Molina Healthcare Inc (MOH) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · US · Market cap $12.1B · ISIN US60855R1005
What is Molina Healthcare Inc really worth?
Molina Healthcare Inc
MOH · US
A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value of $199.31.
Risks
Fair value as of: Sep 3, 2026
From 15 valuation models · updated yesterday
Share price +6.0% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin.
- Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $122.65 – $419.53 · fair‑value band $149.48 – $249.14 · the $202.91 price screens above the $199.31 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 3, 2026.
Analysis
Molina Healthcare Inc (MOH) currently trades at $202.91, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $199.31, implying the stock looks roughly 1.8% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $351.01 per share, and 7 of the 15 models we run sit above the $202.91 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $52.33, and 8 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, Molina Healthcare Inc generated revenue of $43.1B at a net margin of 0.4%. Revenue declined 4.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 4.5%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $298M. Fundamentals as of Sep 3, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $149.48 (bear case) to $249.14 (bull case); at $202.91, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 35% below its 52-week high and 68% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −26% fair-value upside, at −2%, MOH screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $2.53 per share, which is 1.3 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 15 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($351.01) versus Asset-Based ($52.33). Highest evidence: EPV (74).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 3, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 52 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 56
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Molina Healthcare, Inc. provides managed healthcare services to low-income families and individuals under the Medicaid and Medicare programs and through the state insurance marketplaces in the United States. It operates in four segments: Medicaid, Medicare, Marketplace, and Other.
Full company description
Molina Healthcare, Inc. provides managed healthcare services to low-income families and individuals under the Medicaid and Medicare programs and through the state insurance marketplaces in the United States. It operates in four segments: Medicaid, Medicare, Marketplace, and Other. The company was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in Long Beach, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Molina Healthcare Inc reported revenue of $45.4B in FY2025 versus $27.8B in FY2021, a compound +13.1%/yr. Reported net income was $472M in FY2025, compounding −8.0%/yr from FY2021.
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Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Here's Why Investors Should Retain Molina Healthcare Stock for Now
- Molina Healthcare (MOH) Draws Fresh Attention, Is The Stock Still A Bargain?
- Molina Healthcare (MOH) Stock Looks Like A Bargain After Strong Q1 Results
- Zacks Industry Outlook UnitedHealth, The Cigna, Humana, Centene and Molina
Peer Group
Healthcare Plans · 15 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Healthcare Plans median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Healthcare Plans stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 3, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| UnitedHealth Group UNH | $395.05 | $292.06 | −26% |
| CVS Health Corporation CVS | $93.06 | $42.25 | −55% |
| Elevance Health, Inc ELV | $399.14 | $426.53 | +7% |
| The Cigna Group CI | $276.08 | $495.42 | +79% |
| Humana Inc HUM | $385.54 | $126.42 | −67% |
| Centene Corporation CNC | $64.75 | $111.96 | +73% |
| Oscar Health, Inc OSCR | $30.93 | $61.86 | +100% |
| Alignment Healthcare, Inc ALHC | $13.52 | $2.37 | −82% |
| Progyny, Inc PGNY | $25.65 | $16.44 | −36% |
| Medi Assist Healthcare Services Limited MEDIASSIST | ₹346.80 | ₹226.12 | −35% |
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