Trinity Industries Inc (TRN) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $2.8B · ISIN US8965221091
What is Trinity Industries Inc really worth?
Trinity Industries Inc
TRN · US
Below-average quality, trading 34% below our fair value of $42.57.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Sep 5, 2026
From 11 valuation models · updated today
Share price −12.3% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($35.92). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (47/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- A fairly wide model range ($35.92 to $67.65) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $18.20 – $38.07 · fair‑value band $35.92 – $67.65 · the $28.11 price screens below the $42.57 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.
Analysis
Trinity Industries Inc (TRN) currently trades at $28.11, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $42.57, implying the stock looks roughly 34.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $54.12 per share, and 6 of the 11 models we run sit above the $28.11 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $9.08, and 5 of the 11 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Trinity Industries Inc generated revenue of $2.1B at a net margin of 12.4%. Revenue declined 16.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 23.1%. Net debt stands at $5.2B. Fundamentals as of Sep 5, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $35.92 (bear case) to $67.65 (bull case); at $28.11, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 30% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −47% fair-value upside, at 51%, TRN screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $1.32 per share, which is 3.1 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 11 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($54.12) versus Asset-Based ($9.08). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (69).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 5, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 42 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 39
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Trinity Industries, Inc. provides railcar products and services under the TrinityRail trade name in North America. The company operates in two segments, Railcar Leasing and Services Group, and Rail Products Group.
Full company description
Trinity Industries, Inc. provides railcar products and services under the TrinityRail trade name in North America. The company operates in two segments, Railcar Leasing and Services Group, and Rail Products Group. The Railcar Leasing and Services Group segment leases freight and tank railcars; originates and manages railcar leases for third-party investors; and provides fleet leasing, management, and administrative services, as well as railcar maintenance and modification services, and other railcar logistics products and services. As of December 31, 2025, it had a fleet of 101,485 railcars. This segment serves industrial shipper and railroad companies operating in refined products and chemicals, energy, agriculture, construction and metals, and consumer products. The Rail Products Group segment manufactures freight and tank railcars for transporting various liquids, gases, and dry cargo; and manufactures and sells railcars and related parts and components. This segment serves railroads, leasing companies, and industrial shippers of products in the refined products and chemicals, energy, agriculture, construction and metals, and consumer products markets. It sells or leases products and services through its own sales personnel and independent sales representatives. The company was incorporated in 1933 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Trinity Industries Inc reported revenue of $2.2B in FY2025 versus $1.5B in FY2021, a compound +9.2%/yr. Reported net income was $253M in FY2025, compounding +8.6%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue −7.8 % · buybacks/dilution +6.9 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Trinity Industries Q2 Earnings Call Highlights
- Trinity Industries Inc (TRN) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Leasing Strength and Strategic ...
- Trinity (NYSE:TRN) Posts Better-Than-Expected Sales In Q2 CY2026
- Trinity Industries, Inc. Announces Second Quarter 2026 Results
Peer Group
Railroads · 111 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Railroads median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Railroads stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 5, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Union Pacific Corporation UNP | $307.41 | $141.29 | −54% |
| CSX Corporation CSX | $48.99 | $12.62 | −74% |
| Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited CP | $94.12 | $34.33 | −64% |
| Canadian National Railway Company CNR | C$175.06 | C$92.68 | −47% |
| Norfolk Southern Corporation NSC | $332.96 | $114.36 | −66% |
| Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation WAB | $297.57 | $144.80 | −51% |
| Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co 601816 | ¥4.87 | ¥5.65 | +16% |
| MTR Corporation 0066 | HK$32.04 | HK$17.85 | −44% |
| CRRC Corporation 601766 | ¥5.98 | ¥9.53 | +59% |
| Daqin Railway Co 601006 | ¥4.72 | ¥6.22 | +32% |
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