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Italgas SpA (IG) Fair Value & Analysis

Utilities · IT · Market cap €8.8B · ISIN IT0005211237

What is Italgas SpA really worth?

IS Italgas SpA IG · MI
Price€8.39
Fair Value€7.34
Upside−12.6%
Quality32/100

Below-average quality, and trading another 14% above our fair value of €7.34.

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Strengths

Solidly profitable · 18.7% net margin
Wide moat 67/100

Risks

!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +11.3 %/yr)
!High debt · generates free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (7/15)
!Weak on valuation: 17 out of 100

For context

·5.15% dividend yield
Evidence: High Range €5.50 – €9.96

Fair value as of: Aug 18, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 17 days ago

Share price −7.7% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • A fairly wide model range (€5.50 to €9.96) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
  • The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin.
  • The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

€10.72 €3.79 Fair Value €7.34 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 18, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €3.79 – €10.72 · fair‑value band €5.50 – €9.96 · the €8.39 price screens above the €7.34 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 18, 2026.

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Analysis

Italgas SpA (IG) currently trades at €8.39, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €7.34, implying the stock looks roughly 14.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 32/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of €14.56 per share, and 9 of the 24 models we run sit above the €8.39 price. Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at €1.57, and 15 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Italgas SpA generated revenue of €3.7B at a net margin of 18.4%. Revenue grew 1.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 19.5%. Net debt stands at €10.8B. Fundamentals as of Aug 18, 2026

Our scenario range runs from €5.50 (bear case) to €9.96 (bull case); at €8.39, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 28% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −24% fair-value upside, at −13%, IG screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly €0.1881 per share, which is 2.6 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF best evidence €3.24 €17.40 77
Growth DCF €3.86 €13.91 75
Owner Earnings €4.34 73
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF best evidence €3.24 €17.40 77
Owner Earnings €4.34 73
5Y Revenue Exit €2.39 €10.43 69
5Y EBITDA Exit €1.66 €13.31 €28.91 67
5Y P/E Exit €5.93 €15.18 68
10Y Revenue Exit €2.24 €11.57 64
10Y EBITDA Exit €0.2000 €10.41 €27.81 58
10Y P/E Exit €4.89 €15.75 61
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd €4.50 €26.23 €36.51 63
Lynch FV €7.42 €10.60 €13.78 61
PEG = 1.0 €7.42 €10.60 €13.78 57
EPV €0.0300 €1.57 €2.90 64
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM €3.01 €6.00 €9.09 67
DDM Multi-Stage €3.01 €5.19 €6.34 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple €8.93 €11.91 €14.88 63
P/S Multiple €6.47 €8.63 €10.79 58
P/B Multiple €5.07 €6.76 €8.45 55
EV/EBIT €3.69 €8.16 €12.63 62
EV/EBITDA €4.33 €9.02 €13.70 64
EV/Revenue €1.50 50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €1.88 €2.52 €3.76 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF €3.86 €13.91 75
Rev-Margin DCF €2.16 €9.73 69
Economic Profit
Residual Income €4.16 €5.30 €14.11 67
ROIC Compounder €0.0300 €1.57 €2.90 64
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E €10.19 €14.56 €18.93 67

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (€14.56) versus Economic Profit (€1.57). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (77).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 12.0
P/S ratio 2.30 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) €0.7000 price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.0
Dividend yield 5.1% payout 61.7%
Net margin 19.2% FY2025
Return on equity 19.1% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 5.8% avg 5y
Operating margin 27.4% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) €3.9B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +30.6% 3y avg +17.1%
EPS growth (YoY) +1.4%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow €538M FY2025
Net debt €10.8B FY2025 · ≈ 20.1 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 32/100

Of which business quality 33 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 52

Profitability 43
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 50
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 67
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 18
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 1
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 86
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 34
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 43
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Italgas S.p.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the distribution of natural gas in Italy, Greece, and Other European Union countries. It operates through Gas distribution, Water Service, and Energy Efficiency segments. The company involved in metering activities and the transportation of gas to households, enterprises, etc.

Full company description

Italgas S.p.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the distribution of natural gas in Italy, Greece, and Other European Union countries. It operates through Gas distribution, Water Service, and Energy Efficiency segments. The company involved in metering activities and the transportation of gas to households, enterprises, etc. It also engages in collection, adduction, and distribution of water for civil use, drains, and the purification of wastewater. The company operated a distribution network of 156,655 kilometers and water distribution network of 6,300 kilometers. Italgas S.p.A. was founded in 1837 and is based in Milan, Italy.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Italgas SpA reported revenue of €3.5B in FY2025 versus €2.1B in FY2021, a compound +13.7%/yr. Reported net income was €672M in FY2025, compounding +16.7%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 80/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
€3.5B
Latest YoY
+41.5%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+17.1%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+11.3%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (12Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+8.5%
Value creation/yr (5Y) Earnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+11.9% (6.8 + 5.1)
Revenue +13.7%/yr
FY21 €2.1B
FY22 €2.2B
FY23 €1.8B
FY24 €2.5B
FY25 €3.5B
Net income +16.7%/yr
FY21 €363M
FY22 €407M
FY23 €440M
FY24 €479M
FY25 €672M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2013-2023) −11.5 % p.a.
Revenue per share −8.3 %

of which total revenue +5.2 % · buybacks/dilution −12.8 %

EBIT margin −2.6 %
Tax rate +0.8 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) −1.6 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

IG screens 14% overvalued. Compare with Naturgy Energy Group →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Italgas SpA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/IG

Earlier news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Utilities - Regulated Gas · 105 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 32 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −13% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 19% · Top 25%
Return on assets 4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 19% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 27% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 31% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 5.1% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 2.71× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Regulated Gas median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 12.0× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 2.69× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 2.65× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 19.1× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 10.0× · Pricier than median
PEG 2.82× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE17 · sector 27
FUTURE100 · sector 0
PAST76 · sector 35
HEALTH0 · sector 87
DIVIDEND100 · sector 71

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Utilities - Regulated Gas stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 18, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Naturgy Energy Group NTGY €29.60 €31.58 +7%
Atmos Energy Corporation ATO $166.65 $85.67 −49%
NiSource Inc NI $40.96 $28.59 −30%
Uniper SE UN0 €47.45 €48.32 +2%
The Hong Kong and China Gas Company 0003 HK$7.31 HK$4.79 −34%
GAIL (India) Limited GAIL ₹171.10 ₹130.21 −24%
Adani Total Gas Limited ATGL ₹654.05 ₹101.36 −85%
ENN Natural Gas Co 600803 ¥17.51 ¥25.71 +47%
UGI Corporation UGI $38.01 $26.72 −30%
Southwest Gas Holdings SWX $88.69 $70.67 −20%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Italgas SpA (IG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €7.34 versus a price of €8.39, about −13% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of IG?
Our model-based fair value for Italgas SpA is €7.34 (as of Aug 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €8.39.
What is the quality score of IG?
Italgas SpA has a Quality Score of 32/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Italgas SpA (IG)?
Italgas SpA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €3.7B (latest available figure, as of Aug 18, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of IG?
The net profit margin of Italgas SpA is about 18.4%, meaning it keeps roughly 18.4% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Italgas SpA pay a dividend?
Italgas SpA currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.15% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 18, 2026).
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