NiSource Inc (NI) Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · US · Market cap $22.5B · ISIN US65473P1057
What is NiSource Inc really worth?
NiSource Inc
NI · US
Below-average quality, and trading another 44% above our fair value of $28.59.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Sep 3, 2026
From 15 valuation models · updated 2 days ago
Share price −7.6% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($37.17). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (41/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- A fairly wide model range ($20.01 to $37.17) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $20.40 – $49.08 · fair‑value band $20.01 – $37.17 · the $41.15 price screens above the $28.59 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 3, 2026.
Analysis
NiSource Inc (NI) currently trades at $41.15, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $28.59, implying the stock looks roughly 43.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $31.21 per share, and 0 of the 15 models we run sit above the $41.15 price. Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $6.38, and 15 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, NiSource Inc generated revenue of $6.8B at a net margin of 14.1%. Revenue grew 8.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.1%. Net debt stands at $16.1B. Fundamentals as of Sep 3, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $20.01 (bear case) to $37.17 (bull case); at $41.15, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −20% fair-value upside, at −31%, NI screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $0.7782 per share, which is 2.7 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 15 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($31.21) versus Economic Profit ($6.38). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 3, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 39 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 51
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
NiSource Inc., an energy holding company, operates as a regulated natural gas and electric utility company in the United States. It operates in two segments, Columbia Operations and NIPSCO Operations.
Full company description
NiSource Inc., an energy holding company, operates as a regulated natural gas and electric utility company in the United States. It operates in two segments, Columbia Operations and NIPSCO Operations. The company provides natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers through approximately 37,300 miles of distribution main pipeline and the associated individual customer service lines; and 310 miles of transmission main pipeline in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Kentucky, and Maryland. It also generates, transmits, and distributes electricity to approximately 0.5 million customers in various counties in the northern part of Indiana, as well as engages in wholesale electric and transmission transactions. It owns and operates steam coal generating stations in Wheatfield and Michigan City; combined cycle gas turbine in West Terre Haute; natural gas generating units in Wheatfield; hydro generating plants in Carroll County and White County; wind generating units in White County; and solar generating units in Sullivan County, Gibson County, Jasper County, and White County. The company was formerly known as NIPSCO Industries, Inc. and changed its name to NiSource Inc. in April 1999. NiSource Inc. was founded in 1847 and is headquartered in Merrillville, Indiana.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
NiSource Inc reported revenue of $6.6B in FY2025 versus $4.9B in FY2021, a compound +7.9%/yr. Reported net income was $930M in FY2025, compounding +12.3%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +1.3 % · buybacks/dilution −3.9 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
NI screens 44% overvalued. Compare with Naturgy Energy Group →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- NiSource (NI): A Costly Quarter Masks A Bigger Bet
- NiSource Declares Common Stock Dividend
- The Bull Case For NiSource (NI) Could Change Following Q2 Profit Drop Despite Higher Revenue
- NiSource (NI) Reports Mixed Q2 Results, Is It Still 15% Below Fair Value?
Peer Group
Utilities - Regulated Gas · 105 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Regulated Gas median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Regulated Gas stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 3, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Naturgy Energy Group NTGY | €29.60 | €31.58 | +7% |
| Atmos Energy Corporation ATO | $166.65 | $85.67 | −49% |
| Uniper SE UN0 | €47.45 | €48.32 | +2% |
| The Hong Kong and China Gas Company 0003 | HK$7.31 | HK$4.79 | −34% |
| GAIL (India) Limited GAIL | ₹171.10 | ₹130.21 | −24% |
| Italgas S.p.A IG | €8.67 | €8.63 | −1% |
| Adani Total Gas Limited ATGL | ₹654.05 | ₹101.36 | −85% |
| ENN Natural Gas Co 600803 | ¥17.51 | ¥25.71 | +47% |
| UGI Corporation UGI | $38.01 | $26.72 | −30% |
| Southwest Gas Holdings SWX | $88.69 | $70.67 | −20% |
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