Italgas SpA (IG) Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · IT · Market cap €8.8B · ISIN IT0005211237
What is Italgas SpA really worth?
Below-average quality, and trading another 14% above our fair value of €7.34.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 18, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 17 days ago
Share price −7.7% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- A fairly wide model range (€5.50 to €9.96) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin.
- The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €3.79 – €10.72 · fair‑value band €5.50 – €9.96 · the €8.39 price screens above the €7.34 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 18, 2026.
Analysis
Italgas SpA (IG) currently trades at €8.39, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €7.34, implying the stock looks roughly 14.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 32/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of €14.56 per share, and 9 of the 24 models we run sit above the €8.39 price. Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at €1.57, and 15 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Italgas SpA generated revenue of €3.7B at a net margin of 18.4%. Revenue grew 1.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 19.5%. Net debt stands at €10.8B. Fundamentals as of Aug 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €5.50 (bear case) to €9.96 (bull case); at €8.39, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 28% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −24% fair-value upside, at −13%, IG screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly €0.1881 per share, which is 2.6 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (€14.56) versus Economic Profit (€1.57). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (77).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 33 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 52
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Italgas S.p.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the distribution of natural gas in Italy, Greece, and Other European Union countries. It operates through Gas distribution, Water Service, and Energy Efficiency segments. The company involved in metering activities and the transportation of gas to households, enterprises, etc.
Full company description
Italgas S.p.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the distribution of natural gas in Italy, Greece, and Other European Union countries. It operates through Gas distribution, Water Service, and Energy Efficiency segments. The company involved in metering activities and the transportation of gas to households, enterprises, etc. It also engages in collection, adduction, and distribution of water for civil use, drains, and the purification of wastewater. The company operated a distribution network of 156,655 kilometers and water distribution network of 6,300 kilometers. Italgas S.p.A. was founded in 1837 and is based in Milan, Italy.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Italgas SpA reported revenue of €3.5B in FY2025 versus €2.1B in FY2021, a compound +13.7%/yr. Reported net income was €672M in FY2025, compounding +16.7%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +5.2 % · buybacks/dilution −12.8 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
IG screens 14% overvalued. Compare with Naturgy Energy Group →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Italgas SpA (ITGGF) (Half Year 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Revenue Growth and ...
- Italgas Finds Gas Distribution’s Boring Superpower
- Is Italgas (BIT:IG) Still Attractive After A 63.5% One-Year Surge?
- Italgas SpA (MIL:IG) Q1 2026 Earnings Report Preview: What to Expect
Peer Group
Utilities - Regulated Gas · 105 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Regulated Gas median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Regulated Gas stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Naturgy Energy Group NTGY | €29.60 | €31.58 | +7% |
| Atmos Energy Corporation ATO | $166.65 | $85.67 | −49% |
| NiSource Inc NI | $40.96 | $28.59 | −30% |
| Uniper SE UN0 | €47.45 | €48.32 | +2% |
| The Hong Kong and China Gas Company 0003 | HK$7.31 | HK$4.79 | −34% |
| GAIL (India) Limited GAIL | ₹171.10 | ₹130.21 | −24% |
| Adani Total Gas Limited ATGL | ₹654.05 | ₹101.36 | −85% |
| ENN Natural Gas Co 600803 | ¥17.51 | ¥25.71 | +47% |
| UGI Corporation UGI | $38.01 | $26.72 | −30% |
| Southwest Gas Holdings SWX | $88.69 | $70.67 | −20% |
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