Oscar Health Inc (OSCR) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 21, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Oscar Health Inc stock $69.22, price $33.45, upside +106.9%, quality 39 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.15 – $34.32 · fair‑value band $44.76 – $118.35 · the $33.45 price screens below the $69.22 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
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Oscar Health, Inc. operates as a healthcare technology company in the United States. The company offers health plans to individuals, families, employees, and small group markets.
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It also provides +Oscar platform that power others throughout the healthcare system; Campaign Builder platform, an engagement and recommendation platform for providers and payors; and reinsurance products.
In addition, the company offers brokerage services and enrollment platform for brokers and consumers to shop, buy, and enroll in medical and supplemental health products. The company was formerly known as Mulberry Health Inc. and changed its name to Oscar Health, Inc. in January 2021.
Oscar Health, Inc. was incorporated in 2012 and is headquartered in New York, New York.
Stock analysis
Oscar Health Inc (OSCR) currently trades at $33.45, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $69.22, implying the stock looks roughly 51.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $88.47 per share, and 6 of the 7 models we run sit above the $33.45 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $58.89, and 1 of the 7 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $44.76 (bear) to $118.35 (bull), the price of $33.45 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Oscar Health Inc reported revenue of $11.7B in FY2025 versus $1.9B in FY2021, a compound +57.1%/yr. Reported net income was −$443M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $11.2B Large · P/E ratio 25.9 · P/S ratio 0.73 · EPS (TTM) $1.29 · Net margin 3.6% · Return on equity 34.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) −8.5% · Operating margin 8.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 45 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 208% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −8% fair-value upside, at 107%, OSCR screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$44.76Fair Value $69.22Bull$118.35
Price $33.45 · Upside +106.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.04 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF$59.28$81.44$147.0076
Growth DCF$56.06$88.47$139.2375
5Y Revenue Exit$50.92$79.79$140.0568
All 7 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF$59.28$81.44$147.0076
5Y Revenue Exit$50.92$79.79$140.0568
10Y Revenue Exit$52.66$99.32$127.3865
Multiples
EV/Revenue$43.79$58.89$73.9854
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$1.16$1.56$2.3354
Growth DCF
Growth DCF$56.06$88.47$139.2375
Rev-Margin DCF$55.20$90.03$162.9968
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.86/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+27.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+41.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+81.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+66.3%
’19
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’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−68.8% (2020) → −3.4% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−5.6%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+18.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −7.8% a year for the price and +15.2% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Oscar Health shows strength in membership growth through ACA marketplace expansion and technology-driven medical loss ratio cuts, yet its main weakness remains sustained net losses with negative return on equity.
Main risk: Rising medical costs could trigger operating losses in the second half and erode recent efficiency gains in its ACA-focused insurance operations.
Oscar Health grew membership to nearly three million through ACA marketplace expansion and used its technology platform to cut its medical loss ratio sharply in the first half. The company raised its 2026 earnings outlook on the back of those gains, yet the revised guidance still points to a possible operating loss in the second half if medical costs climb. Our models see the shares as undervalued, but will the efficiency improvements hold against rising claims expenses?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its sector: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median. (Industry “Healthcare Plans” was too small, so the broader sector is used.)Health Care · 2362 stocks
Beats the sector median on 5/13 measures
Overall it trails its sector peers.
Valuation
Quality Score39 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+106.9% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)34.3% · Top 25%
Return on assets−7.0% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)3.6% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)8.0% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)70.4% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.44× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Health Care median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Oscar Health Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/OSCR
Frequently asked questions
Is Oscar Health Inc (OSCR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 22, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $69.22 versus a price of $33.45, about +107% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of OSCR?
Our model-based fair value for Oscar Health Inc is $69.22 (as of Oct 22, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $33.45.
What is the quality score of OSCR?
Oscar Health Inc has a Quality Score of 39/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Oscar Health Inc (OSCR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $69.22 (as of Oct 22, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario $44.76, optimistic scenario $118.35. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Oscar Health Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $69.22, about +107% upside versus a price of $33.45 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $44.76, optimistic scenario $118.35. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Oscar Health Inc (OSCR)?
Oscar Health Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $15.3B (latest available figure, as of Oct 22, 2026).
What growth is priced into Oscar Health Inc (OSCR)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Oscar Health Inc would have to grow free cash flow by -5.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +81.8 % per year. As of Oct 22, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of OSCR use?
Our models discount Oscar Health Inc at 11.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 2.47, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Oscar Health Inc that is -5.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Oscar Health Inc (OSCR) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Oscar Health Inc grew +81.8 % a year. The price currently implies -5.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Oscar Health Inc (OSCR) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Oscar Health Inc (-5.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Oscar Health Inc (OSCR)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.49 %: that much free cash flow Oscar Health Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Oscar Health Inc (OSCR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Oscar Health Inc it is $69.22 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026), against a price of $33.45. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Oscar Health Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 22, 2026, OSCR trades below its calculated fair value: price $33.45, fair value $69.22, a gap of about +107% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of OSCR?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($33.45); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($69.22). For Oscar Health Inc the two are $35.77 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Oscar Health Inc worth?
The market values Oscar Health Inc at about $11.2B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 22, 2026). Per share that is $33.45; our models calculate a fair value of $69.22 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about OSCR?
Our models span a range for Oscar Health Inc: cautious scenario $44.76, base $69.22, optimistic $118.35 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026, price $33.45). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of OSCR?
Oscar Health Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 25.9 (as of Oct 22, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $69.22 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 11.4, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 13.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Oscar Health Inc (OSCR)?
Balance-sheet figures for Oscar Health Inc (as of Oct 22, 2026): return on equity 34.3%, debt of 0.44 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 39/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is OSCR from its 52-week high?
Oscar Health Inc trades at $33.45, about 3% below its 52-week high of $34.32 and 208% above the low of $10.85 (as of Oct 21, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $69.22 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Oscar Health Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value UnitedHealth Group, CVS Health Corporation, Elevance Health, Inc, The Cigna Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Oscar Health Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 22, 2026: price $33.45, calculated fair value $69.22 (+107%), Quality Score 39/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of OSCR calculated?
We run Oscar Health Inc through 7 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $69.22, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.6 % above its aggregate fair value. Oscar Health Inc currently trades 52 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Oscar Health Inc (OSCR)?
The closing price on Oct 21, 2026 was $33.45. Our model-based fair value is $69.22, about +107% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Oscar Health Inc right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (39/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($44.76). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The model range is unusually wide ($44.76 to $118.35). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Key figures of Oscar Health Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Oscar Health Inc (OSCR)?
The market capitalisation of Oscar Health Inc is $11.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Oscar Health Inc (OSCR)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Oscar Health Inc is 0.73 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Oscar Health Inc (OSCR)?
Earnings per share at Oscar Health Inc are $1.29 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 25.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Oscar Health Inc (OSCR)?
The net margin of Oscar Health Inc is 3.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Oscar Health Inc (OSCR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Oscar Health Inc is 34.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Oscar Health Inc (OSCR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Oscar Health Inc is −8.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Oscar Health Inc (OSCR)?
The operating margin of Oscar Health Inc is 8.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Oscar Health Inc (OSCR)?
Revenue at Oscar Health Inc is growing +70.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +41.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Oscar Health Inc (OSCR)?
Earnings per share at Oscar Health Inc are growing +126% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Oscar Health Inc (OSCR) hold?
Oscar Health Inc holds more cash than debt, $2.3B net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Oct 22, 2026