Packaging Corp of America (PKG) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $20.8B · ISIN US6951561090
What is Packaging Corp of America really worth?
Packaging Corp of America
PKG · US
A solid business, but trading 91% above our fair value of $122.63.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Sep 2, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 2 days ago
Share price −8.2% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($183.38). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide ($59.40 to $183.38). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $100.36 – $257.43 · fair‑value band $59.40 – $183.38 · the $234.57 price screens above the $122.63 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 2, 2026.
Analysis
Packaging Corp of America (PKG) currently trades at $234.57, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $122.63, implying the stock looks roughly 91.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $146.71 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the $234.57 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $34.58, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Packaging Corp of America generated revenue of $9.2B at a net margin of 8.0%. Revenue grew 10.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 16.3%. Net debt stands at $3.8B. Fundamentals as of Sep 2, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $59.40 (bear case) to $183.38 (bull case); at $234.57, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 29% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −35% fair-value upside, at −48%, PKG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $2.19 per share, which is 1.8 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($146.71) versus Asset-Based ($34.58). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (77).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 2, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 58 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 62
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Packaging Corporation of America manufactures and sells containerboard and uncoated freesheet (UFS) paper products in North America. The company operates through Packaging and Paper segments.
Full company description
Packaging Corporation of America manufactures and sells containerboard and uncoated freesheet (UFS) paper products in North America. The company operates through Packaging and Paper segments. The Packaging segment offers various linerboard and corrugated packaging products, such as conventional shipping containers used to protect and transport manufactured goods; multi-color boxes and displays that help to merchandise the packaged product in retail locations; and honeycomb protective packaging products, as well as packaging for meat, fresh fruit and vegetables, processed food, beverages, and other industrial and consumer products. This segment sells its corrugated products through a direct sales and marketing organization. The Paper segment manufactures and sells commodity and specialty papers, as well as communication papers, including cut-size office papers, and printing and converting papers; and white papers. This segment sells papers through its sales and marketing organization. Packaging Corporation of America was founded in 1867 and is headquartered in Lake Forest, Illinois.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Packaging Corp of America reported revenue of $9.0B in FY2025 versus $7.7B in FY2021, a compound +3.8%/yr. Reported net income was $769M in FY2025, compounding −2.2%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +4.2 % · buybacks/dilution +0.8 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
PKG screens 91% overvalued. Compare with Smurfit Westrock Plc, →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Industrial Packaging Stocks Q2 Highlights: Silgan Holdings (NYSE:SLGN)
- What Are Wall Street Analysts' Target Price for Packaging Corporation of America Stock?
- Packaging Corp. (PKG) Up 6.7% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?
- Q2 Earnings Highlights: Graphic Packaging Holding (NYSE:GPK) Vs The Rest Of The Industrial Packaging Stocks
Peer Group
Packaging & Containers · 271 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Packaging & Containers median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 45/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Packaging & Containers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 2, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Smurfit Westrock Plc, SW | $49.25 | $22.66 | −54% |
| International Paper Company IP | $36.46 | $21.44 | −41% |
| Amcor plc AMCR | $46.52 | $18.79 | −60% |
| Ball Corporation BALL | $61.67 | $36.57 | −41% |
| Crown Holdings CCK | $119.08 | $118.59 | +0% |
| Avery Dennison Corporation AVY | $173.07 | $113.05 | −35% |
| CCL Industries Inc CCLA | C$93.99 | C$77.64 | −17% |
| Stora Enso Oyj STEAV | €9.74 | €11.42 | +17% |
| SIG Group SIGN | CHF 13.66 | CHF 8.32 | −39% |
| Sonoco Products Company SON | $56.47 | $54.67 | −3% |
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