Ball Corporation (BALL) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $16.4B · ISIN US0584981064
What is Ball Corporation really worth?
Ball Corporation
BALL · US
A solid business, but trading 72% above our fair value of $36.57.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 19, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 16 days ago
Share price −1.3% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The model range is unusually wide ($22.25 to $66.45). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $41.21 – $91.76 · fair‑value band $22.25 – $66.45 · the $62.93 price screens above the $36.57 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 19, 2026.
Analysis
Ball Corporation (BALL) currently trades at $62.93, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $36.57, implying the stock looks roughly 72.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $53.86 per share, and 1 of the 26 models we run sit above the $62.93 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $12.06, and 25 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Ball Corporation generated revenue of $13.7B at a net margin of 6.9%. Revenue grew 16.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 16.8%. Net debt stands at $5.8B. Fundamentals as of Aug 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $22.25 (bear case) to $66.45 (bull case); at $62.93, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 42% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −35% fair-value upside, at −42%, BALL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $1.78 per share, which is 4.9 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($53.86) versus Dividend Discount ($12.06). Highest evidence: EPV (74).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 52 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 65
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Ball Corporation supplies aluminum packaging products for the beverage, personal care, and household products industries in the United States, Brazil, and internationally. The company manufactures and sells aluminum beverage containers to fillers of carbonated soft drinks, beer, energy drinks, and other beverages.
Full company description
Ball Corporation supplies aluminum packaging products for the beverage, personal care, and household products industries in the United States, Brazil, and internationally. The company manufactures and sells aluminum beverage containers to fillers of carbonated soft drinks, beer, energy drinks, and other beverages. It manufactures and sells extruded aluminum aerosol containers, recloseable aluminum bottles, aluminum cups, and aluminum slugs. The company was founded in 1880 and is headquartered in Westminster, Colorado.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Ball Corporation reported revenue of $13.2B in FY2025 versus $13.9B in FY2021, a compound −1.4%/yr. Reported net income was $912M in FY2025, compounding +1.0%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +4.8 % · buybacks/dilution −0.1 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
BALL screens 72% overvalued. Compare with Smurfit Westrock Plc, →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- 5 Must-Read Analyst Questions From Ball’s Q2 Earnings Call
- Ball Stock Outlook: Is Wall Street Bullish or Bearish?
Peer Group
Packaging & Containers · 270 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Packaging & Containers median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 66/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Packaging & Containers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Smurfit Westrock Plc, SW | $49.25 | $22.66 | −54% |
| Packaging Corporation PKG | $233.94 | $122.63 | −48% |
| International Paper Company IP | $36.46 | $21.44 | −41% |
| Amcor plc AMCR | $46.52 | $18.79 | −60% |
| Crown Holdings CCK | $119.08 | $118.59 | +0% |
| Avery Dennison Corporation AVY | $173.07 | $113.05 | −35% |
| CCL Industries Inc CCLA | C$93.99 | C$77.64 | −17% |
| Stora Enso Oyj STEAV | €9.74 | €11.42 | +17% |
| SIG Group SIGN | CHF 13.66 | CHF 8.32 | −39% |
| Sonoco Products Company SON | $56.47 | $54.67 | −3% |
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