Healthcare Inc the two are $16.55 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Molina Healthcare Inc worth?
The market values Molina Healthcare Inc at about $11.0B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 22, 2026). Per share that is $214.90; our models calculate a fair value of $231.45 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MOH?
Our models span a range for Molina Healthcare Inc: cautious scenario $149.20, base $231.45, optimistic $300.89 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026, price $214.90). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of MOH?
The PEG ratio of Molina Healthcare Inc is 0.89 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 22, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Molina Healthcare Inc (MOH)?
Balance-sheet figures for Molina Healthcare Inc (as of Oct 22, 2026): return on equity −0.2%, debt of 0.93 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 50/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MOH from its 52-week high?
Molina Healthcare Inc trades at $214.90, about 12% below its 52-week high of $242.88 and 75% above the low of $122.65 (as of Oct 21, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $231.45 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Molina Healthcare Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value UnitedHealth Group, CVS Health Corporation, Elevance Health, Inc, The Cigna Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Molina Healthcare Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 22, 2026: price $214.90, calculated fair value $231.45 (+8%), Quality Score 50/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MOH calculated?
We run Molina Healthcare Inc through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $231.45, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.6 % above its aggregate fair value. Molina Healthcare Inc currently trades 7 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Molina Healthcare Inc (MOH)?
The closing price on Oct 21, 2026 was $214.90. Our model-based fair value is $231.45, about +8% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Molina Healthcare Inc right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range ($149.20 to $300.89) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Molina Healthcare Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Molina Healthcare Inc (MOH)?
The market capitalisation of Molina Healthcare Inc is $11.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Molina Healthcare Inc (MOH)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Molina Healthcare Inc is 0.26 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Molina Healthcare Inc (MOH)?
Earnings per share at Molina Healthcare Inc are $−0.7300. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Molina Healthcare Inc (MOH)?
The net margin of Molina Healthcare Inc is 0.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Molina Healthcare Inc (MOH)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Molina Healthcare Inc is −0.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Molina Healthcare Inc (MOH)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Molina Healthcare Inc is 8.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Molina Healthcare Inc (MOH)?
The operating margin of Molina Healthcare Inc is 1.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Molina Healthcare Inc (MOH)?
Revenue at Molina Healthcare Inc is growing −5.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +12.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Molina Healthcare Inc (MOH)?
Earnings per share at Molina Healthcare Inc are growing −75.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Molina Healthcare Inc (MOH) generate?
The free cash flow of Molina Healthcare Inc is −$636M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Molina Healthcare Inc (MOH) hold?
Molina Healthcare Inc holds more cash than debt, $298M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
Free · no account needed
Watch Molina Healthcare Inc in the live analysis
One click puts Molina Healthcare Inc on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 28,000+ stock screener.
Thin data
Oct 22, 2026