International Paper (IP) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $20.1B · ISIN US4601461035
What is International Paper really worth?
International Paper
IP · US
Below-average quality, and trading another 100% above our fair value of $18.22.
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Sep 3, 2026
From 3 valuation models · updated yesterday
Share price −13.9% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($22.18). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (20/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $25.50 – $56.33 · fair‑value band $14.41 – $22.18 · the $36.44 price screens above the $18.22 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 3, 2026.
Analysis
International Paper (IP) currently trades at $36.44, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $18.22, implying the stock looks roughly 100.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 20/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $21.43 per share, and 0 of the 3 models we run sit above the $36.44 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $18.76, and 3 of the 3 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Over the trailing twelve months, International Paper generated revenue of $24.3B at a net margin of −13.8%. Revenue grew 13.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of −16.0%. Net debt stands at $9.7B. Fundamentals as of Sep 3, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $14.41 (bear case) to $22.18 (bull case); at $36.44, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 26% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −35% fair-value upside, at −50%, IP screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 3 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount ($21.43) versus Asset-Based ($18.76). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (69).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 3, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 21 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 37
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
International Paper Company produces and sells renewable fiber-based packaging in North America, Latin America, Europe, South America, and North Africa. It operates through two segments, Packaging Solutions North America and Packaging Solutions EMEA.
Full company description
International Paper Company produces and sells renewable fiber-based packaging in North America, Latin America, Europe, South America, and North Africa. It operates through two segments, Packaging Solutions North America and Packaging Solutions EMEA. The company offers linerboard, medium, whitetop, and saturating kraft; and converts containerboard into corrugated boxes, bulk bins, shipping containers and specialty packaging through its converting facilities. Its products support customers in various industries, such as food and beverage, agriculture, industrial manufacturing, personal care pharmaceuticals and consumer goods. The company was founded in 1898 and is headquartered in Memphis, Tennessee.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
International Paper reported revenue of $24.9B in FY2025 versus $19.4B in FY2021, a compound +6.5%/yr. Reported net income was −$3.5B in FY2025.
IP screens 100% overvalued. Compare with Smurfit Westrock Plc, →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- International Paper (IP) Could Be 8% Undervalued On Its Margin Recovery Narrative
- International Paper (IP) Stock Still Looks Like A Bargain On Price Hike Scrutiny
Peer Group
Packaging & Containers · 270 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Packaging & Containers median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 66/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Packaging & Containers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 3, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Smurfit Westrock Plc, SW | $49.25 | $22.66 | −54% |
| Packaging Corporation PKG | $233.94 | $122.63 | −48% |
| Amcor plc AMCR | $46.52 | $18.79 | −60% |
| Ball Corporation BALL | $61.67 | $36.57 | −41% |
| Crown Holdings CCK | $119.08 | $118.59 | +0% |
| Avery Dennison Corporation AVY | $173.07 | $113.05 | −35% |
| CCL Industries Inc CCLA | C$93.99 | C$77.64 | −17% |
| Stora Enso Oyj STEAV | €9.74 | €11.42 | +17% |
| SIG Group SIGN | CHF 13.66 | CHF 8.32 | −39% |
| Sonoco Products Company SON | $56.47 | $54.67 | −3% |
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