Humana Inc (HUM) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · US · Market cap $48.0B · ISIN US4448591028
What is Humana Inc really worth?
Humana Inc
HUM · US
A solid business, but trading 222% above our fair value of $126.42.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 30, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 6 days ago
Share price +12.2% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($210.27). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $162.46 – $540.03 · fair‑value band $120.06 – $210.27 · the $406.52 price screens above the $126.42 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
Analysis
Humana Inc (HUM) currently trades at $406.52, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $126.42, implying the stock looks roughly 221.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $180.79 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the $406.52 price. Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $43.29, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Humana Inc generated revenue of $137B at a net margin of 0.8%. Revenue grew 23.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.3%. Net debt stands at $8.7B. Fundamentals as of Aug 30, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $120.06 (bear case) to $210.27 (bull case); at $406.52, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 150% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −2% fair-value upside, at −69%, HUM screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $3.95 per share, which is 3.1 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($180.79) versus Economic Profit ($43.29). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (77).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 30, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 70
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Humana Inc. provides medical and specialty insurance products in the United States. It operates in two segments, Insurance and CenterWell.
Full company description
Humana Inc. provides medical and specialty insurance products in the United States. It operates in two segments, Insurance and CenterWell. The Insurance segment offers individual Medicare Advantage products, including health insurance benefits, including wellness programs, chronic care management, and care coordination; individual Medicare stand-alone prescription drug products (PDP); group Medicare advantage and Medicare stand-alone PDP; Medicare supplements; specialty and ancillary insurance comprising dental, vision, life and disability; and administrative services to arrange health care services for active-duty and retired military personnel and dependents, as well as pharmacy benefit managers. Its CenterWell segment operates full-service, value-based senior focused primary care centers under the Conviva Senior Primary Care and CenterWell Senior Primary Care brands; a management services organization; CenterWell Home Health, a home health provider; and OneHome, which manages post-acute patient needs, as well as provides pharmacy and hospice solutions. The company was formerly known as Extendicare Inc. and changed its name to Humana Inc. in April 1974. Humana Inc. was founded in 1961 and is headquartered in Louisville, Kentucky.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Humana Inc reported revenue of $130B in FY2025 versus $83.6B in FY2021, a compound +11.6%/yr. Reported net income was $1.2B in FY2025, compounding −20.2%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +9.4 % · buybacks/dilution +2.5 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
HUM screens 222% overvalued. Compare with UnitedHealth Group →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Here's Why Investors Should Retain Humana Stock for Now
- Humana (HUM) Backs 1,000 Indiana Home Health Aide Scholarships
- Can Humana (HUM) Stay Cheap If Medicare Advantage Margins Tighten?
- Zacks Industry Outlook UnitedHealth, The Cigna, Humana, Centene and Molina
Peer Group
Healthcare Plans · 15 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Healthcare Plans median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 66/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Healthcare Plans stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 30, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| UnitedHealth Group UNH | $395.05 | $292.06 | −26% |
| CVS Health Corporation CVS | $93.06 | $42.25 | −55% |
| Elevance Health, Inc ELV | $399.14 | $426.53 | +7% |
| The Cigna Group CI | $276.08 | $495.42 | +79% |
| Centene Corporation CNC | $64.75 | $111.96 | +73% |
| Molina Healthcare, Inc MOH | $203.06 | $199.31 | −2% |
| Oscar Health, Inc OSCR | $30.93 | $61.86 | +100% |
| Alignment Healthcare, Inc ALHC | $13.52 | $2.37 | −82% |
| Progyny, Inc PGNY | $25.65 | $16.44 | −36% |
| Medi Assist Healthcare Services Limited MEDIASSIST | ₹346.80 | ₹226.12 | −35% |
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