Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO) Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · US · Market cap $29.7B · ISIN US0495601058
What is Atmos Energy Corporation really worth?
Atmos Energy Corporation
ATO · US
Below-average quality, and trading another 97% above our fair value of $85.67.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 30, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated 6 days ago
Share price −2.0% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($120.72). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (40/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- A fairly wide model range ($52.83 to $120.72) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $77.07 – $191.21 · fair‑value band $52.83 – $120.72 · the $169.12 price screens above the $85.67 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
Analysis
Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO) currently trades at $169.12, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $85.67, implying the stock looks roughly 97.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $114.35 per share, and 0 of the 16 models we run sit above the $169.12 price. Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $32.70, and 16 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Atmos Energy Corporation generated revenue of $4.9B at a net margin of 27.6%. Revenue grew 0.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.6%. Net debt stands at $9.1B. Fundamentals as of Aug 30, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $52.83 (bear case) to $120.72 (bull case); at $169.12, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 15% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −20% fair-value upside, at −49%, ATO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 11 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $4.05 per share, which is 4.7 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($114.35) versus Economic Profit ($32.70). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 30, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 40 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 57
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Atmos Energy Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the regulated natural gas distribution, and pipeline and storage businesses in the United States. It operates through two segments, Distribution, and Pipeline and Storage.
Full company description
Atmos Energy Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the regulated natural gas distribution, and pipeline and storage businesses in the United States. It operates through two segments, Distribution, and Pipeline and Storage. The Distribution segment is involved in the regulated natural gas distribution and related sales operations in eight states. This segment distributes natural gas to approximately 3.4 million residential, commercial, public authority, and industrial customers; and owned 76,000 miles of underground distribution and transmission mains. The Pipeline and Storage segment engages in the pipeline and storage operations. This segment transports natural gas for third parties and manages five underground storage facilities in Texas; provides ancillary services customary to the pipeline industry, including parking arrangements, lending, and inventory sales; and owned 5,700 miles of gas transmission lines. Atmos Energy Corporation was founded in 1906 and is based in Dallas, Texas.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Atmos Energy Corporation reported revenue of $4.7B in FY2025 versus $3.4B in FY2021, a compound +8.4%/yr. Reported net income was $1.2B in FY2025, compounding +15.8%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +2.7 % · buybacks/dilution −4.5 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
ATO screens 97% overvalued. Compare with Naturgy Energy Group →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Why Atmos Energy (ATO) Lost Its Investment Appeal
- Atmos (ATO) Upgraded to Buy: What Does It Mean for the Stock?
- Are Wall Street Analysts Predicting Atmos Energy Stock Will Climb or Sink?
Peer Group
Utilities - Regulated Gas · 105 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Regulated Gas median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Regulated Gas stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 30, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Naturgy Energy Group NTGY | €29.60 | €31.58 | +7% |
| NiSource Inc NI | $40.96 | $28.59 | −30% |
| Uniper SE UN0 | €47.45 | €48.32 | +2% |
| The Hong Kong and China Gas Company 0003 | HK$7.31 | HK$4.79 | −34% |
| GAIL (India) Limited GAIL | ₹171.10 | ₹130.21 | −24% |
| Italgas S.p.A IG | €8.67 | €8.63 | −1% |
| Adani Total Gas Limited ATGL | ₹654.05 | ₹101.36 | −85% |
| ENN Natural Gas Co 600803 | ¥17.51 | ¥25.71 | +47% |
| UGI Corporation UGI | $38.01 | $26.72 | −30% |
| Southwest Gas Holdings SWX | $88.69 | $70.67 | −20% |
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