Adani Total Gas Limited (ATGL) Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · IN · Market cap ₹796B (≈ $8.4B) · ISIN INE399L01023
What is Adani Total Gas Limited really worth?
Structural break: The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Below-average quality, and trading another 504% above our fair value of ₹101.36.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 17, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated 19 days ago
Share price −7.3% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (₹126.70). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (46/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ₹467.74 – ₹3,914 · fair‑value band ₹76.02 – ₹126.70 · the ₹612.35 price screens above the ₹101.36 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 17, 2026.
Analysis
Adani Total Gas Limited (ATGL) currently trades at ₹612.35, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹101.36, implying the stock looks roughly 504.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ₹137.24 per share, and 0 of the 16 models we run sit above the ₹612.35 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ₹29.64, and 16 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Over the trailing twelve months, Adani Total Gas Limited generated revenue of ₹58.9B at a net margin of 11.1%. Revenue grew 16.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 14.5%. Net debt stands at ₹17.5B. Fundamentals as of Aug 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ₹76.02 (bear case) to ₹126.70 (bull case); at ₹612.35, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and 32% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −20% fair-value upside, at −83%, ATGL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2026 figures, and about 5 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly ₹2.47 per share, which is 2.4 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (₹137.24) versus Dividend Discount (₹4.30). Highest evidence: EPV (74).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 47 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 48
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Adani Total Gas Limited engages in the city gas distribution (CGD) business in India. The company supplies piped natural gas and compressed natural gas to the domestic, commercial, industrial, and transportation sectors. It also provides biogas, biofuel, biomass, LCNG, HCNG, EV, and hydrogen.
Full company description
Adani Total Gas Limited engages in the city gas distribution (CGD) business in India. The company supplies piped natural gas and compressed natural gas to the domestic, commercial, industrial, and transportation sectors. It also provides biogas, biofuel, biomass, LCNG, HCNG, EV, and hydrogen. In addition, the company manufactures various equipment; and offers value-added services related to the CGD business. The company was formerly known as Adani Gas Limited and changed its name to Adani Total Gas Limited in January 2021. Adani Total Gas Limited was founded in 2004 and is based in Ahmedabad, India.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Adani Total Gas Limited reported revenue of ₹58.9B in FY2026 versus ₹30.4B in FY2022, a compound +18.0%/yr. Reported net income was ₹6.6B in FY2026, compounding +6.5%/yr from FY2022.
of which total revenue +17.6 % · buybacks/dilution −14.9 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
ATGL screens 504% overvalued. Compare with Naturgy Energy Group →
Peer Group
Utilities - Regulated Gas · 105 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Regulated Gas median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Regulated Gas stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Naturgy Energy Group NTGY | €29.60 | €31.58 | +7% |
| Atmos Energy Corporation ATO | $166.65 | $85.67 | −49% |
| NiSource Inc NI | $40.96 | $28.59 | −30% |
| Uniper SE UN0 | €47.45 | €48.32 | +2% |
| The Hong Kong and China Gas Company 0003 | HK$7.31 | HK$4.79 | −34% |
| GAIL (India) Limited GAIL | ₹171.10 | ₹130.21 | −24% |
| Italgas S.p.A IG | €8.67 | €8.63 | −1% |
| ENN Natural Gas Co 600803 | ¥17.51 | ¥25.71 | +47% |
| UGI Corporation UGI | $38.01 | $26.72 | −30% |
| Southwest Gas Holdings SWX | $88.69 | $70.67 | −20% |
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