UGI Corporation (UGI) Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · US · Market cap $7.7B · ISIN US9026811052
What is UGI Corporation really worth?
UGI Corporation
UGI · US
A solid business, but trading 41% above our fair value of $26.72.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 31, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 5 days ago
Share price +4.3% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The model range is unusually wide ($21.42 to $61.25). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 31, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $17.60 – $39.79 · fair‑value band $21.42 – $61.25 · the $37.80 price screens above the $26.72 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 31, 2026.
Analysis
UGI Corporation (UGI) currently trades at $37.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $26.72, implying the stock looks roughly 41.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $51.00 per share, and 9 of the 23 models we run sit above the $37.80 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $14.93, and 14 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, UGI Corporation generated revenue of $7.4B at a net margin of 8.7%. Revenue grew 0.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 12.3%. Net debt stands at $7.2B. Fundamentals as of Aug 31, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $21.42 (bear case) to $61.25 (bull case); at $37.80, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 22% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −20% fair-value upside, at −29%, UGI screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 11 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $1.25 per share, which is 4.7 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($51.00) versus Asset-Based ($14.93). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (77).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 31, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 49 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 60
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
UGI Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the distribution, storage, transportation, and marketing of energy products and related services in the United States and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Utilities, Midstream & Marketing, UGI International, and AmeriGas Propane.
Full company description
UGI Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the distribution, storage, transportation, and marketing of energy products and related services in the United States and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Utilities, Midstream & Marketing, UGI International, and AmeriGas Propane. It distributes propane to approximately 801 million residential, commercial/industrial, motor fuel, agricultural, and wholesale customers. The company distributes liquefied petroleum gases (LPG) to residential, commercial, industrial, agricultural, wholesale and automobile fuel customers; and provides logistics, storage, and other services to third-party LPG distributors. In addition, it engages in the retail sale of natural gas, liquid fuels, and electricity to approximately 10,800 residential, commercial, and industrial customers. Further, the company distributes natural gas to approximately 694,000 customers in eastern and central Pennsylvania counties through its distribution system of approximately 12,700 miles of gas mains; and supplies electricity to approximately 62,900 customers in northeastern Pennsylvania through 2,700 miles of lines and 14 substations. Additionally, it operates electric generation facilities; natural gas liquefaction, storage, and vaporization facility; propane storage and propane-air mixing stations; and rail transshipment terminals. It manages natural gas pipeline and storage contracts; develops, owns, and operates pipelines, gathering infrastructure, and gas storage facilities. UGI Corporation was incorporated in 1882 and is headquartered in King of Prussia, Pennsylvania.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
UGI Corporation reported revenue of $7.3B in FY2025 versus $7.4B in FY2021, a compound −0.5%/yr. Reported net income was $678M in FY2025, compounding −17.5%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +0.5 % · buybacks/dilution −2.2 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
UGI screens 41% overvalued. Compare with Naturgy Energy Group →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- UGI Corp (UGI) Trades at Just 11x Earnings: Is It a Buy?
- SPH vs. UGI: Which Propane Stock Has More Fuel for Growth?
- UGI (UGI) Closed 9.4% Higher on a Reported KKR Bid. Does $42.50 Fully Value Its AI-Power Opportunity?
- Is UGI (UGI) Undervalued On Third Quarter Earnings And Its Dividend Update?
Peer Group
Utilities - Regulated Gas · 105 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Regulated Gas median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 35/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Regulated Gas stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 31, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Naturgy Energy Group NTGY | €29.60 | €31.58 | +7% |
| Atmos Energy Corporation ATO | $166.65 | $85.67 | −49% |
| NiSource Inc NI | $40.96 | $28.59 | −30% |
| Uniper SE UN0 | €47.45 | €48.32 | +2% |
| The Hong Kong and China Gas Company 0003 | HK$7.31 | HK$4.79 | −34% |
| GAIL (India) Limited GAIL | ₹171.10 | ₹130.21 | −24% |
| Italgas S.p.A IG | €8.67 | €8.63 | −1% |
| Adani Total Gas Limited ATGL | ₹654.05 | ₹101.36 | −85% |
| ENN Natural Gas Co 600803 | ¥17.51 | ¥25.71 | +47% |
| Southwest Gas Holdings SWX | $88.69 | $70.67 | −20% |
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