Hong Kong and China Gas Co Ltd (0003) Fair Value & Analysis

Utilities · HK · Market cap HK$121B (≈ $15.5B) · ISIN HK0003000038

What is Hong Kong and China Gas Co Ltd really worth?

HK Hong Kong and China Gas Co Ltd 0003 · HK

PriceHK$7.10

Fair ValueHK$4.79

Upside−32.5%

Quality54/100

A solid business, but trading 48% above our fair value of HK$4.79.

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Strengths

✓Solidly profitable · 10.5% net margin

✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow

Risks

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +5.8 %/yr)

!Trails peers (5/15)

!Moderate moat 53/100

!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain

For context

·4.93% dividend yield

Evidence: Low Range HK$3.31 – HK$5.99

Fair value as of: Aug 28, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 8 days ago

Share price +4.0% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$5.99). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
A fairly wide model range (HK$3.31 to HK$5.99) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 28, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$4.58 – HK$10.32 · fair‑value band HK$3.31 – HK$5.99 · the HK$7.10 price screens above the HK$4.79 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 28, 2026.

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Analysis

Hong Kong and China Gas Co Ltd (0003) currently trades at HK$7.10, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$4.79, implying the stock looks roughly 48.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector. Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of HK$5.49 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the HK$7.10 price. Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at HK$1.74, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Over the trailing twelve months, Hong Kong and China Gas Co Ltd generated revenue of HK$54.3B at a net margin of 10.5%. Revenue declined 4.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.6%. Net debt stands at HK$54.5B. Fundamentals as of Aug 28, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$3.31 (bear case) to HK$5.99 (bull case); at HK$7.10, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −20% fair-value upside, at −33%, 0003 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence

Highest evidence

Residual Income HK$2.79 HK$3.07 HK$4.08 76

FCF DCF HK$1.38 HK$3.36 HK$6.44 75

Growth DCF HK$1.42 HK$3.15 HK$5.67 74

All 26 models by family

DCF Models

FCF DCF HK$1.38 HK$3.36 HK$6.44 75

Owner Earnings HK$0.7300 HK$2.33 HK$4.82 70

5Y Revenue Exit HK$1.67 HK$4.06 HK$7.14 69

5Y EBITDA Exit HK$1.99 HK$4.67 HK$7.83 72

5Y P/E Exit HK$1.59 HK$3.91 HK$6.37 68

10Y Revenue Exit HK$1.41 HK$3.58 HK$6.57 63

10Y EBITDA Exit HK$1.74 HK$4.01 HK$7.09 65

10Y P/E Exit HK$1.48 HK$3.48 HK$5.97 61

Earnings-Based

Graham-Dodd HK$2.07 HK$6.92 HK$9.26 64

Lynch FV HK$1.57 HK$2.24 HK$2.91 61

PEG = 1.0 HK$1.57 HK$2.24 HK$2.91 57

EPV HK$1.21 HK$1.74 HK$2.21 73

Dividend Discount

Gordon GGM HK$3.21 HK$6.68 HK$10.60 66

DDM Multi-Stage HK$3.21 HK$5.49 HK$7.01 66

Multiples

P/E Multiple HK$4.12 HK$5.49 HK$6.86 63

P/S Multiple HK$3.89 HK$5.18 HK$6.48 58

P/B Multiple HK$3.89 HK$5.18 HK$6.48 55

EV/EBIT HK$2.93 HK$4.56 HK$6.20 65

EV/EBITDA HK$2.82 HK$4.42 HK$6.02 66

EV/Revenue HK$1.99 HK$3.69 HK$5.39 52

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) HK$1.59 HK$2.13 HK$3.18 54

Growth DCF

Growth DCF HK$1.42 HK$3.15 HK$5.67 74

Rev-Margin DCF HK$1.67 HK$4.04 HK$6.81 69

Economic Profit

Residual Income HK$2.79 HK$3.07 HK$4.08 76

ROIC Compounder HK$1.21 HK$1.74 HK$2.21 72

Growth Earnings

Growth-Adj P/E HK$3.55 HK$5.08 HK$6.60 67

Widest divergence: Dividend Discount (HK$5.49) versus Economic Profit (HK$1.74). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 21.7 as of Jul 1, 2026

P/S ratio 2.27 P/E × margin

EPS (TTM) HK$0.1600 price ÷ EPS = P/E 21.7

Dividend yield 4.9%

Net margin 10.5% FY2025

Return on equity 9.6% TTM

More key figures

Profitability

Return on assets (EBIT) 8.5% avg 5y

Operating margin 13.0% TTM

Growth

Revenue (TTM) HK$54.3B TTM

Revenue growth (YoY) −4.2% 3y avg −3.8%

EPS growth (YoY) +2.1%

Balance sheet & cash flow

Free cash flow HK$5.4B FY2025

Net debt HK$54.5B FY2025 · ≈ 10.1 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 28, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 54/100

Of which business quality 50 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 60

Profitability 31

Margins and returns on capital today

Quality Growth 30

Are margins and returns improving?

Cashflow 59

Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit

Fin. Strength 33

Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk

Investment 86

Disciplined investing over empire-building

Low Volatility 96

Calm price path (market factor)

Momentum 41

Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)

52W Momentum 54

Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

Net Issuance 82

Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

The Hong Kong and China Gas Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, produces, distributes, and markets gas, water supply and energy services in Hong Kong and Mainland China.

