Naturgy Energy Group (NTGY) Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · ES · Market cap €26.7B
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated yesterday
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from €35.80 to €31.58 (−11.8%) since Jul 18, 2026. Share price +1.0% over the past month.
A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.
What matters now
- The model range is unusually wide (€18.13 to €47.64). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €17.07 – €29.94 · fair‑value band €18.13 – €47.64 · the €29.04 price screens below the €31.58 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Naturgy Energy Group (NTGY) currently trades at €29.04, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €31.58, implying the stock looks roughly 8.8% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Naturgy Energy Group generated revenue of €19.1B at a net margin of 10.7%. Revenue declined 6.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 22.0%. Net debt stands at €13.5B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €18.13 (bear case) to €47.64 (bull case); at €29.04, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 22% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at 9%, NTGY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (€39.31) versus Asset-Based (€6.76). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 52 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 68
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Naturgy Energy Group, S.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the supply, liquefaction, regasification, transport, storage, distribution, and sale of gas. It operates through Distribution Networks and Energy Markets segments.
Full company description
Naturgy Energy Group, S.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the supply, liquefaction, regasification, transport, storage, distribution, and sale of gas. It operates through Distribution Networks and Energy Markets segments. The company is involved in the regulated gas and electricity distribution; management of transport infrastructure; trade and shipping of liquefied natural gas; supply, procurement, and management of other gas infrastructure; and management of gas pipeline. It also manages conventional thermal generation facilities; facilities and generation projects using wind energy, mini hydro, solar and cogeneration, as well as hydroelectric power; photovoltaic generation projects; and renewable electricity generation projects. In addition, the company is involved in renewable gas projects, such as biomethane and green hydrogen; supply of gas, electricity and services to end customers. It operates in Spain, Australia, the United States, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Mexico, Panama, the rest of Latin America, and the rest of Europe. The company was formerly known as Gas Natural SDG, S.A. and changed its name to Naturgy Energy Group, S.A. in June 2018. Naturgy Energy Group, S.A. was incorporated in 1843 and is based in Madrid, Spain.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Naturgy Energy Group reported revenue of €19.5B in FY2025 versus €22.1B in FY2021, a compound −3.2%/yr. Reported net income was €2.0B in FY2025, compounding +13.6%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue −2.1 pp · buybacks/dilution +0.4 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Peer Group
Utilities - Regulated Gas · 104 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Regulated Gas median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Regulated Gas stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atmos Energy Corporation ATO | $169.59 | $85.67 | -49% |
| NiSource Inc NI | $42.01 | $28.59 | -32% |
| Uniper SE UN0 | €47.45 | €48.32 | +2% |
| The Hong Kong and China Gas Company 0003 | HK$6.76 | HK$4.79 | -29% |
| GAIL (India) Limited GAIL | ₹177.95 | ₹130.21 | -27% |
| Adani Total Gas Limited ATGL | ₹660.35 | ₹101.36 | -85% |
| ENN Natural Gas Co 600803 | ¥17.32 | ¥25.71 | +48% |
| ENN Energy Holdings 2688 | HK$47.16 | HK$107.98 | +129% |
| China Suntien Green Energy Corporation 600956 | ¥7.26 | ¥7.37 | +2% |
| China Resources Gas Group 1193 | HK$15.86 | HK$28.25 | +78% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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