Packaging Corporation (PKG) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $20.8B

A solid business, but screening 52% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($183.38). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• The model range is unusually wide ($59.40 to $183.38). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
• Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 14, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $100.36 – $257.43 · fair‑value band $59.40 – $183.38 · the $257.05 price screens above the $122.63 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 14, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Packaging Corporation (PKG) currently trades at $257.05, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $122.63, implying the stock looks roughly 52.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Packaging Corporation generated revenue of $9.2B at a net margin of 8.0%. Revenue grew 10.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 16.3%. Net debt stands at $3.8B. Fundamentals as of Aug 14, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $59.40 (bear case) to $183.38 (bull case); at $257.05, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 42% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -23% fair-value upside, at -52%, PKG screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Multiples ($146.71) versus Asset-Based ($34.58). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Packaging Corporation of America manufactures and sells containerboard and uncoated freesheet (UFS) paper products in North America. The company operates through Packaging and Paper segments.

Full company description

Packaging Corporation of America manufactures and sells containerboard and uncoated freesheet (UFS) paper products in North America. The company operates through Packaging and Paper segments. The Packaging segment offers various linerboard and corrugated packaging products, such as conventional shipping containers used to protect and transport manufactured goods; multi-color boxes and displays that help to merchandise the packaged product in retail locations; and honeycomb protective packaging products, as well as packaging for meat, fresh fruit and vegetables, processed food, beverages, and other industrial and consumer products. This segment sells its corrugated products through a direct sales and marketing organization. The Paper segment manufactures and sells commodity and specialty papers, as well as communication papers, including cut-size office papers, and printing and converting papers; and white papers. This segment sells papers through its sales and marketing organization. Packaging Corporation of America was founded in 1867 and is headquartered in Lake Forest, Illinois.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Packaging Corporation reported revenue of $9.0B in FY2025 versus $7.7B in FY2021, a compound +3.8%/yr. Reported net income was $769M in FY2025, compounding −2.2%/yr from FY2021.

PKG screens 52% overvalued. Compare with Stora Enso Oyj →

Peer Group

Packaging & Containers · 274 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Packaging & Containers median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 45/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.