Smurfit WestRock plc (SW) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $22.9B · ISIN IE00028FXN24
What is Smurfit WestRock plc really worth?
Smurfit WestRock plc
SW · US
Below-average quality, and trading another 59% above our fair value of $28.44.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Share price −6.7% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($35.55). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (32/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- A fairly wide model range ($19.63 to $35.55) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $22.65 – $53.36 · fair‑value band $19.63 – $35.55 · the $45.26 price screens above the $28.44 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Smurfit WestRock plc (SW) currently trades at $45.26, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $28.44, implying the stock looks roughly 59.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 32/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $27.62 per share, and 3 of the 26 models we run sit above the $45.26 price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $12.79, and 23 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, Smurfit WestRock plc generated revenue of $31.2B at a net margin of 1.2%. Revenue grew 0.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 2.1%. Net debt stands at $15.1B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $19.63 (bear case) to $35.55 (bull case); at $45.26, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 41% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −35% fair-value upside, at −37%, SW screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount ($27.62) versus Earnings-Based ($12.79). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 34 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 49
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Smurfit Westrock Plc, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, distributes, and sells containerboard, corrugated containers, and other paper-based packaging products in North America, South America, Europe, Asia, Africa, Australia, and internationally.
Full company description
Smurfit Westrock Plc, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, distributes, and sells containerboard, corrugated containers, and other paper-based packaging products in North America, South America, Europe, Asia, Africa, Australia, and internationally. The company produces containerboard and paperboard; packaging of corrugated containers; consumer packaging; and offers solid board, kraft paper, and graphic board, as well as other packaging products, such as solidboard packaging, paper sacks and bag-in-box. It produces linerboard and corrugated medium and paperboard; and other paper-based packaging, such as folding cartons, inserts, labels and displays. The company primarily serves food and beverage, healthcare, beauty and personal care, garden, consumer goods, industrial, and foodservice markets. It markets its products through its own sales force, independent sales representatives, and independent distributors. Smurfit Westrock Plc was founded in 1934 and is headquartered in Dublin, Ireland.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Smurfit WestRock plc reported revenue of $31.2B in FY2025 versus $10.5B in FY2021, a compound +31.3%/yr. Reported net income was $699M in FY2025, compounding −0.2%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +9.7 % · buybacks/dilution −5.5 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
SW screens 59% overvalued. Compare with Packaging Corporation →
Peer Group
Packaging & Containers · 270 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Packaging & Containers median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Packaging & Containers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Packaging Corporation PKG | $233.94 | $122.63 | −48% |
| International Paper Company IP | $36.46 | $21.44 | −41% |
| Amcor plc AMCR | $46.52 | $18.79 | −60% |
| Ball Corporation BALL | $61.67 | $36.57 | −41% |
| Crown Holdings CCK | $119.08 | $118.59 | +0% |
| Avery Dennison Corporation AVY | $173.07 | $113.05 | −35% |
| CCL Industries Inc CCLA | C$93.99 | C$77.64 | −17% |
| Stora Enso Oyj STEAV | €9.74 | €11.42 | +17% |
| SIG Group SIGN | CHF 13.66 | CHF 8.32 | −39% |
| Sonoco Products Company SON | $56.47 | $54.67 | −3% |
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