Full company description

The Hong Kong and China Gas Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, produces, distributes, and markets gas, water supply and energy services in Hong Kong and Mainland China. It is involved in the provision of renewable energy solutions, piped city-gas projects, gas supply chain, water supply, and urban waste utilization projects, as well as new energy exploration and utilization ventures. The company also offers piping installation services; piping design services for different properties and retrofit projects; kitchen design solutions; kitchen cabinets, residential kitchen appliances, residential gas water heaters, clubhouse dehumidifiers, clubhouse pool heating, and clubhouse bbq stoves; and automatic meter reading systems. In addition, it provides network connectivity, data center, and ICT services, as well as engineering, procurement, and construction services. Further, the company offers consultancy and engineering contractor services, including utilities installation, infrastructure construction, and civil and building services engineering for public and private projects; and designs and manufactures gas meters and metering systems. Additionally, it is involved in water supply and wastewater treatment activities; green energy businesses; property development and investment activities; manufacturing of polyethylene piping and fittings; and the software development, solution implementation, and systems integration activities, as well as food and green waste treatment project. The Hong Kong and China Gas Company Limited was founded in 1862 and is headquartered in North Point, Hong Kong.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Hong Kong and China Gas Co Ltd reported revenue of HK$54.3B in FY2025 versus HK$53.6B in FY2021, a compound +0.4%/yr. Reported net income was HK$5.7B in FY2025, compounding +2.6%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 40/100

Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.

Latest Revenue (FY 2025)

HK$54.3B

Latest YoY

−2.1%

Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

−3.8%

Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+5.8%

Avg. revenue growth/yr (26Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+9.0%

Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.

+3.5% (−1.4 + 4.9)

Revenue +0.4%/yr

FY21 HK$53.6B

FY22 HK$61.0B

FY23 HK$57.0B

FY24 HK$55.5B

FY25 HK$54.3B

Net income +2.6%/yr

FY21 HK$5.1B

FY22 HK$5.4B

FY23 HK$6.2B

FY24 HK$5.7B

FY25 HK$5.7B

Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) −2.5 % p.a.

Revenue per share +7.1 %

of which total revenue +7.1 % · buybacks/dilution +0.0 %

EBIT margin −1.6 %

Tax rate −0.8 %

Residual (interest, one-offs) −6.8 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

0003 screens 48% overvalued. Compare with Naturgy Energy Group →

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Hong Kong and China Gas Co Ltd · Fair Value
HK$4.79 −48%Fair Value
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<a href="https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0003" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener" style="display:inline-flex;align-items:center;gap:12px;box-sizing:border-box;font-family:system-ui,-apple-system,Segoe UI,Roboto,sans-serif;text-decoration:none;background:#0f1814;color:#eaf2ed;border:1px solid #2a3a30;border-radius:12px;padding:12px 16px;max-width:360px"><span style="line-height:1.35"><span style="font-size:12px;color:#9fb0a8">Hong Kong and China Gas Co Ltd · Fair Value</span><br><b style="font-size:20px">HK$4.79</b> <span style="color:#e0816f;font-weight:700;font-size:14px">−48%</span></span><span style="font-size:11px;color:#7BB290;font-weight:700;margin-left:auto;text-align:right;line-height:1.3">Fair&nbsp;Value<br>Calculator&nbsp;→</span></a>

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hong Kong and China Gas Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0003

Peer Group

Utilities - Regulated Gas · 105 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 54 · Above median

Fair Value upside −33% · Bottom 25%

Return on equity (TTM) 10% · Above median

Return on assets 3% · Below median

Net margin (TTM) 10% · Above median

Operating margin (TTM) 13% · Above median

Revenue growth −4% · Below median

Dividend yield (TTM) 4.9% · Above median

Debt / equity 0.73× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Regulated Gas median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 21.7× · Pricier than median

P/B 2.04× · Pricier than median

P/S (TTM) 2.23× · Pricier than median

P/FCF 2.9× · Pricier than median

EV/EBITDA 13.4× · Pricier than 75% of peers

PEG 2.85× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

This stock

Sector peers

VALUE0 · sector 27

FUTURE0 · sector 0

PAST38 · sector 35

HEALTH64 · sector 87

DIVIDEND99 · sector 71

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Utilities - Regulated Gas stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 28, 2026).

Stock	Price	Fair Value	vs Fair Value
Naturgy Energy Group NTGY	€29.60	€31.58	+7%
Atmos Energy Corporation ATO	$166.65	$85.67	−49%
NiSource Inc NI	$40.96	$28.59	−30%
Uniper SE UN0	€47.45	€48.32	+2%
GAIL (India) Limited GAIL	₹171.10	₹130.21	−24%
Italgas S.p.A IG	€8.67	€8.63	−1%
Adani Total Gas Limited ATGL	₹654.05	₹101.36	−85%
ENN Natural Gas Co 600803	¥17.51	¥25.71	+47%
UGI Corporation UGI	$38.01	$26.72	−30%
Southwest Gas Holdings SWX	$88.69	$70.67	−20%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Hong Kong and China Gas Co Ltd (0003) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Aug 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$4.79 versus a price of HK$7.10, about −33% upside (overvalued).

What is the fair value of 0003?

Our model-based fair value for Hong Kong and China Gas Co Ltd is HK$4.79 (as of Aug 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$7.10.

What is the quality score of 0003?

Hong Kong and China Gas Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the revenue of Hong Kong and China Gas Co Ltd (0003)?

Hong Kong and China Gas Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$54.3B (latest available figure, as of Aug 28, 2026).

What is the net profit margin of 0003?

The net profit margin of Hong Kong and China Gas Co Ltd is about 10.5%, meaning it keeps roughly 10.5% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

Does Hong Kong and China Gas Co Ltd pay a dividend?

Hong Kong and China Gas Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.93% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 28, 2026).

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